Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Adecoagro S.A. operates as an agro-industrial company in South America.It engages in farming crops and other agricultural products, dairy operations, and land transformation activities, as well as sugar, ethanol, and energy production activities.The company is involved in the planting, harvesting, and sale of grains and oilseeds, as well as wheat, corn, soybeans, peanuts, cotton, sunflowers, and others; provision of grain warehousing/conditioning, handling, and drying services to third parties; and purchase and sale of crops produced by third parties.


It also plants, harvests, processes, and markets rice; and produces and sells raw milk, UHT, cheese, powder milk, and others.In addition, the company engages in the cultivating, processing, and transforming of sugarcane into ethanol and sugar; and the sale of electricity cogenerated at its sugar and ethanol mills to the grid.Further, it is involved in the identification and acquisition of underdeveloped and undermanaged farmland, and the realization of value through the strategic disposition of assets.


As of December 31, 2021, the company owned a total of 219,850 hectares of land, including 18 farms in Argentina, 8 farms in Brazil, and 1 farm in Uruguay, as well as a total of 241 megawatts of installed cogeneration capacity.Adecoagro S.A. was founded in 2002 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on AGRO

Adecoagro S.A.'s recent performance was driven by the strategic acquisition of Profertil, which positively impacted its pro forma results. The company's Q4 2025 earnings call highlighted this acquisition as a key factor. Additionally, several brokerages have given the stock a "hold" or "strong buy" rating, citing its growth potential. The company's expansion and improved financials have also led to its stock surpassing resistance at the 20-day moving average, indicating a short-term bullish trend. (Source: Marketbeat, PRNewswire)

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Adecoagro 2025 Earnings: Urea Upside Amid Cost‑Control Push

2025 delivered a mixed bag for Adecoagro: revenues slipped 2% to $1.12 billion, while adjusted EBITDA collapsed 38% to $92 million, driven by a 6% drop in fertilizer sales and 35% EBITDA loss in the segment. EPS fell to –$0.16 versus the –$0.08663 estimate, underscoring margin pressure. The company’s EV/EBITDA sits at 21.88, and a 2.75% dividend yield signals a steady payout amid a 4.25× net debt/EBITDA ratio.

Publication Date: Apr -21

📋 Highlights
  • Acquisition of Profertil: doubled Adecoagro's size, making it the largest urea producer in South America, with production costs of $180–$190/ton.
  • 2025 Financial Performance: showed 2% sales decline and 38% adjusted EBITDA drop, driven by Fertilizers segment’s 35% EBITDA decline due to downtime.
  • Financing and Leverage: increased after $300M equity raise, but plans to reduce net leverage via higher EBITDA and a $35M 2026 dividend.
  • Urea Market Outlook: remains bullish: geopolitical tensions and low global inventories could sustain high prices, boosting margins with fixed costs.
  • Expansion Projects: include potential urea plant duplication and ethanol production optimization, leveraging $20/lb ethanol prices in Mato Grosso do Sul.

Fertilizer Resilience and Urea Pricing

The Profertil acquisition has cemented Adecoagro as South America’s largest urea producer, leveraging Argentina’s natural gas reserves. Mariano Bosch highlighted that fixed input costs will let the firm capture upside as urea prices remain elevated, a trend bolstered by global supply shocks. With domestic sales priced at import parity, the company expects a full EBITDA recovery once operations normalize.

Debt Profile and Capital Allocation

The $300 million equity raise, led by Tetra, financed the acquisition and pushed net leverage to 4.25× EBITDA. Adecoagro plans to deleverage to a 2× target by boosting EBITDA and revising its capital allocation strategy. The Board approved a $35 million cash dividend for 2026, reinforcing its commitment to shareholder returns while maintaining a disciplined balance sheet.

Sugar, Ethanol and Energy Outlook

Above‑average rainfall hit cane yields, yet productivity rebounded, setting the stage for low double‑digit growth in crushing volumes for 2026. Ethanol production will benefit from low inventories and higher gasoline prices, with sales around 20¢/lb in Mato Grosso do Sul. The company is also exploring a new urea plant to expand capacity, though the capital intensity remains a consideration.

Market Dynamics and Future Growth

Global urea scarcity, coupled with Middle Eastern supply cuts, has kept inventories low, positioning Adecoagro to capitalize on prolonged price spikes. The firm’s low production cost of $180‑$190/ton places it among the region’s cheapest producers, enhancing competitiveness against imports. Management remains optimistic about Argentina’s improving business environment, foreseeing continued gains in the farming sector and potential export expansion.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

Adecoagro SA (AGRO) Stock Up 5.0% but GF Value Says Overvalued -- GF Score: 76/100

Apr -28

Source: gurufocus.com

Card image cap

A Look at Adecoagro SA (AGRO) After 3.7% Decline -- GF Value $8.96 vs Price $12.78

Apr -24

Source: gurufocus.com

Card image cap

5 Value Stocks to Own as Geopolitical Risks Keep Markets Uncertain

Apr -24

Source: zacks.com

Card image cap

Adecoagro announces declaration of cash dividends

Apr -23

Source: prnewswire.com

Card image cap

Are Consumer Staples Stocks Lagging Adecoagro (AGRO) This Year?

Apr -22

Source: zacks.com

Card image cap

Adecoagro (AGRO) Just Reclaimed the 20-Day Moving Average

Apr -13

Source: zacks.com

Card image cap

5 Value Stocks to Buy Amid Geopolitical and Fed Uncertainty

Apr -09

Source: zacks.com

Card image cap

AGRO vs. CTVA: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?

Apr -06

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (9.96%)

6. Segments

Sugar, Ethanol and Energy

Expected Growth: 10.5%

Adecoagro's diversified portfolio of sugar, ethanol, and energy products drives growth, fueled by increasing global demand for renewable energy and sustainable agricultural practices.

Farming

Expected Growth: 10.5%

Adecoagro's focus on sustainable and responsible practices, increasing demand for organic and eco-friendly products, and expansion into new markets drive growth. Additionally, the company's diversified portfolio of crops and livestock, as well as its strong presence in South America, contribute to its growth potential.

Reconciling Items

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Adecoagro S.A.'s reconciling items are driven by factors such as changes in accounting estimates, differences in valuation methods, and adjustments for non-recurring items. The company's growth is expected to be fueled by increasing agricultural commodity prices, expansion into new markets, and investments in technology and sustainability initiatives.

7. Detailed Products

Farm Products

Adecoagro S.A. produces and sells a variety of farm products, including soybeans, corn, wheat, and sugarcane, among others.

Rice

Adecoagro S.A. produces and sells rice, a staple food crop, to local and international markets.

Sugar and Ethanol

Adecoagro S.A. produces and sells sugar and ethanol, a biofuel, from sugarcane crops.

Cattle

Adecoagro S.A. raises and sells cattle for beef production, as well as provides cattle fattening services.

Urea Fertilizer

Adecoagro S.A. produces and sells urea fertilizer, a nitrogen-based fertilizer, for agricultural use.

Land Transformation Services

Adecoagro S.A. provides land transformation services, including land acquisition, development, and management.

8. Adecoagro S.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Adecoagro S.A. operates in the agricultural industry, where substitutes are limited. However, the company faces some threat from alternative crops and farming practices.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Adecoagro S.A. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's products are essential to its customers, making it difficult for them to negotiate prices.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Adecoagro S.A. relies on suppliers for inputs such as seeds, fertilizers, and equipment. While the company has some bargaining power due to its size, suppliers can still exert some pressure on prices and delivery terms.

Threat Of New Entrants

The agricultural industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles. This makes it difficult for new entrants to compete with established players like Adecoagro S.A.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The agricultural industry is highly competitive, with many players competing for market share. Adecoagro S.A. faces intense rivalry from other agricultural companies, which can lead to pricing pressure and reduced margins.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 43.80%
Debt Cost 7.57%
Equity Weight 56.20%
Equity Cost 9.52%
WACC 8.66%
Leverage 77.93%

11. Quality Control: Adecoagro S.A. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
M.P. Evans

A-Score: 7.6/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 8.0

Quality: 8.1

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Anglo-Eastern Plantations

A-Score: 7.0/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 7.5

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Sipef

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 3.8

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
ForFarmers

A-Score: 6.8/10

Value: 9.0

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Austevoll Seafood

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Adecoagro

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 1.9

Growth: 6.9

Quality: 1.9

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

14.42$

Current Price

14.42$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows