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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

MDA Ltd.designs, manufactures, and services space robotics, satellite systems and components, and intelligence systems in Canada, the United States, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and internationally.It offers geointelligence solutions that provide satellite-generated imagery and analytic services to deliver critical and value-added insights in the areas of national security, climate change monitoring, and maritime surveillance.


The company also provides robotics and space operations that enable humanity's exploration by providing autonomous robotics and vision sensors that operate in space and on the surfaces of the moon and mars.In addition, it offers satellite systems and spacecraft to enable space-based services, including space-based broadband internet connectivity from low earth orbit satellite constellations.Further, the company provides products and services of defense intelligence systems.


It serves government agencies, prime contractors, and space companies.The company was formerly known as Neptune Acquisition Holdings Inc.and changed its name to MDA Ltd.


in March 2021.MDA Ltd.was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Brampton, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on MDA

MDA Space's recent performance has been impacted by several factors. The company's loss of a $1.8 billion contract with EchoStar Corporation, announced by RBC, has raised concerns about its growth potential. Additionally, a possible shareholder class action investigation by Siskinds LLP, related to the company's disclosure about the EchoStar contract, has added uncertainty. The upcoming release of MDA Space's third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 14, 2025, may also influence investor sentiment. A price target raise to $53 by RBC priorily may contrast with these negative drivers.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. MDA Space's 2025 Earnings: A Record Year with Strong Growth Prospects

MDA Space delivered a record performance in 2025, with revenues growing to $1.6 billion, a 50% increase year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA expanding to $324 million, up 49% versus last year. The company's earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.19, below analyst estimates of $0.336. Gross profit for the year was $410 million, a 45% increase over 2024, with a gross margin of 25.1%. The company's strong financial performance was driven by growth across its business areas, including Satellite Systems, Robotics & Space Operations, and Geointelligence.

Publication Date: Mar -08

📋 Highlights
  • Record Revenue & EBITDA Growth: 2025 revenue hit $1.6 billion (+50% YoY), adjusted EBITDA rose to $324 million (+49% YoY).
  • 2026 Guidance: Revenue projected at $1.7B–$1.9B (10% growth midpoint), adjusted EBITDA of $320M–$370M with 18–20% margin.
  • Backlog & Pipeline Strength: Ended 2025 with $4 billion backlog and $40 billion 5-year pipeline, including $10 billion in government opportunities.
  • Satellite Systems Growth: 85% YoY revenue increase, driven by communication satellite demand and constellation projects.
  • Capital Expenditures & Free Cash Flow: $242 million CAPEX in 2025, generating $165 million free cash flow amid growth investments.

Segment Performance

The Satellite Systems business delivered year-over-year growth of 85%, driven by increasing demand for communication satellite solutions and constellation projects. Robotics & Space Operations revenue grew 11% year-over-year, driven by higher volumes of work on the Canadarm3 program. Geointelligence revenue also increased, driven by the volume of work on programs, including a $45 million authorization to proceed contract awarded by the Canadian Space Agency.

Outlook and Guidance

MDA Space expects revenues to grow to between $1.7 billion and $1.9 billion in 2026, representing a year-over-year growth of approximately 10% at the midpoint of the guidance. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $320 million and $370 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18% to 20%. The company's guidance is supported by a strong backlog of $4 billion and a pipeline of $40 billion in cumulative opportunities over the next 5 years.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

Using the company's current valuation metrics, we can assess what's priced in. The P/E Ratio is 47.07, indicating a relatively high valuation. However, the EV/EBITDA ratio is 20.46, which is more reasonable. The company's ROE is 8.38%, and ROIC is 5.51%, indicating a decent return on equity and invested capital. With a strong pipeline and growth prospects, MDA Space is well-positioned to capitalize on opportunities in the growing space and defense industry.

Capital Allocation and M&A Pipeline

MDA Space is focused on expanding geographically through targeted acquisitions and executing its organic growth plan, which includes a $250 million CapEx budget at the midpoint of the year. The company has a strong pipeline and continues to explore vertical integration, geographic expansion, and other strategic targets. As Mike Greenley stated, "We have two priorities: expanding geographically through targeted acquisitions and executing our organic growth plan."

3. NewsRoom

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MDA Space Prices IPO In the U.S.

10:28

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MDA Space US IPO And Dual Listing Reshape Funding And Growth Options

09:12

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MDA SPACE ANNOUNCES PRICING OF INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING IN THE UNITED STATES

00:07

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Toronto’s MDA Space Eyes NYSE Listing as Defense Boom Fuels Demand

Mar -11

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MDA Space Announces Initial Public Offering in the United States; Shares Rose Near 6% In Canada Today

Mar -10

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MDA SPACE ANNOUNCES INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING IN THE UNITED STATES

Mar -10

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Assessing MDA Space (TSX:MDA) Valuation After Record 2025 Results And New 2026 Guidance

Mar -06

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Why MDA Space (TSX:MDA) Is Up 5.4% After Record 2025 Results And Montreal Factory Scale-Up

Mar -06

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.00%)

6. Segments

Satellite Systems

Expected Growth: 8.37%

MDA Ltd.'s Satellite Systems segment growth of 8.37% is driven by increasing demand for Earth observation and satellite-based services, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, investments in R&D, cost savings initiatives, and a strong order backlog contribute to the segment's growth.

Robotics and Space Operations

Expected Growth: 10.4%

MDA Ltd.'s Robotics and Space Operations segment growth of 10.4% is driven by increasing demand for satellite-based services, government investments in space exploration, and adoption of automation and robotics in industries such as manufacturing and logistics. Additionally, the company's diversified portfolio of space-based solutions and strategic partnerships contribute to its growth momentum.

Geointelligence

Expected Growth: 12.47%

MDA Ltd.'s Geointelligence segment growth of 12.47% is driven by increasing demand for satellite-based surveillance and monitoring, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, advancements in AI and machine learning are enhancing the accuracy and efficiency of geospatial data analysis, further fueling growth.

7. Detailed Products

Geospatial Analytics

MDA Ltd.'s Geospatial Analytics provides advanced data analytics and insights to help organizations make informed decisions. It offers a range of services, including data integration, data visualization, and predictive analytics.

Earth Observation

MDA Ltd.'s Earth Observation provides high-resolution satellite imagery and data to support a wide range of applications, including land use mapping, natural resource management, and environmental monitoring.

Robotics and Automation

MDA Ltd.'s Robotics and Automation offers customized robotic solutions for various industries, including manufacturing, healthcare, and aerospace.

Satellite Communications

MDA Ltd.'s Satellite Communications provides secure and reliable communication services, including satellite-based broadband, narrowband, and broadcast solutions.

Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR)

MDA Ltd.'s ISR solutions provide advanced sensing and surveillance capabilities for defense, security, and commercial applications.

8. MDA Ltd.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for MDA Ltd. is medium due to the availability of alternative products in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is high due to the presence of a large number of customers who can easily switch to competitors.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is low due to the presence of multiple suppliers in the market, giving MDA Ltd. the power to negotiate prices.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is medium due to the moderate barriers to entry in the industry, such as regulatory requirements and capital investments.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the presence of several established competitors in the market, leading to a competitive pricing strategy.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 29.70%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 70.30%
Equity Cost 4.64%
WACC 4.44%
Leverage 42.25%

11. Quality Control: MDA Ltd. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Magellan Aerospace

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 5.4

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 6.7

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Park Aerospace

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 0.9

Growth: 2.4

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Cadre Holdings

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 2.6

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Héroux-Devtek

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
MDA

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 5.2

Growth: 9.3

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
VirTra

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

42.94$

Current Price

42.94$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows