Repsol, S.A. (REP.MC) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Repsol, S.A. operates as an integrated energy company worldwide.Its Exploration and Production segment engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas reserves.The company's Industrial segment is involved in refining activities and petrochemicals business; the trading and transportation of crude oil and oil products; and the sale, transportation, and regasification of natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Its Commercial and Renewables segment engages in the low carbon power generation and renewable sources; sale of gas and power; mobility and sale of oil products; and liquified petroleum gas activities.The company also offers asphalt products; installs, operates, and manages service stations; provides maritime services; constructs and operates oil refineries; refines and markets hydrocarbons; offers human resource services; distributes and supplies electricity; and develops new energy source, solar, and wind projects, as well as produces and markets chemical products, lubricants, and biofuels.Further, it is involved in fuel and special products marketing, research, trading and transport, insurance and reinsurance, technology development, and financing activities; develops nanoparticles and nanofibers for material, energy, and biomedicine applications; provides blockchain technology for retail, energy, and automotive sectors; produces synthetic oil cloths; invests in liquefaction plant project; and offers water treatment technology management services.

The company was formerly known as Repsol YPF, S.A. and changed its name to Repsol, S.A. in May 2012.Repsol, S.A. was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Madrid, Spain.

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1.b. Last Insights on REP

Breaking News: Repsol S A has not reported any recent earnings releases however Venture Global Inc a liquefied natural gas supplier reported better than expected fourth quarter earnings on March 2 2026. The companys earnings guidance fell short but still managed to lift shares. Analysts at various firms have not provided any recommendations for Repsol S A based on this news. Repsol S A recent news and earnings releases do not seem to have any direct correlation with Venture Global Inc performance.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	20.7
Change Percentage	3.29%
Open	20.3
Previous Close	20.04
Market Cap ( Millions)	22881
Volume	13069089
Year High	20.82
Year Low	9.41
M A 50	16.7
M A 200	14.87

FCF Yield	6.17%
Dividend Yield	4.37%
ROE	7.85%
Debt / Equity	53.41%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	186.65%
Price To Book	0.93
Price Earnings Ratio	12.3
Price To FCF	16.2
Price To sales	0.42
EV / EBITDA	6.07

2. Repsol's 2025 Earnings: A Year of Strategic Progress

Repsol's financial performance in 2025 was marked by a strong execution, with adjusted net income coming in at EUR 2.6 billion, down 15% from 2024. Earnings per share (EPS) stood at EUR 0.64, beating analyst estimates of EUR 0.559. Cash flow from operations was EUR 5.4 billion, up 8% year-over-year, driven by a robust performance across all divisions. The company's net debt position was EUR 4.5 billion at the end of 2025, with a flat debt over the year.

Publication Date: Feb -22

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    ...:
                                                ...
Adjusted Net Income & Cash Flow:
                                                2025: Adjusted net income at EUR 2.6B (-15% YoY), cash flow from operations rose 8% to EUR 5.4B.
Carbon Intensity Reduction:
                                                Achieved 15% reduction, meeting 2025 decarbonization targets.
Dividend Increase:
                                                Dividend raised 8.3% to EUR 0.975/share, total shareholder distributions EUR 1.8B (cash: EUR 1.1B, buybacks: EUR 700M).
2026 Guidance:
                                                Production target: 560,000-570,000 barrels/day; CapEx EUR 2.7B; cash flow guidance EUR 5.5-6B.
Venezuela Growth Potential:
                                                Aims to boost oil production by 50% in 12 months, with tripling potential in 3 years post-restart.

                                

Segment-wise Performance

The Upstream segment reported an adjusted net income of EUR 957 million, down 7% year-over-year, with production averaging 548,000 barrels equivalent per day. The Industrial division's adjusted net income was EUR 963 million, down EUR 484 million from 2024, while the Customer segment's adjusted net income was EUR 754 million, up 17% from 2024. The Low-Carbon Generation segment reported an adjusted net income of EUR 53 million, up EUR 77 million from 2024.

Guidance and Outlook

For 2026, Repsol expects to grow production to 560,000-570,000 barrels per day, with a cash dividend growing around 8% to EUR 1.051 per share and buybacks planned. The company expects EUR 5.5-6 billion in cash flow from operations, driven by new production, improved margins, and growth in the Customer business. Net CapEx is expected to be EUR 2.7 billion in 2026, with a focus on self-financing renewable assets.

Valuation Metrics

Repsol's current valuation metrics indicate a 'P/E Ratio' of 10.87, 'P/B Ratio' of 0.82, 'Dividend Yield (%)' of 4.95, and 'Free Cash Flow Yield (%)' of 6.98. These metrics suggest that the company's shares are reasonably priced, with a decent dividend yield and a positive free cash flow yield. The 'Net Debt / EBITDA' ratio stands at 1.87, indicating a manageable debt position.

Operational Highlights

Repsol is optimistic about its growth prospects in Venezuela, with plans to restart operations, including gas supply, lifting contractual condensates, and investing in production facility renewal. The company expects to increase oil gross production in Venezuela by more than 50% over the next 12 months. In Libya, Repsol has a positive view, with production averaging 300,000 barrels a day gross in 2025 and expected to reach 350,000 barrels a day by the end of 2026.

3. NewsRoom

Venture Global Earnings Guidance Falls Short. Why the LNG Supplier’s Stock Jumped 17%.

Mar -02

Source:

Venture Global, Inc. Q4 2025 Earnings Call Summary

Mar -02

Source:

Venture Global Earnings Guidance Falls Short. Why the LNG Supplier’s Stock Is Jumping 20%.

Mar -02

Source:

Repsol Raises Dividend As Production Guidance Shifts After Portfolio Moves

Mar -01

Source:

Repsol (BME:REP) Valuation Check After Strong Recent Share Price Momentum

Mar -01

Source:

JPMorgan Downgrades Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH), Cuts Price Target to $20

Feb -22

Source:

Global energy giant joins Chevron in major Venezuela oil push

Feb -22

Source:

Repsol Plans to Triple Venezuela Output After Securing U.S. Approval

Feb -19

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.07%)

6. Segments

Industrial

Expected Growth: 1.2%

Repsol's Industrial segment growth of 1.2% is driven by increasing demand for petrochemicals, particularly in the automotive and construction sectors. Additionally, the company's focus on high-margin specialty chemicals and its strategic partnerships have contributed to the growth. Furthermore, Repsol's efforts to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs have also supported the segment's expansion.

Customer

Expected Growth: 0.8%

Repsol's customer growth is driven by increasing demand for energy in Spain and Latin America, coupled with the company's strategic expansion into renewable energy sources. Additionally, Repsol's focus on operational efficiency and cost reduction has enabled it to maintain a competitive edge, attracting and retaining customers in a challenging market.

Corporate

Expected Growth: 1.1%

Repsol's 1.1% growth is driven by its strategic focus on upstream operations, increasing production in Latin America and Asia, and a strong refining margin in Spain. Additionally, the company's efforts to reduce debt and operating costs, as well as its growing presence in the renewable energy sector, contribute to its steady growth.

Upstream

Expected Growth: 1.3%

Repsol's upstream segment growth of 1.3% is driven by increased production in Latin America, particularly in Brazil and Colombia, as well as improved operational efficiency and cost savings. Additionally, the company's focus on exploration and development of new projects, such as the Aoka Mizu and Revival fields, contributes to the growth.

LCG

Expected Growth: 0.9%

LCG from Repsol, S.A. with 0.9 growth driven by increasing demand for low-carbon energy solutions, strategic partnerships, and investments in renewable energy projects, such as wind and solar power, as well as energy storage and grid integration.

7. Detailed Products

Petroleum Products

Repsol's petroleum products include a wide range of fuels, lubricants, and other petroleum-based products for various industries and consumers.

Natural Gas

Repsol is a major producer and supplier of natural gas, providing energy solutions for power generation, industrial processes, and residential use.

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)

Repsol's LPG is a versatile energy source used for cooking, heating, and powering vehicles.

Chemicals

Repsol's chemicals business produces a range of petrochemicals, including polyethylene, polypropylene, and other specialty chemicals.

Renewable Energy

Repsol is investing in renewable energy sources, including wind and solar power, to reduce carbon emissions and promote sustainable energy solutions.

Lubricants

Repsol's lubricants business produces a range of lubricating oils and greases for automotive, industrial, and marine applications.

8. Repsol, S.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Repsol, S.A. is medium due to the availability of alternative energy sources such as solar and wind power. However, the high demand for oil and gas products reduces the likelihood of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Repsol, S.A. is low due to the lack of negotiating power of individual customers. The company's large customer base and diversified product offerings also reduce the bargaining power of customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Repsol, S.A. is medium due to the presence of a few large suppliers of oil and gas equipment and services. However, the company's large scale of operations and diversified supply chain reduce the bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Repsol, S.A. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the oil and gas industry, including high capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Repsol, S.A. is high due to the presence of several large and established players in the oil and gas industry, leading to intense competition for market share and resources.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	30.50%
Debt Cost	4.29%
Equity Weight	69.50%
Equity Cost	8.60%
WACC	7.28%
Leverage	43.89%

11. Quality Control: Repsol, S.A. passed 6 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Deb

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Inefficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Repsol

A-Score: 7.1/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 2.6

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

PKN ORLEN

A-Score: 7.1/10

Value: 8.9

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Eni

A-Score: 7.0/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

TotalEnergies

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 2.7

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Shell

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

3.23%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

7.28%

Repsol, S.A. - ES0173516115

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on REP

1.c. Company Highlights

Less Volatile

Fairly Valued

Average Yield

Earnings Miss

Revenues Miss

Earnings Beats

Average Growth

Higher Yield

Stable Momentum

Revenues Beats

Cheaper

Weak Momentum

Average Quality

Lower Quality

2. Repsol's 2025 Earnings: A Year of Strategic Progress

Segment-wise Performance

Guidance and Outlook

Valuation Metrics

Operational Highlights

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.07%)

6. Segments

Industrial

Expected Growth: 1.2%

Customer

Expected Growth: 0.8%

Corporate

Expected Growth: 1.1%

Upstream

Expected Growth: 1.3%

LCG

Expected Growth: 0.9%

7. Detailed Products

Petroleum Products

Natural Gas

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)

Chemicals

Renewable Energy

Lubricants

8. Repsol, S.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Repsol, S.A. passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

20.7$

Current Price

20.7$

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA