Ferroglobe PLC (GSM) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Ferroglobe PLC operates in the silicon and specialty metals industry in the United States, Europe, and internationally.It provides silicone chemicals that are used in a range of applications, including personal care items, construction-related products, health care products, and electronics, as well as silicon metal for primary and secondary aluminum producers; silicomanganese, which is used as deoxidizing agent in the steel manufacturing process; and ferromanganese that is used as a deoxidizing, desulphurizing, and degassing agent in the removal of nitrogen and other harmful elements from steel.The company also offers ferrosilicon products that are used to produce stainless steel, carbon steel, and various other steel alloys, as well as to manufacture electrodes and aluminum; calcium silicon, which is used in the deoxidation and desulfurization of liquid steel, and production of coatings for cast iron pipes, as well as in the welding process of powder metal and in pyrotechnics; and nodularizers and inoculants, which are used in the production of iron.

In addition, it provides silica fume, a by-product of the electrometallurgical process of silicon metal and ferrosilicon.Further, the company operates quartz mines in Spain, South Africa, the United States, and Canada; and low-ash metallurgical coal mines in the United States, as well as holds interests in hydroelectric power plant in France.It serves silicone chemical, aluminum, and steel manufacturers; auto companies and their suppliers; ductile iron foundries; manufacturers of photovoltaic solar cells and computer chips; and concrete producers.

The company was formerly known as VeloNewco Limited and changed its name to Ferroglobe PLC in December 2015.The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.Ferroglobe PLC is a subsidiary of Grupo Villar Mir, S.A.U.

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1.b. Last Insights on GSM

Ferroglobe PLC's recent performance was driven by a favorable final decision in the U.S. ferrosilicon case, which is expected to have a positive impact on the company's future earnings. Additionally, the preliminary EU safeguard decision, expected by June, may also provide relief to the company. Furthermore, the company's increased quarterly cash dividend to $0.014 per share in March, up 8% over the prior quarter, demonstrates its commitment to returning value to shareholders. The repurchase of 720,008 shares during the first quarter also indicates the company's confidence in its future prospects.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	4.57
Change Percentage	-2.14%
Open	4.68
Previous Close	4.67
Market Cap ( Millions)	853
Volume	930318
Year High	5.74
Year Low	2.97
M A 50	4.98
M A 200	4.5

FCF Yield	-1.89%
Dividend Yield	1.23%
ROE	-22.22%
Debt / Equity	42.35%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	-149.45%
Price To Book	1.24
Price Earnings Ratio	-5.04
Price To FCF	-52.87
Price To sales	0.64
EV / EBITDA	-8.99

2. Ferroglobe's 2025 Earnings: A Resilient Performance Amidst Challenging Market Conditions

Ferroglobe's fourth-quarter revenues increased by 6% to $329 million, driven by strong silicon-based alloys and manganese-based alloys volumes. The company's adjusted EBITDA declined 20% from the prior quarter to $15 million, primarily due to lower prices and elevated costs. The actual EPS came out at -$0.06, beating estimates of -$0.07. For the full year 2025, revenues were impacted by muted demand, tariff uncertainty, and elevated levels of predatory imports. Despite these challenges, the company maintained a solid balance sheet and generated $51 million in cash from operations.

Publication Date: Mar -07

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Trade Measures Implemented::
                                                EU safeguards reduced ferroalloy imports by 25%, while US duties targeted Brazil, Kazakhstan, and Malaysia, boosting market confidence for 2026 growth.
Operational Flexibility::
                                                Conversion of 3 furnaces (1 in the US, 2 in Europe) from silicon to ferrosilicon enhanced production adaptability, aligning with market shifts.
Revenue and EBITDA Performance::
                                                Q4 sales rose 6% to $329M, but adjusted EBITDA fell to $15M (-20% QoQ) due to lower prices and higher costs in France.
2026 Growth Outlook::
                                                Revenue projected to reach $1.5B–$1.7B (+20% midpoint YoY) driven by EU steel safeguards and US antidumping actions, with manganese volumes up 16% to 81,000 tonnes.
Financial Resilience::
                                                Free cash flow negative $12M in 2025, but net debt reduced to $30M, and dividends increased to $0.15/share starting Q1 2026, reflecting strong balance sheet management.

                                

Segment Performance

The silicon-based alloys segment reported a 12% increase in revenue to $104 million, driven by a 19% sequential increase in volumes to 51,000 tons. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $60 million in the fourth quarter from $12 million in the third quarter, with margins expanding by 160 basis points to 15%. The manganese-based alloys segment also reported a strong performance, with revenue increasing by 10% to $93 million, driven by a 16% increase in volumes to 81,000 tons.

Outlook and Guidance

Ferroglobe expects a stronger year in 2026, driven by the cumulative impact of trade actions secured in Europe and the United States. The company anticipates revenues improving to a range of $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion, an increase of 20% at the midpoint over 2025. As Marco Levi, CEO, noted, "We believe Ferroglobe is exceptionally well positioned for 2026 and beyond, with improving market fundamentals, increased confidence driven by trade actions, and a more flexible and efficient operating platform."

Valuation and Metrics

Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 17.9%. With a current P/S Ratio of 0.65, the market appears to have tempered expectations. The EV/EBITDA ratio stands at -9.12, indicating that the company's enterprise value is not faring well compared to its EBITDA. The Dividend Yield is 1.2%, providing some return to shareholders. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is -1.49, indicating a relatively healthy debt position.

3. NewsRoom

Ferroglobe (NASDAQ:GSM) Stock Crosses Above 200 Day Moving Average – Should You Sell?

Mar -11

Source: defenseworld.net

Ferroglobe Sees Unusually Large Options Volume (NASDAQ:GSM)

Feb -20

Source: defenseworld.net

Ferroglobe (NASDAQ:GSM) Shares Gap Up Following Strong Earnings

Feb -19

Source: defenseworld.net

Why Ferroglobe Stock Was a Winner on Wednesday

Feb -18

Source: fool.com

Ferroglobe PLC (GSM) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -18

Source: seekingalpha.com

Globe Specialty Metals (GSM) Reports Q4 Loss, Tops Revenue Estimates

Feb -18

Source: zacks.com

Ferroglobe Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results

Feb -17

Source: globenewswire.com

Ferroglobe PLC Schedules Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Earnings Call for February 18, 2026

Feb -02

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.00%)

6. Segments

North America Silicon Metal

Expected Growth: 5%

Ferroglobe PLC's North America Silicon Metal segment growth is driven by increasing demand from the solar and automotive industries, coupled with the region's growing focus on renewable energy and electrification. Additionally, the company's strategic expansion into the US market and investments in production capacity have contributed to the 5% growth rate.

Europe Silicon Metal

Expected Growth: 5%

Ferroglobe PLC's Europe Silicon Metal segment growth is driven by increasing demand from the solar and aluminum industries, coupled with the company's cost leadership and operational efficiency. Additionally, the segment benefits from favorable market trends, such as the shift towards renewable energy and the growth of the electric vehicle market.

North America Silicon Alloys

Expected Growth: 5%

Ferroglobe PLC's North America Silicon Alloys segment growth is driven by increasing demand from the solar and automotive industries, coupled with the region's growing focus on renewable energy and electric vehicle adoption. Additionally, the segment benefits from Ferroglobe's cost leadership, operational efficiencies, and strategic partnerships with key customers.

Europe Manganese

Expected Growth: 5%

Europe Manganese from Ferroglobe PLC's 5% growth is driven by increasing demand for electric vehicle batteries, growth in steel production, and rising adoption of renewable energy technologies. Additionally, the European Union's goal to become carbon neutral by 2050 and the increasing focus on sustainable energy storage solutions also contribute to the segment's growth.

Europe Silicon Alloys

Expected Growth: 5%

Ferroglobe PLC's Europe Silicon Alloys segment growth is driven by increasing demand from the solar and aluminum industries, supported by government incentives for renewable energy. Additionally, the segment benefits from its cost-competitive production process and strategic location, enabling it to capitalize on growing European demand.

Adjustments/Eliminations

Expected Growth: 5%

Ferroglobe PLC's 5% growth driven by increasing demand for silicon metal and ferroalloys from the solar and automotive industries, coupled with strategic cost savings initiatives and operational efficiencies. Additionally, the company's diversification into new markets and products, such as silicon-based alloys, contributes to its growth momentum.

South Africa Silicon Alloys

Expected Growth: 5%

Ferroglobe PLC's South Africa Silicon Alloys segment growth is driven by increasing demand from the solar and aluminum industries, coupled with the country's favorable energy costs and government support for the sector. Additionally, the company's cost-cutting initiatives and operational efficiencies contribute to its growth.

Other Segments

Expected Growth: 5%

Ferroglobe's Other Segments, with 5% growth, are driven by increasing demand for silicon metal and alloys in the automotive and renewable energy industries, coupled with strategic acquisitions and expansion into high-growth markets, as well as cost savings initiatives and operational efficiencies.

South Africa Silicon Metal

Expected Growth: 5%

Ferroglobe PLC's South Africa Silicon Metal segment growth is driven by increasing demand from the solar and aluminum industries, coupled with the country's favorable energy costs and government support for the metal industry. Additionally, the company's cost-cutting initiatives and operational efficiencies contribute to its growth.

7. Detailed Products

Silicon Metals

Ferroglobe PLC produces high-purity silicon metals used in the production of aluminum, semiconductors, and solar panels.

Silicon-Based Alloys

Ferroglobe PLC offers a range of silicon-based alloys used in the production of steel, aluminum, and other metals.

Manganese-Based Alloys

Ferroglobe PLC produces manganese-based alloys used in the production of steel, stainless steel, and other specialty alloys.

Other Specialty Metals

Ferroglobe PLC offers a range of other specialty metals, including ferrovanadium, ferromolybdenum, and ferrotungsten.

8. Ferroglobe PLC's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Ferroglobe PLC is moderate due to the availability of alternative products and services in the silicon metal and manganese-based alloy markets.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is high due to the concentration of major customers in the automotive and steel industries, which gives them significant negotiating power over prices and terms.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is low due to the availability of multiple suppliers of raw materials and the company's ability to negotiate favorable terms.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the competitive nature of the silicon metal and manganese-based alloy markets, with multiple players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	27.72%
Debt Cost	13.88%
Equity Weight	72.28%
Equity Cost	13.88%
WACC	13.88%
Leverage	38.35%

11. Quality Control: Ferroglobe PLC passed 5 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Alphamin Resources

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 5.6

Growth: 9.0

Quality: 8.1

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Capital

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Ecora Resources

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 5.6

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 3.8

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Griffin Mining

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 2.6

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 7.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

AMG

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 2.8

Yield: 2.5

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Ferroglobe

A-Score: 2.9/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 3.1

Yield: 0.6

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

54.09%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

13.88%

Ferroglobe PLC - GB00BYW6GV68

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on GSM

1.c. Company Highlights

Lower Yield

More Volatile

Average Growth

Earnings Beats

Revenues Beats

Earnings Miss

Fairly Valued

Cheaper

Revenues Miss

Weak Momentum

Stable Momentum

Lower Quality

2. Ferroglobe's 2025 Earnings: A Resilient Performance Amidst Challenging Market Conditions

Segment Performance

Outlook and Guidance

Valuation and Metrics

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.00%)

6. Segments

North America Silicon Metal

Expected Growth: 5%

Europe Silicon Metal

Expected Growth: 5%

North America Silicon Alloys

Expected Growth: 5%

Europe Manganese

Expected Growth: 5%

Europe Silicon Alloys

Expected Growth: 5%

Adjustments/Eliminations

Expected Growth: 5%

South Africa Silicon Alloys

Expected Growth: 5%

Other Segments

Expected Growth: 5%

South Africa Silicon Metal

Expected Growth: 5%

7. Detailed Products

Silicon Metals

Silicon-Based Alloys

Manganese-Based Alloys

Other Specialty Metals

8. Ferroglobe PLC's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Ferroglobe PLC passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA