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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Glencore plc produces, refines, processes, stores, transports, and markets metals and minerals, and energy products in the Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania.It operates through two segments, Marketing Activities and Industrial Activities.The company produces and markets copper, cobalt, nickel, zinc, lead, chrome ore, ferrochrome, vanadium, alumina, aluminum, tin, and iron ore.


It also engages in the oil exploration/production, distribution, storage, and bunkering activities; and offers coal, crude oil and oil products, refined products, and natural gas.In addition, the company markets and distributes physical commodities sourced from third party producers and its production to industrial consumers in the battery, electronic, construction, automotive, steel, energy, and oil industries.Further, it provides financing, logistics, and other services to producers and consumers of commodities.


The company was formerly known as Glencore Xstrata plc and changed its name to Glencore plc in May 2014.Glencore plc was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Baar, Switzerland.

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1.b. Last Insights on GLEN

Glencore's recent performance was driven by strategic investments and partnerships. The company invested $3 million in Chilean Cobalt Corp, expanding its presence in the cobalt market. Additionally, Glencore was involved in a potential merger with Rio Tinto, which ended due to disagreements on terms. The company also participated in the $707 million IPO of China's Chuangxin, a secret aluminum giant. Glencore's focus on energy transition materials and developments in key mining assets has been a key driver. Its investments reflect a calculated bet on the energy transition.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Glencore's Strong 2025 Financial Performance Driven by Metals

Glencore's 2025 financial results showed a strong performance, with $13.5 billion in adjusted EBITDA, driven primarily by its industrial segment, which contributed close to $10 billion, particularly from metals such as copper and zinc. The company's actual EPS came out at $0.1219, beating estimates of $0.1189. The marketing side also had a strong year, with $2.9 billion in adjusted marketing EBIT, driven by metal trading opportunities. Key financial highlights include a 50% increase in EBITDA from H1 to H2, with industrial EBITDA up 65%. The company's balance sheet remains strong, with net debt stable at $8.7 billion.

Publication Date: Feb -19

📋 Highlights
  • Adjusted EBITDA Growth:: Glencore reported $13.5 billion adjusted EBITDA in 2025, driven by $10 billion from metals (copper, zinc) and $2.9 billion from marketing operations.
  • Dividend Distribution:: The company announced a $2 billion shareholder dividend, reflecting strong cash generation and commitment to return capital.
  • Copper EBITDA Surge:: Copper business EBITDA reached $3.9 billion, with unit cash costs at $1.83, targeting a $1.08–$1.18 reduction by 2028–2029 through production scaling.
  • Shareholder Returns:: $27 billion returned to shareholders since 2021, including $3.5 billion in 2025 via buybacks and dividends, with net debt reduced to $8.7 billion.
  • CapEx and Free Cash Flow:: $6.9 billion invested in CapEx in 2025, with $7 billion in illustrative free cash flow projected, targeting $10 billion net debt reduction and infrastructure monetization.

Financial Highlights and Margin Analysis

The company's financial performance was impacted by various factors, including a $2.4 billion negative year-on-year variance in coal, which was offset by a $1.9 billion positive variance in metals, driven by a 9% increase in average copper prices. Copper contributed $1 billion to the positive variance, and the company's cost variance was neutral, despite inflationary pressures, due to a $1 billion cost reduction program. Glencore's copper business EBITDA increased to $3.9 billion, with a unit cash cost of $1.83.

Operational Performance and Guidance

The company's operational scorecard showed solid performance, with 2 years of achieving guidance across key commodities. Glencore made progress on its portfolio optimization, including the acquisition of Quechua in Peru and advancements in Argentina. The company expects continued momentum, although it did not provide guidance for 2026. The industrial side had a strong performance, particularly in the metal business, with zinc prices and gold contributing significantly.

Valuation and Future Prospects

With a P/E Ratio of 223.91 and an EV/EBITDA of 12.41, the market appears to be pricing in significant growth expectations. The company's spot illustrative EBITDA is now at $14.6 billion, with the energy business lagging in terms of recovery but showing potential. As Glencore continues to optimize its portfolio and invest in growth projects, its strong balance sheet and cash generation capabilities position it well for future returns. The company's investment case includes an exceptional copper portfolio, targeting 1.6 million tonnes of copper production, and a high-quality steam coal business.

Strategic Priorities and Industry Outlook

Glencore prioritizes infrastructure plays over traditional streaming in mining, and the company's marketing business provides significant synergies across its operations. As the company navigates industry challenges, including potential capital inflation risks due to capacity constraints in building copper projects, Glencore aims to mitigate these risks through partnerships and careful project execution. The company's CEO, Gary Nagle, notes that while operational synergies are crucial, they are not the only source of value creation.

3. NewsRoom

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Will Iran be a net positive for metals and mining giants Freeport and Glencore?

Mar -02

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

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THE Mining Investment Event Announces 2026 Issuers and Welcomes New and Returning Partners

Feb -19

Source: feeds.newsfilecorp.com

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Rio Tinto, Glencore end merger talks over price dispute

Feb -05

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

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FTSE 100 Live: London stocks recover as markets cheer Fed chair nomination

Jan -30

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

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FTSE 100 Live: London stocks recover as markets await Fed chair nomination

Jan -30

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

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FTSE 100 Live: Stocks recover but miners come under pressure as metals retreat

Jan -30

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

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Rio Tinto’s $260 billion copper pivot: A calculated bet on the energy transition

Jan -23

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

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Arrow Exploration grows output with Mateguafa discovery – ICYMI

Dec -26

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.18%)

6. Segments

Marketing Activities

Expected Growth: 5.2%

Glencore plc's marketing activities focus on diversifying its commodity portfolio, increasing production volumes, and expanding into new markets, driving growth in the industry.

Industrial Activities

Expected Growth: 4.8%

Glencore's growth is driven by its copper output, increasing demand for electric vehicles, and growing supply of nickel and cobalt for battery production, supported by its mining and metallurgy activities.

Inter-Segment Eliminations

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Glencore plc's Inter-Segment Eliminations' growth is driven by increasing demand, urbanization, and infrastructure development, leading to rising commodity prices and trading volumes.

7. Detailed Products

Copper

Glencore plc is one of the world's largest producers of copper, a highly conductive metal used in electrical wiring, electronics, and construction.

Cobalt

Glencore plc is a significant producer of cobalt, a key component in lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles and portable electronics.

Nickel

Glencore plc produces nickel, a corrosion-resistant metal used in stainless steel production, alloys, and electroplating.

Zinc

Glencore plc is a major producer of zinc, a versatile metal used in galvanizing, die-casting, and as an alloying element.

Ferrosilicon

Glencore plc produces ferrosilicon, an alloy used in the production of steel and as a deoxidizer in steel manufacturing.

Iron Ore

Glencore plc produces iron ore, a key ingredient in steel production.

Coal

Glencore plc is a significant producer of thermal and metallurgical coal, used in power generation and steel production.

Agricultural Products

Glencore plc markets and distributes a range of agricultural products, including grains, oilseeds, and sugar.

8. Glencore plc's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Glencore plc operates in the mining industry, where substitutes are limited. However, the company's focus on copper, cobalt, zinc, nickel, and ferroalloys makes it vulnerable to substitutes in specific markets.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Glencore plc's customers are largely industrial companies and manufacturers, which have limited bargaining power due to their dependence on the company's products.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Glencore plc relies on a network of suppliers for equipment, services, and materials. While some suppliers may have bargaining power, the company's scale and diversification mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The mining industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements, regulatory hurdles, and environmental concerns, making it difficult for new entrants to challenge Glencore plc's position.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The mining industry is highly competitive, with several large players competing for market share. Glencore plc faces intense rivalry from companies like BHP, Rio Tinto, and Anglo American.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 42.52%
Debt Cost 10.42%
Equity Weight 57.48%
Equity Cost 10.42%
WACC 10.42%
Leverage 73.98%

11. Quality Control: Glencore plc passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
BHP

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 7.6

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Rio Tinto

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 4.9

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
HeidelbergCement

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Kenmare Resources

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 3.0

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Anglo American

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 1.8

Quality: 2.1

Yield: 3.8

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Glencore

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 2.8

Quality: 1.1

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

5.18$

Current Price

5.18$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows