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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Alstom SA offers solutions for rail transport industry in Europe, the Americas, Asia and Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa.The company offers rolling stock solutions for people movers and monorails, light rails, metros, commuter trains, regional and intercity trains, high-speed trains, and locomotives; asset optimization, connectivity, digital passenger, and security and city mobility solutions; and signaling products, such as urban, mainline, and freight and mining signaling.It also provides tram, metro, and main line systems; and tracklaying and track solutions, catenary free and ground feeding solutions, electrification solutions, and electromechanical equipment.


In addition, the company provides maintenance, modernization, parts and repair, and support services.Further, it offers various components, including bogies, motors and generators, switchgears, auxiliary converters, traction transformers, brake friction, components propulsion, train control and information systems, and dispen dampers.The company was incorporated in 1992 and is based in Saint-Ouen, France.

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1.b. Last Insights on ALO

Alstom's recent performance was negatively impacted by its withdrawal of free cash flow guidance and profit warning, citing execution challenges, margin pressure, and operational issues. The company's large projects progressed slower than anticipated, affecting near-term margins and cash. An investigation by Johnson Fistel into potential claims on behalf of investors also weighed on the stock. Despite a €100B+ backlog and record orders, earnings visibility remains a concern. The company's Q4 2026 earnings call transcript and recent contracts, including a €295 million signalling contract in Europe, did little to alleviate these concerns.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Alstom's H1 Results: Strong Order Intake and Revenue Growth

Alstom reported a solid financial performance in the first half, with sales reaching EUR 9.1 billion, reflecting 7.9% organic growth across all product lines and regions. The adjusted EBIT margin improved to 6.4% from 5.9% in the same period last year, driven by a strong performance in the Signaling and Service segments. The company's EPS came in at EUR 0.2418, beating estimates of -EUR 0.13542. As Henri Poupart-Lafarge mentioned, "The solid performance underscores the strength and resilience of our business model."

Publication Date: Nov -14

📋 Highlights
  • Order Intake Strength:: EUR 10.5 billion in orders (H1 2023), reflecting a 1.2 book-to-bill ratio and EUR 96.1 billion backlog.
  • Organic Sales Growth:: EUR 9.1 billion sales with 7.9% growth, driven by all product lines and regions, including 17% growth in Signaling.
  • Adjusted EBIT Margin Expansion:: EUR 580 million adjusted EBIT (up 13% YoY), achieving a 6.4% margin (vs. 5.9% in H1 2022).
  • Regional Order Wins:: EUR 3 billion in Americas orders (EUR 2 billion and EUR 1 billion landmark contracts) and EUR 6.4 billion in Asia Pacific.
  • Free Cash Flow Seasonality:: Negative EUR 740 million H1 free cash flow, in line with expectations, with EUR 200-400 million guidance reaffirmed for the year.

Order Intake and Backlog

The company recorded EUR 10.5 billion in orders in the first half, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.2, resulting in a backlog of EUR 96.1 billion. The strong order intake was driven by landmark orders in the Americas region, including two significant deals worth EUR 2 billion and EUR 1 billion, respectively.

Cash Flow and Funding

Free cash flow was negative EUR 740 million, as expected, due to typical seasonality. The company's cash balance stood at EUR 1.7 billion at the end of September, with a net cash position, excluding long-term debt, of EUR 1.3 billion. Alstom expects a strong inflow of prepayments and growth in contract assets in the second half.

Guidance and Outlook

Alstom has revised its organic sales growth guidance to exceed 5%, up from 3-5% previously, and maintains its adjusted EBIT margin guidance around 7%. The company expects free cash flow generation within the EUR 200-400 million range and confirms its 3-year free cash flow objective of EUR 1.5 billion.

Valuation

Alstom's current valuation metrics indicate a P/E Ratio of 69.04, P/B Ratio of 0.98, and EV/EBITDA of 9.66. The market seems to be pricing in a relatively high valuation, considering the company's current earnings growth prospects. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 2.5%, which may not be sufficient to justify the current valuation.

3. NewsRoom

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INVESTOR ALERT: Pomerantz Law Firm Investigates Claims On Behalf of Investors of Alstom S.A. - ALSMY; AOMFF

Apr -28

Source: globenewswire.com

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Alstom S.A. Shareholders Are Encouraged to Reach Out to Johnson Fistel for More Information About Potentially Recovering Their Losses

Apr -20

Source: globenewswire.com

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Alstom Stock: Still A Buy After Analyzing The Recent Weakness

Apr -17

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Alstom SA (ALSMY) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Apr -17

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Alstom Shares Plunge on Profit Warning

Apr -17

Source: wsj.com

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ALSTOM S.A: Alstom signs a new Signalling contract in Europe

Apr -08

Source: globenewswire.com

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Alstom taps Martin Sion as CEO as Poupart-Lafarge won't seek new term

Apr -01

Source: reuters.com

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ALSTOM S.A: Alstom signs a new systems contract in the AMECA region

Mar -31

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.65%)

6. Segments

Rolling Stock

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Alstom SA's Rolling Stock segment growth of 4.5% is driven by increasing demand for sustainable transportation, urbanization, and government investments in rail infrastructure. Additionally, the company's focus on digitalization, innovation, and cost-cutting measures have improved operational efficiency, contributing to the segment's growth.

Services

Expected Growth: 4.8%

Alstom SA's 4.8% growth in services is driven by increasing demand for rail transport, urbanization, and government investments in infrastructure development. Additionally, the company's focus on digitalization, signaling, and maintenance services, as well as its strategic acquisitions, contribute to its growth momentum.

Signalling

Expected Growth: 5.2%

Alstom SA's 5.2% growth is driven by increasing demand for sustainable transportation, urbanization, and government investments in infrastructure development. The company's strategic acquisitions, innovative product offerings, and expanding presence in emerging markets also contribute to its growth momentum.

Systems

Expected Growth: 4.2%

Alstom SA's 4.2% growth is driven by increasing demand for sustainable transportation, urbanization, and government investments in rail infrastructure. The company's focus on digitalization, signaling, and electrification solutions also contributes to its growth. Additionally, Alstom's strategic acquisitions and partnerships have expanded its global footprint, further boosting revenue.

7. Detailed Products

Trains

Alstom SA designs, manufactures, and delivers a wide range of trains, including high-speed trains, commuter trains, and metro trains.

Signaling Systems

Alstom SA provides advanced signaling systems, including European Train Control System (ETCS) and Communication-Based Train Control (CBTC), to ensure safe and efficient rail operations.

Railway Electrification

Alstom SA offers a range of electrification solutions, including overhead lines, third rail, and catenary systems, to power rail networks efficiently and sustainably.

Digital Mobility Solutions

Alstom SA provides digital solutions, including data analytics, IoT, and cybersecurity, to optimize rail operations, improve passenger experience, and enhance safety.

Services

Alstom SA offers a range of services, including maintenance, repair, and overhaul, to support the entire lifecycle of rail assets.

Systems and Infrastructure

Alstom SA designs, builds, and integrates rail infrastructure, including stations, depots, and maintenance facilities, to support efficient rail operations.

8. Alstom SA's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Alstom SA operates in the rail transport industry, which has a moderate threat of substitutes. While there are alternative modes of transportation, such as buses and cars, they are not always a viable substitute for rail transport, especially for long-distance travel.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Alstom SA's customers, primarily governments and transportation authorities, have limited bargaining power due to the specialized nature of the rail transport industry and the company's strong market position.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Alstom SA's suppliers, including component manufacturers and raw material providers, have a moderate level of bargaining power due to the company's dependence on them for critical components and materials.

Threat Of New Entrants

The rail transport industry has significant barriers to entry, including high capital requirements and regulatory hurdles, making it difficult for new entrants to challenge Alstom SA's market position.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The rail transport industry is highly competitive, with several established players, including Siemens, Bombardier, and CRRC, competing for market share and contracts, which increases the intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 32.55%
Debt Cost 4.43%
Equity Weight 67.45%
Equity Cost 9.57%
WACC 7.90%
Leverage 48.25%

11. Quality Control: Alstom SA passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Getlink

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 2.0

Growth: 7.1

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 3.8

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
ALD

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 7.1

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 1.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Aeroports de Paris

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 3.2

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 2.9

Yield: 2.5

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
KION

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 1.9

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Stadler Rail

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 5.1

Growth: 2.8

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 2.5

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Alstom

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 4.6

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 3.0

Yield: 0.6

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

17.08$

Current Price

17.08$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows