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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Finnair Oyj engages in the airline business in Europe and Asia.It also offers package tours under the Aurinkomatkat-Suntours and Finnair Holidays brand names.As of December 31, 2021, the company operated a fleet of 60 aircraft, which included 25 wide-body and 35 narrowbody aircraft.


In addition, it provides technical, catering, and financial business services.The company was incorporated in 1923 and is headquartered in Vantaa, Finland.

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1.b. Last Insights on FIA1S

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1.c. Company Highlights

2. Finnair's Q3 2025 Earnings: Solid Performance Amidst Challenges

Finnair reported a revenue increase of 2% in Q3 2025, despite the negative impact of industrial action, which led to the cancellation of over 300 flights and a direct impact of EUR 18 million on the operating result. The comparable operating result was EUR 51 million. The company's EPS came in at EUR 0.145, beating estimates of EUR 0.09667. The revenue was approximately in line with expectations, with the company's ability to bounce back from disruptions being a positive factor. The gross improvement of EUR 70 million due to volume growth was a notable highlight.

Publication Date: Nov -21

📋 Highlights
  • Strike Impact and Financial Resilience:: Industrial action caused 300 flight cancellations and EUR 18 million direct operating loss, but comparable operating result reached EUR 51 million.
  • Revenue Growth Amid Disruptions:: Revenue increased by 2% despite cancellations, with volume growth contributing EUR 70 million in gross improvement.
  • Fleet Adjustments and Future Plans:: Wet-leased 330s will return to Finnair in 2026, reducing fleet size from 8 to 7; new destinations like Helsinki-Toronto will reopen.
  • Environmental Costs and Outlook:: Q4 environmental/SAF costs at EUR 10 million, with reduced impact in 2026 due to EU ETS benefits; 2025 guidance narrowed to EUR 30–60 million.
  • Asia Traffic Success:: Helsinki-Japan route expanded to 25 weekly frequencies, becoming the largest European-Japanese operator; Far East Asia traffic outperformed.

Operational Performance

Finnair's operational performance was marked by a high level of service quality and flight regularity, with a score of 99.3 in the weeks following the industrial actions. The company's traffic in Far East Asia, particularly in Japan, was a success, with increased frequencies and capacity. Finnair flew 25 weekly frequencies between Helsinki and Japan, making it the biggest operator between Europe and Japan. As CEO Turkka Kuusisto mentioned, "we monitor the utilization of the fleet on a daily basis and would fly more to Tokyo if we had more landing slots," highlighting the potential for further growth in the region.

Fleet and Capacity Planning

Finnair's fleet and capacity planning are undergoing changes, with the wet lease arrangement with Qantas set to continue until the winter season of '26. The company has deployed 2 A330s on a dry lease basis to Qantas, and the fleet size is expected to decrease from 8 to 7 in the coming months. The narrow-body fleet is being evaluated, with discussions ongoing with OEMs, but no tangible news is available yet.

Outlook and Valuation

Finnair provided an outlook and guidance for 2025, with a capacity increase of 2% and revenue of approximately EUR 3.1 billion. The comparable operating result range was narrowed to EUR 30 million to EUR 60 million. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 4.8%. With a P/E Ratio of 52.38 and an EV/EBITDA of 4.55, the market is pricing in a certain level of growth. The Dividend Yield of 4.09% is also attractive. Given the current valuation multiples, it remains to be seen whether Finnair can meet the expected growth and deliver on its strategic objectives.

3. NewsRoom

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Airline launching 12 new flights to European destinations

Nov -16

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Finnair (HLSE:FIA1S) Margin Weakness Challenges Bullish Growth Narrative Despite Forecasted 73.5% EPS Surge

Nov -01

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Finnair Oyj (STU:FAI0) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with Strong ...

Oct -30

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Ready For Takeoff? This Aviation Stock On 140% Run Eyes Entry As Earnings, Sales Surge

Oct -24

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Is Finnair’s Engine Exchange Deal Reshaping the Investment Case for FTAI Aviation (FTAI)?

Oct -16

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FTAI Aviation Partners with Finnair to Provide Perpetual Power Engine Exchanges

Oct -13

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Avios Subscription Service Powered by Plusgrade, Unlocks Predictable Rewards for Finnair Plus Members

Jul -03

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.39%)

6. Segments

Passenger

Expected Growth: 3.5%

Finnair Oyj's 3.5% passenger growth is driven by increasing demand for travel to and from Asia, particularly China, leveraging Helsinki's strategic location. Additionally, the airline's focus on premium travel, modernized fleet, and enhanced customer experience contribute to its growth. Furthermore, Finnair's cost-cutting measures and efficient operations enable it to maintain a competitive edge in the market.

Travel Services

Expected Growth: 2.8%

Finnair Oyj's Travel Services segment growth of 2.8% is driven by increasing demand for air travel, particularly in the Asian market, coupled with the airline's strategic focus on premium travel and cargo services. Additionally, investments in digitalization and customer experience have improved operational efficiency and enhanced customer loyalty.

Freight

Expected Growth: 2.2%

Finnair Oyj's 2.2% freight growth is driven by increasing e-commerce demand, particularly in the Asia-Europe route, and a rise in pharmaceutical shipments. Additionally, the airline's strategic partnerships and investments in digitalization have improved operational efficiency, enabling it to capitalize on growing cargo volumes.

Ancillary

Expected Growth: 4.1%

Finnair Oyj's ancillary growth of 4.1% is driven by increased demand for premium services, successful implementation of dynamic pricing, and expansion of online booking capabilities. Additionally, the airline's focus on personalized travel experiences, such as tailored meal options and extra legroom seats, has contributed to the growth.

7. Detailed Products

Scheduled Flights

Finnair operates scheduled flights to over 100 destinations in Europe, Asia, and North America, offering a range of fare options and classes of service.

Cargo Services

Finnair Cargo provides air cargo transportation services for a wide range of goods, including perishables, pharmaceuticals, and e-commerce shipments.

Travel Services

Finnair offers a range of travel services, including hotel bookings, car rentals, and travel insurance, to complement its flight services.

Finnair Plus Loyalty Program

Finnair's loyalty program rewards frequent flyers with points that can be redeemed for flights, upgrades, and other benefits.

Airport and In-Flight Services

Finnair offers a range of airport and in-flight services, including check-in, baggage handling, and in-flight meals and drinks.

Corporate Travel Services

Finnair offers customized travel solutions for corporate customers, including discounted fares and tailored travel management services.

8. Finnair Oyj's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Finnair operates in a highly competitive industry, and customers have various alternatives for air travel. However, the threat of substitutes is mitigated by Finnair's strong brand reputation and loyalty program.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Finnair's customers have significant bargaining power due to the availability of alternative airlines and online travel agencies. This forces Finnair to maintain competitive pricing and high-quality services.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Finnair has a diverse supplier base, and no single supplier has significant bargaining power. This allows Finnair to negotiate favorable contracts and maintain a stable supply chain.

Threat Of New Entrants

The airline industry has significant barriers to entry, including high capital requirements and regulatory hurdles. This limits the threat of new entrants and allows Finnair to maintain its market position.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The airline industry is highly competitive, with multiple players competing for market share. Finnair faces intense rivalry from other European carriers, which drives down prices and increases marketing expenses.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 65.06%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 34.94%
Equity Cost 11.38%
WACC 6.54%
Leverage 186.22%

11. Quality Control: Finnair Oyj passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Enter Air

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 7.6

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 6.3

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Toscana Aeroporti

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 3.1

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 5.7

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DO & CO

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 8.3

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 0.6

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 4.3

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Norwegian Air

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 7.9

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 2.7

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Chorus Aviation

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 2.2

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Finnair

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 1.5

Yield: 1.9

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

2.81$

Current Price

2.81$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows