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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

ING Groep N.V., a financial institution, provides various banking products and services in the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Poland, Rest of Europe, North America, Latin America, Asia, and Australia.It operates in six segments: Retail Netherlands, Retail Belgium, Retail Germany, Retail Other, Wholesale Banking, and Corporate Line Banking.The company accepts various deposits, such as current and savings accounts; and offers business lending products, as well as consumer lending products, such as residential mortgage loans, term loans, and revolver and personal loans.


It also provides debt capital market, working capital, export finance, daily banking, treasury and risk, and corporate finance solutions; and specialized lending, equity market, finance, payments and cash management, and trade services and solutions, as well as savings, investment, insurance, mortgage, and digital banking services.The company serves customers, corporate clients, and financial institutions, including small and medium-sized, and mid-corporates.ING Groep N.V. was founded in 1762 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

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1.b. Last Insights on INGA

ING Groep's recent performance was driven by strong Q3 2025 earnings, exceeding analyst expectations, and upgraded full-year fee growth forecast. The company's net result was €1,787 million, with growth in fee income and customer lending. A €1.6 billion capital return plan, including a €1.1 billion share buyback and €500 million special dividend, also boosted investor sentiment. Additionally, ING's robust commercial momentum, with significant gains in mobile customers and sustainable finance, contributed to its positive outlook. (Source: Morgan Stanley upgraded ING to Overweight)

1.c. Company Highlights

2. ING Groep's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Quarter Amidst Uncertainty

ING Groep reported a robust Q3 2025, with total income reaching nearly the record level achieved a year ago. The company's net interest income (NII) grew strongly, driven by Wholesale Banking Lending, while fee income rose by 15% year-on-year, driven by structural revenue drivers across both Retail and Wholesale Banking. The EPS came in at €0.606, beating estimates of €0.54. The company's expenses, excluding regulatory costs and incidental items, rose less than 3% year-on-year, reflecting a prudent approach. With a strong commercial performance and capital generation, ING Groep is on track to achieve its annual growth target of 1 million customers in 2025.

Publication Date: Nov -01

📋 Highlights
  • Customer Growth:: Added nearly 200,000 mobile primary customers and EUR 1.1 billion in total growth over the past 12 months.
  • Loan Expansion:: EUR 8.6 billion net core lending growth in Retail and Wholesale, driven by strong Retail loan book expansion.
  • Fee Income Momentum:: 15% year-on-year fee income growth, with full-year growth revised to over 10%, supported by structural drivers in both segments.
  • Capital Distribution:: EUR 1.6 billion in shareholder returns (EUR 1.1 billion share buyback + EUR 500 million dividend) and CET1 ratio target updated to around 13%.
  • ROE and Income Projections:: ROE expectation raised to over 12.5% for 2025, with total income projected at EUR 22.8 billion, nearing the 2024 record level.

Financial Performance

The company's financial performance was characterized by a strong NII, driven by a robust Wholesale Banking Lending business. The net core lending growth in Retail was significant, with €8.6 billion in net core lending growth. The company's fee income continued its upward trend, with a 12% year-to-date growth, leading to a revised full-year growth outlook of more than 10%. The company's ROE expectation for the year has been raised to more than 12.5%, indicating a strong profitability.

Valuation

ING Groep's valuation metrics indicate a reasonable pricing. The Price-to-Tangible Book Value (P/TBV) is around 1.33, which is slightly above the industry average. The Dividend Yield is attractive at 5.62%, indicating a stable return for investors. The Net Interest Margin (NIM) is expected to grow from 125 bps to 130 bps over the next few years, driven by the normalization of mortgage financing and the expected return to growth in Wholesale Banking loan growth.

Business Outlook

ING Groep remains confident about its business outlook, with a strong momentum in fee growth driven by customer growth and increased activities with customers. The company expects to continue to invest in its business to grow revenue over risk-weighted assets. The company's CET1 ratio target has been updated to around 13%, and it remains committed to delivering strong shareholder returns. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 6.3%, indicating a stable growth trajectory.

Capital Management

The company announced an additional €1.6 billion distribution, consisting of a €1.1 billion share buyback and a €500 million cash dividend. ING Groep is comfortable with dipping below the CET1 ratio target on an interim results basis and has a structural capital excess over 13%, which it will consider for distribution. The company's capital targets will be communicated more widely to its teams, and the divisional ROE will be based on 13% of risk-weighted assets.

3. NewsRoom

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Crypto Weekly: American Bitcoin's bumpy week, Binance's new co-CEO

Dec -04

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Euro Rises on Weaker Dollar, Steady ECB Rate Expectations

Dec -04

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ING Flags Upside Potential in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield

Dec -04

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ING Comments on Euro, Poland's Zloty

Dec -03

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10 EU Banks Unite to Launch Euro Stablecoin by 2026

Dec -03

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BNP Paribas Joins EU Bank Stablecoin Venture Helmed by Ex-Coinbase Germany Exec

Dec -02

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10 European Banks Form Stablecoin Company qivalis

Dec -02

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Slight Uptick in Eurozone Inflation Makes December Rate Decision "Easy" for The ECB, Says ING

Dec -02

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.44%)

6. Segments

Wholesale Banking

Expected Growth: 4.5%

ING Wholesale Banking's growth is driven by increasing demand for lending, transaction and market-related products among corporate and institutional clients, particularly in emerging markets, and its strategic expansion into Asia and Latin America.

Retail Banking Netherlands

Expected Growth: 4.5%

ING's Retail Banking Netherlands benefits from increasing demand for digital banking services, a growing Dutch economy, and a strong market position, driving growth in its lending and payment services.

Retail Banking Other

Expected Growth: 4.5%

ING Groep N.V.’s non-core retail banking activities are expected to grow driven by increasing adoption of digital banking, expanding geographic presence, and focus on innovation, leading to improved operational efficiency and enhanced customer experience.

Retail Banking Germany

Expected Growth: 4.5%

ING Groep N.V.’s Retail Banking Germany is expected to grow driven by increasing demand for digital banking services, a low interest rate environment, and a strong brand presence in the German market.

Retail Banking Belgium

Expected Growth: 4.5%

ING Groep N.V’s Retail Banking Belgium benefits from the country’s stable economy, growing demand for digital banking, and increasing adoption of mobile payments, driving growth in the personal banking segment.

Corporate Line

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Growing demand for flexible credit solutions, increasing working capital and investment needs of businesses drive the growth of The Corporate Line from ING Groep N.V.

Unallocated EU 'IAS 39 Carve Out' Impact

Expected Growth: 5.3%

ING Groep N.V.'s unallocated EU IAS 39 carve-out impact, driven by unrealized gains on available-for-sale securities not attributed to specific business units, is expected to grow steadily.

7. Detailed Products

Retail Banking

ING provides personal banking services to individuals, including current and savings accounts, credit cards, personal loans, and mortgages.

Wholesale Banking

ING offers corporate banking services to large corporations, including cash management, trade finance, and lending.

Commercial Banking

ING provides banking services to small and medium-sized enterprises, including business loans, credit cards, and cash management.

Investment Management

ING offers investment management services to individuals and institutions, including mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, and institutional mandates.

Insurance

ING provides life insurance, non-life insurance, and pension products to individuals and companies.

Wealth Management

ING offers wealth management services to high net worth individuals, including investment advice, portfolio management, and estate planning.

8. ING Groep N.V.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

ING Groep N.V. operates in a highly competitive industry, and customers have various alternatives to choose from. However, the company's strong brand recognition and diversified product offerings mitigate the threat of substitutes to some extent.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

ING Groep N.V. has a large customer base, and individual customers have limited bargaining power. However, the company operates in a highly competitive industry, and customers can easily switch to competitors, giving them significant bargaining power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

ING Groep N.V. has a diversified supplier base, and no single supplier has significant bargaining power over the company. The company's large scale of operations also gives it negotiating power over its suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The banking and financial services industry has high barriers to entry, including regulatory hurdles and significant capital requirements. This limits the threat of new entrants and gives ING Groep N.V. a competitive advantage.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The banking and financial services industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. ING Groep N.V. faces intense competition from both traditional banks and fintech companies, which can erode its market share and profitability.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 81.63%
Debt Cost 12.08%
Equity Weight 18.37%
Equity Cost 12.08%
WACC 12.08%
Leverage 444.31%

11. Quality Control: ING Groep N.V. passed 0 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
HSBC

A-Score: 8.0/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 7.3

Quality: 6.3

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
NatWest

A-Score: 7.3/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
ING

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Barclays

A-Score: 7.1/10

Value: 9.0

Growth: 7.2

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Handelsbanken

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 5.5

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
UBS

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 4.2

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 5.6

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

22.74$

Current Price

22.74$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows