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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Aurubis AG processes metal concentrates and recycling materials in Germany.The company processes scrap metals, organic and inorganic metalbearing recycling raw materials, and industrial residues.It also offers wire rods and specialty wires, shapes, bars and profiles, industrial rolled products, and architectural rolled products.


In addition, the company also produces gold, silver, lead, lead-bismuth alloy, lead-antimony litharge, tellurium metals, and tellurium dioxide.Further, the company engages in the recycling of copper, copper scrap, alloy scrap and other recycling materials, precious metals, and other non-ferrous metals; and product businesses.Additionally, it produces sulfuric acid, iron-silicate, smelter intermediates, and selenium, as well as produces various products from purchased copper and copper alloy scrap, electronic scrap, and industrial residues.


The company was formerly known as Norddeutsche Affinerie AG and changed its name to Aurubis AG in April 2009.Aurubis AG was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Hamburg, Germany.

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1.b. Last Insights on NDA

Aurubis AG's recent performance was driven by a strong Q1 earnings report, with the company citing higher metal prices and resilient demand for copper products as key supports. The company raised its full-year guidance, despite facing cash flow and margin pressures. Additionally, Aurubis' intrinsic discount is near 27%, suggesting potential for growth. The company's sound start to fiscal year 2025-2026 and strategic expansions have garnered attention from investors, with institutions holding a 39% ownership stake. A recent valuation check highlights a 77% return over the past year.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Aurubis' Q1 Results Exceed Expectations, Raises Full-Year Guidance

Aurubis started the new fiscal year on a strong note, with revenues increasing by 25% to EUR 5.3 billion, primarily due to higher precious metal revenues driven by the rise in metal prices. Operating EBT was EUR 105 million, driven by higher metal prices and a higher metals result. The company's actual EPS came out at EUR 7.38, significantly beating estimates of EUR 1.78. EBITDA was EUR 164 million, down from EUR 184 million last year, reflecting anticipated higher costs. Gross profit was slightly lower at EUR 426 million, and operating EBIT came in at EUR 101 million.

Publication Date: Feb -08

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth: Revenues surged 25% to EUR 5.3 billion, driven by elevated precious metal prices.
  • Operating EBITDA Decline: EBITDA fell to EUR 164 million (vs. EUR 184 million prior), reflecting higher costs despite stronger metal prices.
  • Full-Year Guidance Raised: Operating EBT guidance lifted to EUR 375–475 million, citing robust copper demand and favorable pricing.
  • Operating ROCE Drop: ROCE slid to 7.8% (vs. 11.7% prior), due to lower prior-year earnings and higher capital employed from investments.
  • Free Cash Flow Challenge: Free cash flow before dividend was EUR -103 million, with net cash flow slightly negative at EUR -8 million.

Financial Performance and Margins

The operating ROCE on a rolling 4-quarter basis decreased to 7.8%, down from 11.7% the year before, reflecting lower earnings in prior year quarters and higher capital employed from growth investments. The company's net cash flow was slightly negative at minus EUR 8 million, and free cash flow before dividend was minus EUR 103 million. The operating EBT guidance for fiscal year '25, '26 has been raised to EUR 375-475 million, and operating EBITDA to EUR 655-755 million.

Guidance and Outlook

Aurubis has secured a high share of its supply for calendar year 2026 and is focused on securing supply for Aurubis Richmond in line with the planned ramp-up. The company's outlook for key macro drivers has improved, with higher metal prices positively impacting the metal result. Earnings from copper products are expected to remain strong, and sulfuric acid demand is stable. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 2.6%.

Valuation and Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 11.87 and an EV/EBITDA of 7.05, the market seems to have priced in a reasonable growth trajectory for Aurubis. The company's ROE stands at 11.91%, indicating a decent return on equity. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 0.33, suggesting a healthy debt position. The raised guidance and positive outlook should support the stock's performance in the coming quarters.

3. NewsRoom

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Aurubis (XTRA:NDA) Valuation Check After Strong 1 Year Return And Intrinsic Discount Claims

Mar -23

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Troilus, Boliden sign MoU for copper-gold concentrate supply

Mar -18

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Troilus Mining Signs Memorandum of Understanding With Boliden for Long-Term Copper-Gold Concentrate Offtake

Mar -17

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Troilus Signs Memorandum of Understanding With Boliden for Long‑Term Copper‑Gold Concentrate Offtake

Mar -17

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Ivanhoe Mines Q4 Earnings Call Highlights

Feb -24

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Aurubis AG (AIAGF) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Market Challenges with ...

Feb -13

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Aurubis AG Just Recorded A 349% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Feb -08

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Aurubis Q1 Earnings Call Highlights

Feb -05

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (12.11%)

6. Segments

Custom Smelting & Products

Expected Growth: 12%

Aurubis AG's Custom Smelting & Products segment growth of 12% is driven by increasing demand for copper products, expansion into new markets, and strategic investments in production capacity. Additionally, the company's focus on sustainability and recycling, as well as its ability to pass on higher raw material costs to customers, contribute to its growth momentum.

Multimetal Recycling

Expected Growth: 16%

Aurubis AG's Multimetal Recycling segment growth of 16% is driven by increasing demand for sustainable and environmentally friendly practices, stringent regulations on waste management, and rising copper prices. Additionally, the company's strategic expansion into new markets, investments in technology, and efficient recycling processes contribute to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Copper Cathodes

High-purity copper cathodes for use in electrical and electronic applications

Copper Rods

High-quality copper rods for use in electrical and industrial applications

Copper Strips

Thin, flexible copper strips for use in electrical and electronic applications

Copper Alloys

High-strength, corrosion-resistant copper alloys for use in industrial and engineering applications

Precious Metals

High-purity gold, silver, and other precious metals for use in jewelry, coins, and other applications

Selenium

High-purity selenium for use in glass production, pigments, and other applications

Tellurium

High-purity tellurium for use in steel production, catalysts, and other applications

Recycling Services

Comprehensive recycling services for copper and other non-ferrous metals

8. Aurubis AG's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Aurubis AG operates in the copper production industry, which has a moderate threat of substitutes. While there are alternative materials available, copper remains a widely used and essential material in various industries.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Aurubis AG's customers are primarily industrial companies, which have limited bargaining power due to their dependence on copper as a raw material.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Aurubis AG relies on a diverse range of suppliers for raw materials, which reduces the bargaining power of individual suppliers. However, the company is still exposed to fluctuations in global commodity prices.

Threat Of New Entrants

The copper production industry has significant barriers to entry, including high capital costs, complex production processes, and environmental regulations, making it difficult for new entrants to join the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The copper production industry is highly competitive, with several established players competing for market share. Aurubis AG faces intense rivalry from companies like Glencore, Freeport-McMoRan, and Antofagasta.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 5.83%
Debt Cost 10.56%
Equity Weight 94.17%
Equity Cost 10.83%
WACC 10.81%
Leverage 6.19%

11. Quality Control: Aurubis AG passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Aurubis

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 8.7

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 3.1

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Central Asia Metals

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 4.3

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Stock-Card
Brenntag

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 5.6

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Evonik

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 2.8

Quality: 2.8

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
KGHM Polska Miedz

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 1.2

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Mondi

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 2.8

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

177.6$

Current Price

177.6$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows