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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Akzo Nobel N.V. engages in the production and sale of paints and coatings worldwide.It offers decorative paints, including paints, lacquers, and varnishes; and a range of mixing machines and color concepts for the building and renovation industry, as well as specialty coatings for metal, wood, and other building materials.The company also provides performance coatings that protect and enhance ships, cars, aircraft, yachts, architectural components, consumer goods, and oil and gas facilities.


It offers its products primarily under Dulux, International, Sikkens, and Interpon brands.The company was formerly known as Akzo NV and changed its name to Akzo Nobel N.V. in 1994.Akzo Nobel N.V. was founded in 1646 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

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1.b. Last Insights on AKZA

Akzo Nobel's recent performance was negatively impacted by a decline in sales and profit, largely due to foreign exchange rate headwinds and tepid market conditions. The company's decision to sell its Indian unit for $1.6 billion and focus on its business-to-business offering in Asia may weigh on short-term earnings. Additionally, volatile raw material costs and heightened competition in the paint industry pose challenges. Despite a rating upgrade to Strong Buy, concerns surrounding the company's earnings prospects persist. Cevian's recent stake build, however, suggests long-term value potential.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Akzo Nobel's Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results: A Stronger Company in the Making

Akzo Nobel's full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA was EUR 1.444 billion, a figure within 1% of the initial constant currency guidance, with profitability at 14.2%, up 40 basis points from the previous year. The company's Q4 volumes were down 2% year-on-year, but price/mix was up 1%, and adjusted EBITDA was EUR 309 million, or EUR 343 million excluding ForEx translation and the Indian divestment, up 7% on a comparable basis. The actual EPS was not disclosed, but it was relative to estimates at '0.94'.

Publication Date: Feb -08

📋 Highlights
  • EBITDA Performance:: Full-year adjusted EBITDA reached EUR 1.444 billion (14.2% profitability), up 40 bps YoY, with Q4 adjusted EBITDA of EUR 309 million (7% higher on comparable basis).
  • Cost and Cash Flow Efficiency:: Net OpEx savings of EUR 98 million and free cash flow of EUR 606 million achieved, with leverage reduced to 2x by year-end.
  • Mergers & Synergies:: Merger with Axalta planned for late 2026/early 2027, targeting EUR 600+ million in synergies and 100–200 bps gross margin improvement.
  • Market Share and Momentum:: Gained share in Marine, Deco (Latin America, UK), and Vehicle Refinish, while Packaging decline is temporary; no significant share loss.
  • 2026 Guidance:: Aims for at least EUR 100 million EBITDA growth (target EUR 1.47 billion) driven by costs, with weak H1 and recovery in H2 expected.

Operational Performance and Cash Flow

The company achieved net OpEx savings of EUR 98 million year-to-date and free cash flow of EUR 606 million. The leverage ratio was reduced to 2x, in line with midterm ambitions. The sale of Akzo Nobel India Limited generated approximately EUR 900 million in proceeds. The company's cash flow has improved, driven by working capital takeout, with a 15.7% reduction at the end of last year and 14.7% at the end of 2025.

Guidance and Outlook

For 2026, Akzo Nobel aims to increase full-year adjusted EBITDA by at least EUR 100 million on a comparable basis, driven by costs rather than volume, with a reported adjusted EBITDA at or above EUR 1.47 billion. The company expects a weak first half, with a recovery in the second half. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 2.4%. A merger of equals with Axalta was announced, expected to close late in 2026 or early in 2027, with at least $600 million of cost synergies and revenue synergies to boost gross margin by 100 to 200 basis points.

Valuation and Ratios

Akzo Nobel's current valuation metrics include a P/E Ratio of 15.8, P/B Ratio of 2.15, and EV/EBITDA of 8.61. The company's ROE is 14.61%, and Net Debt / EBITDA is 2.1. The Dividend Yield is 3.38%, and Free Cash Flow Yield is 6.04%. These metrics suggest that the company is trading at a reasonable valuation, with a decent dividend yield and a relatively low EV/EBITDA ratio.

Market Share and Pricing

In terms of market share, AkzoNobel hasn't lost share in Vehicle Refinish, and the decline in Packaging is temporary and linked to product introduction and approvals. The company has made progress on costs, but hasn't focused on gaining market share at the expense of pricing. The company has been gaining market share in Marine Protective and Deco. The company feels comfortable that it is either defending or gaining market share, apart from a temporary packaging issue.

3. NewsRoom

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Akzo Nobel (AMS:AKZA) Will Pay A Dividend Of €1.54

Feb -07

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New Strong Sell Stocks for February 6th

Feb -06

Source: zacks.com

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New Strong Sell Stocks for February 5th

Feb -05

Source: zacks.com

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Akzo Nobel NV (AKZOF) Full Year 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong EBITDA Performance Amid ...

Feb -05

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Akzo Nobel Flags Flat Earnings Outlook as Shares Drop 4.9%

Feb -03

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Akzo Nobel Paints Rosy Profit Picture Ahead of Axalta Tie-Up, Despite Drab Markets

Feb -03

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Dulux paint maker Akzo Nobel India posts profit fall on impact of new labour codes

Feb -02

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Akzo Nobel Insiders Added €2.76m Of Stock To Their Holdings

Jan -20

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.90%)

6. Segments

Performance Coatings

Expected Growth: 2.5%

Akzo Nobel's Performance Coatings segment growth of 2.5% is driven by increasing demand for sustainable and eco-friendly coatings in the automotive and aerospace industries, as well as growing adoption of digital technologies and e-commerce platforms, leading to higher sales volumes and market share gains.

Decorative Paints

Expected Growth: 3.5%

Akzo Nobel's Decorative Paints segment growth of 3.5% is driven by increasing demand for sustainable and eco-friendly products, expansion in emerging markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on innovation, digitalization, and cost savings initiatives contribute to its growth. Furthermore, the rising trend of home decoration and renovation, particularly among millennials, also supports the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Decorative Paints

Akzo Nobel's decorative paints are used to protect and decorate buildings, homes, and other structures.

Performance Coatings

Akzo Nobel's performance coatings are used to protect and enhance the appearance of industrial equipment, vehicles, and other products.

Specialty Chemicals

Akzo Nobel's specialty chemicals are used in a variety of applications, including the production of paper, textiles, and construction materials.

Industrial Finishes

Akzo Nobel's industrial finishes are used to protect and enhance the appearance of industrial equipment, machinery, and other products.

Powder Coatings

Akzo Nobel's powder coatings are used to provide a durable, corrosion-resistant finish for metal products.

Wood Finishes

Akzo Nobel's wood finishes are used to protect and enhance the appearance of wood products.

Marine and Protective Coatings

Akzo Nobel's marine and protective coatings are used to protect ships, offshore platforms, and other marine structures from corrosion.

8. Akzo Nobel N.V.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Akzo Nobel N.V. operates in a market with moderate threat of substitutes. While there are some alternatives to its products, they are not easily substitutable, and the company's strong brand recognition and customer loyalty mitigate the threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Akzo Nobel N.V.'s customers have limited bargaining power due to the company's strong market position and diversified customer base. The company's products are also often customized, making it difficult for customers to switch to alternative suppliers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Akzo Nobel N.V. has a moderate level of dependence on its suppliers, particularly for raw materials. However, the company's large scale and diversified supply chain mitigate the bargaining power of its suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants in Akzo Nobel N.V.'s market is low due to the high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements, regulatory hurdles, and the need for specialized expertise.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Akzo Nobel N.V. operates in a highly competitive market with several established players. The company faces intense rivalry from its competitors, which drives innovation and pricing pressures.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 55.40%
Debt Cost 5.70%
Equity Weight 44.60%
Equity Cost 9.49%
WACC 7.39%
Leverage 124.22%

11. Quality Control: Akzo Nobel N.V. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Johnson Matthey

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 2.2

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Akzo Nobel

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 5.6

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Clariant

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Arkema

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 2.7

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
IMCD

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 4.5

Growth: 6.7

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 3.8

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Symrise

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 1.9

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

58.82$

Current Price

58.82$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows