InPost S.A. (INPST.AS) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

InPost S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an out-of-home e-commerce enablement platform providing parcel locker services in Europe.It operates through four segments: APM (automated parcel machines), To-Door, Mondial Relay, and International Other.The APM segment focuses on the delivery of parcels to automated parcel machines.

The To-Door segment delivers parcels using door-to-door couriers.The Mondial Relay segment delivers parcels to automated parcel machines; and operates pick-up drop-off (PUDO) points in France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, and Portugal.The International Other segment delivers parcels to automated parcel machines in the United Kingdom and Italy.

The company also provides fulfilment services, including comprehensive warehousing, packaging, and logistics services to e-commerce merchants; operates self-service parcel dispatch and collection points; and e-Grocery, a delivery service for food and FMCG products through InPost Fresh app to dedicated machines and to the recipient.As of December 31, 2021, it handled 517 million parcel deliveries, and installed approximately 2.4 million lockers across its network of 16,445 APMs. The company also had approximately 38,000 integrated merchants and 8 million active mobile users on its mobile application.InPost S.A. was founded in 1999 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.

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1.b. Last Insights on INPST

InPost S.A.'s recent performance was negatively impacted by a 53% EPS miss, sparking concerns among shareholders. The company's profitability has been under pressure, with a sharp drop in net income despite higher sales. InPost's cautious outlook on Poland's growth, citing slower parcel volume growth, has also raised concerns. Additionally, the company's relationship with partner Allegro has been questioned, potentially affecting its business. Earnings release showed significant pressure on profitability.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	9.89
Change Percentage	1.38%
Open	9.78
Previous Close	9.76
Market Cap ( Millions)	4942
Volume	1070950
Year High	17.75
Year Low	9.19
M A 50	10.28
M A 200	12.74

FCF Yield	6.89%
Dividend Yield	0.00%
ROE	38.30%
Debt / Equity	323.27%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	236.07%
Price To Book	7.25
Price Earnings Ratio	21.25
Price To FCF	14.51
Price To sales	1.69
EV / EBITDA	8.23

2. Missing the Mark: A Deep Dive into the Earnings Report

The company's latest financial performance was marked by revenues that came in below expectations, with actual EPS at $0.1484, significantly lower than the estimated $0.828. The earnings report highlighted a challenging period for the business, with revenue growth not meeting analyst expectations. The company's financials showed a revenue growth rate that was not sufficient to meet the projected 19.0% growth estimated by analysts for the next year. The profit margins were also under pressure, affecting the bottom line. According to Rafal Brzoska, "the current market conditions have been particularly challenging," which reinforces the analysis that external factors played a role in the company's underperformance.

Publication Date: Sep -03

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Limited Data Provided:
                                                The input contains only a list of individuals and roles from an earnings call without any financial figures or key statements.
Repetitive Names:
                                                Executives like Rafal Brzoska and Francisco van Engelen Sousa are repeatedly mentioned, suggesting active participation in the discussion.
No Financial Metrics:
                                                No revenue, profit, or growth figures are included in the provided transcript excerpts.
Operator Dominance:
                                                The "Operator" is listed multiple times, indicating procedural or Q&A segments of the call.
Unclear Context:
                                                Unknown executives are referenced, highlighting incomplete or anonymized portions of the transcript.

                                

Valuation Metrics: Understanding What's Priced In

To understand the market's expectations, we look at the valuation metrics. The stock is currently trading at a P/E Ratio of 19.18, P/B Ratio of 8.28, and P/S Ratio of 1.97. The EV/EBITDA ratio stands at 8.06, indicating the enterprise value relative to EBITDA. The ROE is at 50.86%, and ROIC is 15.63%, suggesting a strong return on equity but a relatively lower return on invested capital. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 1.36, indicating a manageable debt level relative to EBITDA. The Free Cash Flow Yield is 6.7%, which is positive. These metrics suggest that the market has priced in a certain level of performance, and the current earnings report may lead to a reevaluation of these expectations.

Operational Insights and Future Outlook

The company's operational performance was under scrutiny during the earnings call. The discussions highlighted the challenges faced by the business, including market conditions and operational inefficiencies. The management's guidance for the future suggests a focus on improving operational efficiency and navigating the challenging market conditions. The analysts' questions probed into the company's strategy for achieving the estimated 19.0% revenue growth next year, to which the management responded with a cautious optimism, highlighting their focus on core business areas and cost management.

3. NewsRoom

Smart Parcel Locker Market Research Report 2025-2030: New Product Launches, Logistics Partnerships, Last-Mile Innovations, and Tariff Impacts

Nov -24

Source:

InPost S.A. Just Missed EPS By 53%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Nov -10

Source:

The battle to own one of Britain’s worst parcel companies

Oct -26

Source:

European Stocks That May Be Trading Below Their Estimated Value

Oct -20

Source:

European Stocks That Might Be Trading Below Their Estimated Value

Sep -10

Source:

InPost (ENXTAM:INPST) Slides 7.7% After Profit Drop Despite Higher Sales—Is Margin Pressure Here to Stay?

Sep -06

Source:

E-commerce company Allegro not in disagreement with any partners, CEO says

Sep -05

Source:

InPost partners with Bloq.it to install 20K parcel lockers

Sep -03

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (9.44%)

6. Segments

Automated Parcel Machines

Expected Growth: 9.78%

InPost S.A.'s Automated Parcel Machines growth is driven by increasing e-commerce adoption, convenience-seeking consumers, and cost savings for logistics companies. Additionally, the machines' 24/7 availability, ease of use, and reduced labor costs contribute to their popularity. Furthermore, InPost's strategic partnerships and expanding network of machines across Poland and abroad fuel growth.

Mondial Relay

Expected Growth: 9.33%

Mondial Relay's 9.33% growth is driven by increasing e-commerce adoption, strategic partnerships, and expansion into new markets. InPost S.A.'s acquisition has brought operational efficiencies, while investments in digitalization and logistics have enhanced customer experience. Strong demand for parcel delivery services, particularly in the B2C segment, has also contributed to the growth.

To-Door

Expected Growth: 9.27%

InPost S.A.'s To-Door service growth of 9.27% is driven by increasing e-commerce adoption, rising demand for convenient delivery options, and strategic partnerships with online retailers. Additionally, investments in technology and infrastructure have improved operational efficiency, enabling InPost to handle higher volumes and expand its customer base.

Other

Expected Growth: 8.33%

InPost S.A.'s 8.33% growth is driven by increasing e-commerce adoption, strategic partnerships, and expansion into new markets. The company's innovative parcel locker network and efficient logistics operations have enabled it to capitalize on the growing demand for convenient and fast delivery services.

7. Detailed Products

InPost Lockers

Automated parcel lockers that allow customers to send and receive parcels at their convenience

InPost Courier

Door-to-door courier service for sending and receiving parcels and documents

InPost Fulfillment

E-commerce logistics and fulfillment services for online retailers

InPost Returns

Streamlined returns process for e-commerce customers

InPost Shipping

Cost-effective shipping solutions for businesses and individuals

InPost Logistics

Customized logistics solutions for businesses

8. InPost S.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

InPost S.A. operates in a market with moderate threat of substitutes, as customers have alternative options for parcel delivery services.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

InPost S.A. has a large customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers, giving the company an upper hand in negotiations.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

InPost S.A. relies on a network of suppliers for its operations, but it has a moderate level of bargaining power due to the availability of alternative suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The parcel delivery market has high barriers to entry, including significant capital investments and regulatory hurdles, making it difficult for new entrants to compete with InPost S.A.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The parcel delivery market is highly competitive, with several established players competing for market share, which increases the intensity of rivalry for InPost S.A.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	83.71%
Debt Cost	8.00%
Equity Weight	16.29%
Equity Cost	10.10%
WACC	8.34%
Leverage	513.79%

11. Quality Control: InPost S.A. passed 5 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Deb

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

ISS

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 1.9

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Elis

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 3.1

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Intertek

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Sodexo

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 3.7

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

ID Logistics

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 7.9

Quality: 2.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

InPost

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 8.0

Quality: 5.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

-7.69%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

8.34%

InPost S.A. - LU2290522684

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on INPST

1.c. Company Highlights

Higher Growth

Expensive

Strong Momentum

Earnings Beats

Lower Yield

Revenues Miss

Revenues Beats

Earnings Miss

Fairly Valued

Average Quality

Weak Momentum

2. Missing the Mark: A Deep Dive into the Earnings Report

Valuation Metrics: Understanding What's Priced In

Operational Insights and Future Outlook

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (9.44%)

6. Segments

Automated Parcel Machines

Expected Growth: 9.78%

Mondial Relay

Expected Growth: 9.33%

To-Door

Expected Growth: 9.27%

Other

Expected Growth: 8.33%

7. Detailed Products

InPost Lockers

InPost Courier

InPost Fulfillment

InPost Returns

InPost Shipping

InPost Logistics

8. InPost S.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: InPost S.A. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

9.89$

Current Price

9.89$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA