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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

MedinCell S.A. develops various therapeutic solutions.It develops solutions based on BEPO, a technology for long-acting injectable products based on proprietary copolymers and a biocompatible solvent, which solubilizes or suspends the active pharmaceutical ingredients.The company's products in development include mdc-IRM, a subcutaneous injection in Phase III trials for use in the treatment of schizophrenia; mdc-CWM, an intra-articular injection to treat pain and inflammation; and mdc-TJK, a subcutaneous injection in preclinical trials for use in the treatment of schizophrenia.


Its product candidates in formulation research comprise subcutaneous injections, such as mdc-WWM for contraception; mdc-ANG for CNS related treatments; mdc-ELK for depression; and mdc-GRT for use in organ transplant, as well as perineural injections, including mdc-CMV for anesthesia and pain, and mdc-NVA for pain.The company is based in Jacou, France.

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1.b. Last Insights on MEDCL

Medincell's recent performance was negatively impacted by the significant increase in net sales of UZEDY, which rose 63% year-over-year to $191M in 2025. This rapid growth may have put pressure on the company's operations and supply chain, potentially leading to inefficiencies and increased costs. Additionally, the company's partner Teva Pharmaceuticals' Q4 and full-year 2025 results highlighted the challenges of managing large-scale pharmaceutical operations, which may have contributed to Medincell's negative performance.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Disappointing EPS but Revenue Beats Expectations

The company's revenue increased by 50% driven by UZEDY royalties, R&D partnerships, and research tax credits. However, the actual EPS came out at '-0.49155' relative to estimates at '-0.26082', a significant miss. The net loss would have been drastically reduced to 9 million if not for the non-cash adjustment to the fair value of the warrants. The cash position at the end of September was EUR 53 million, sufficient to respect all bank covenants and provide visibility for the next 2 years.

Publication Date: Dec -20

📋 Highlights
  • Olanzapine LAI FDA Filing:: Teva filed NDA for Olanzapine LAI, with FDA 10-month review clock starting; potential approval by Q4 2026, offering mid- to high-single-digit royalties and $4M–$105M in milestones.
  • UZEDY Revenue Growth:: UZEDY (Risperidone LAI) projected $190M–$200M in 2025, with peak sales of UZEDY+Olanzapine combined reaching $1.5B–$2B, driven by subcutaneous formulation and relapse-rate advantages.
  • Financial Performance:: 50% revenue growth in H1 2024 from UZEDY royalties and R&D partnerships; operating expenses rose 22%, with $9M net loss reduced to $9M pre-noncash adjustments.
  • Market Expansion:: Long-acting injectable (LAI) market expected to grow from $15B to $50B in 10 years; Olanzapine LAI addresses $2.5B+ oral antipsychotic market with PDSS-free profile (4,000+ injections tested).
  • Profitability Timeline:: Return to profitability targeted in 2026–2027 despite U.S. dollar headwinds; EUR53M cash reserves (vs. EUR63M in H1 2024) deemed sufficient for 2 years, supported by future royalties and milestones.

Growth Engines and Pipeline

The company has two main growth engines: UZEDY, a Risperidone LAI, and Olanzapine LAI. UZEDY is bringing in revenue and proving Teva's ability to get a product to market, with Teva confirming their guidance of $190 million to $200 million for 2025. Olanzapine LAI has filed the NDA at the FDA, and the company is eligible to mid- to high single-digit royalties, plus $4 million and $105 million in commercial milestones. As Richard Malamut mentioned, "UZEDY is doing well due to its subcutaneous formulation, smaller needle, and prefilled syringes."

Valuation and Outlook

The company's valuation metrics show a P/S Ratio of 32.64, indicating high expectations for future growth. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 85.9%. The company's pipeline includes multiple collaborations and deals, with a focus on building a string of pearls, blockbuster potential drugs. The approved products pipeline includes Olanzapine in '26, CWM and WWM, AbbVie #1, and other formulations.

Cash Flow and Expenses

The company's cash flows from the joint venture with Corbion in H1 are less than 100,000, but will increase as the business model matures. Operating expenses increased by 22%, with 2/3 of the expenses related to R&D activities. The company plans to return to profitability in fiscal year '26 or '27.

Key Ratios

The ROE is 64.48%, while the ROIC is -16.11%, indicating that the company is not generating returns on its investments. The Net Debt / EBITDA is 0.03, showing a healthy debt position. The EV/EBITDA is -74.41, indicating that the company's valuation is not justified by its current earnings.

3. NewsRoom

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Medincell to Present at the TD Cowen 46th Annual Healthcare Conference in Boston, March 2-4, 2026

Feb -24

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Medincell: U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Accepts Teva’s New Drug Application (NDA) for Olanzapine Extended-Release Injectable Suspension (TEV-'749) for the Once-Monthly Treatment of Schizophrenia in Adults

Feb -20

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U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Accepts Teva’s New Drug Application (NDA) for Olanzapine Extended-Release Injectable Suspension (TEV-'749) for the Once-Monthly Treatment of Schizophrenia in Adults

Feb -20

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Medincell’s ISS ESG Corporate Rating Upgraded

Feb -10

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Medincell - UZEDY®: Net Sales Increased from $117M in 2024 to $191M in 2025 (+63%)

Jan -28

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3 European Growth Companies With Up To 21% Insider Ownership

Jan -28

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Medincell: Half-year Liquidity Contract Statement

Jan -20

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Medincell: Publication of the 2026 Financial Calendar

Jan -12

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (9.25%)

6. Segments

Products Received under Development Benefit

Expected Growth: 9.27%

MedinCell S.A.'s 9.27% growth in Products Received under Development Benefit is driven by increasing demand for innovative pharmaceutical products, strategic partnerships, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, advancements in drug delivery technologies and a strong pipeline of products in development contribute to this growth.

Licenses, Milestones

Expected Growth: 9.33%

MedinCell S.A.'s 9.33% growth is driven by increasing demand for its innovative, long-acting injectable therapies, successful partnerships and collaborations, and strategic licensing agreements. Milestones achieved in clinical trials, regulatory approvals, and product launches also contribute to its growth. The company's strong pipeline and expanding portfolio of licensed products further support its upward trajectory.

Royalties

Expected Growth: 8.9%

Strong demand for MedinCell's innovative drug delivery technologies, increasing partnerships with pharmaceutical companies, and successful product launches in new markets drive the 8.9% growth in royalties. Additionally, the expansion of MedinCell's intellectual property portfolio and rising sales of licensed products contribute to the growth.

7. Detailed Products

BEPO

A long-acting injectable formulation of risperidone for the treatment of schizophrenia

mdc-IRM

A long-acting injectable formulation of ivermectin for the prevention of river blindness

mdc-TTG

A long-acting injectable formulation of testosterone for the treatment of hypogonadism

mdc-COVID-19

A long-acting injectable formulation of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19

8. MedinCell S.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

MedinCell S.A. operates in the pharmaceutical industry, where substitutes are available, but the company's innovative products and services reduce the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

MedinCell S.A. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's products and services are specialized, making it difficult for customers to switch to alternative suppliers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

MedinCell S.A. relies on a few key suppliers for raw materials and services. While the company has some bargaining power due to its size and reputation, suppliers still have some negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The pharmaceutical industry has high barriers to entry, including significant regulatory hurdles and high research and development costs. This reduces the threat of new entrants for MedinCell S.A.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The pharmaceutical industry is highly competitive, with many established players and new entrants vying for market share. MedinCell S.A. faces intense competition from other companies with similar products and services.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 428.65%
Debt Cost 7.62%
Equity Weight -328.65%
Equity Cost 9.15%
WACC 2.58%
Leverage -130.43%

11. Quality Control: MedinCell S.A. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Nanobiotix

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 8.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 0.0

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Biotest

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 7.4

Quality: 2.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 6.7

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MedinCell

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 7.0

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 1.3

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Value: 7.3

Growth: 9.0

Quality: 8.1

Yield: 0.0

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Galapagos

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 4.7

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Kuros Biosciences

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 6.9

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 1.0

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

22.38$

Current Price

22.38$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows