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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Commerzbank AG provides banking and capital market services to private and small business customers, multinational groups, financial service providers, and institutional clients worldwide.It operates through two segments, Private and Small-Business Customers, and Corporate Clients.The company offers accounts, commercial payments, payment enabling, clearing and custody, and other services; trade services, including documentary collection, letters of credit, guarantees, trade facilitation, supply chain financing, buyer's credit, and forfaiting services; and bilateral loans, club deals, Schuldschein instruments, syndicated loans, bonds, private placements, other debt instruments, and Islamic financing services.


It also provides money market, and commodities and precious metals products; interest, currency, and liquidity management services, as well as wealth management services.The company operates approximately 790 branches.Commerzbank AG was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

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1.b. Last Insights on CBK

Commerzbank's recent performance has been impacted by a pullback in its share price, with a 3.7% decline in one day and a 4.7% decline over the last 30 days. The bank's valuation has been reassessed by investors, with a focus on its current fundamentals, including €11,320 revenue and €2,427 net income. Despite a record operating result for 2025, with an 18% increase to €4.5 billion, the bank's share price has been under pressure. A share buyback program has been announced, which could have a positive impact on shareholder returns.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Commerzbank's 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Commerzbank AG reported a robust financial performance in 2025, with a record operating result of EUR 4.5 billion, an 18% increase from the previous year. The bank's total revenues grew by 10% to EUR 12.2 billion, driven by a 7% increase in net commission income and stable net interest income. The earnings per share (EPS) came in at EUR 0.652, beating analyst estimates of EUR 0.544. The return on tangible equity before restructuring expenses reached 10%, the highest since the global financial crisis. The bank's cost-income ratio improved by 2 percentage points to 57%, indicating efficient cost management.

Publication Date: Feb -12

📋 Highlights
  • Record Operating Result:: Achieved EUR 4.5 billion in 2025, a 18% increase from prior year.
  • RoTE Milestone:: Return on tangible equity before restructuring expenses hit 10%, the highest since the global financial crisis.
  • Shareholder Returns:: Returned EUR 2.7 billion to shareholders in 2025, with total capital returns since 2022 reaching EUR 5.8 billion.
  • Revenue Growth:: Total revenues rose 10% to EUR 12.2 billion, with net commission income up 7% and stable net interest income despite lower interest rates.
  • 2026 Strategic Targets:: Aims for a net result above EUR 3.2 billion, RoTE over 11.2%, and a cost-income ratio of 54%, reflecting improved efficiency.

Segment Performance

The Corporate Clients segment had a strong fourth quarter, driven by loan growth, capital markets business, and deposit volumes. The Private Customers and Small Business Customers segment also saw increased revenues, driven by the securities business and deposit business. mBank maintained good profitability, with a positive outlook for 2026. The bank's Momentum strategy has paid off, driving profitable growth through capital-accretive loan growth, smart deposit management, and a strong focus on client needs.

Outlook and Guidance

For 2026, Commerzbank expects a supportive macroeconomic environment, with a GDP growth of 0.9% and inflation close to the 2% target. The bank targets a net result above EUR 3.2 billion, with a return on tangible equity of more than 11.2%, and a CET1 ratio above 14%. The bank guides for 7% growth in net commission income and a risk result of around EUR 850 million in 2026. The cost/income ratio target for 2026 is 54%, well ahead of the original target of 56%.

Valuation

Commerzbank's current valuation metrics indicate a reasonable price for the stock. The Price-to-Tangible Book Value (P/TBV) is around 1.28, and the Dividend Yield is 1.88%. These metrics suggest that the stock is fairly valued, considering the bank's strong financial performance and growth prospects. As the bank continues to grow and improve its efficiency, investors can expect a stable return on their investment.

Upside Potential

Areas of potential upside for Commerzbank include risk results, guided at EUR 850 million, historically below actual results; fair value predictions; Net Commission Income, targeted at 7% growth; and cost discipline. A steeper yield curve could also bring additional benefits to the bank's Net Interest Income (NII). With a strong Momentum strategy in place, Commerzbank is well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities and deliver value to its shareholders.

3. NewsRoom

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Treasury Yields Rose This Week on Oil, Inflation Jitters

Mar -13

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Treasurys Are Little Changed Amid Iran Fighting, Slew of Pre-War Data

Mar -13

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Dollar Rises to 3.5-Month High Amid Growing Middle East Conflict

Mar -13

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Eurozone Bond Yields Rise as Oil Price Surpasses $100; 10-Year Bund Yield Nears 3%

Mar -13

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European Stocks Decline in Thursday Trading Amid Investor Concern of Prolonged Middle East War as Oil Prices Surge

Mar -12

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Commerzbank on Overnight News

Mar -12

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Commerzbank on Overnight News

Mar -11

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European Stocks Surge in Tuesday Trading as Oil Concerns Ease Among Investors

Mar -10

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.51%)

6. Segments

Private and Small Business Customers

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Commerzbank AG's retail banking services and products targeting individuals and small businesses will drive growth, fueled by increasing demand for digital banking, rising SMEs, and a growing need for financial inclusion.

Corporate Clients

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Commerzbank's Corporate Clients segment is expected to grow driven by increasing demand for tailored financial solutions among large corporations, financial institutions, and multinational companies, as well as the bank's strong reputation and expertise in providing bespoke services.

Others

Expected Growth: 5.1%

Driven by increasing demand for digital payment solutions, growth in e-commerce, and strategic partnerships, the 'Others' segment from Commerzbank AG is poised for steady growth.

Consolidation

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Consolidation from Commerzbank AG drives growth through enhanced risk management, improved capital allocation, and increased transparency, leading to increased operational efficiency and competitiveness.

7. Detailed Products

Corporate Banking

Commerzbank's Corporate Banking segment provides a range of financial services to large and multinational corporations, including cash management, trade finance, and risk management solutions.

Private and Small-Business Customers

This segment offers a range of banking services to private individuals and small businesses, including current accounts, credit cards, loans, and investment products.

Mittelstandsbank

This segment provides specialized banking services to medium-sized businesses in Germany, including financing, cash management, and risk management solutions.

Central and Eastern Europe

This segment provides banking services to corporate and private clients in Central and Eastern Europe, including Poland, Czech Republic, and Hungary.

Markets and Commodities

This segment provides a range of investment products and services, including equities, fixed income, currencies, and commodities.

8. Commerzbank AG's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Commerzbank AG faces moderate threat from substitutes due to the presence of alternative financial institutions and digital payment systems.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Commerzbank AG's customers have high bargaining power due to the availability of multiple banking options and the ease of switching banks.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Commerzbank AG has a strong bargaining power over its suppliers due to its large scale of operations and negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low for Commerzbank AG due to the high barriers to entry in the banking industry, including regulatory hurdles and capital requirements.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry in the banking industry is high, with many established players competing for market share and customers.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 77.07%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 22.93%
Equity Cost 9.69%
WACC 5.26%
Leverage 336.19%

11. Quality Control: Commerzbank AG passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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CaixaBank

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 6.9

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 7.3

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SEB

A-Score: 7.0/10

Value: 5.7

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 9.3

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Intesa Sanpaolo

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 7.3

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Société Générale

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.3

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BNP Paribas

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Commerzbank

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 5.2

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 3.1

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

29.59$

Current Price

29.59$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows