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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Gjensidige Forsikring ASA provides general insurance and pension products in Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.The company operates through six segments: General Insurance Private, General Insurance Commercial, General Insurance Denmark, General Insurance Sweden, General Insurance Baltics, and Pension.It offers motor, home, accident and health, travel, leisure craft, boat, valuables, liability, commercial, marine/transport, agriculture, natural perils, life, and pet insurance products.


The company also provides defined contribution occupational pension schemes for businesses, which include disability pension, spouse/cohabitant pension, and child's pension products.It distributes its products through various distribution channels comprising office channel, call center, Internet, partners, and brokers to private and commercial customers.The company was founded in 1816 and is headquartered in Oslo, Norway.

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1.b. Last Insights on GJF

Gjensidige Forsikring ASA's recent performance was driven by a favorable market environment, with the pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index experiencing a positive upswing. The company's undervaluation, estimated to be up to 48.6% below its intrinsic value, presents a significant discount opportunity for investors. Additionally, the company's recent earnings release, if any, may have contributed to its positive performance, although specific details are not available. Furthermore, the company's potential for growth and resilience in the face of economic uncertainties may have attracted investor interest.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Gjensidige's Q4 2025 Results: Strong Financial Performance and Strategic Progress

Gjensidige reported a robust financial performance in Q4 2025, driven by solid revenue growth, efficient operations, and good cost control. The company's general insurance service result was NOK 1.297 billion, with an adjusted combined ratio of 83.8%, reflecting a 0.7 percentage point improvement in the underlying frequency loss ratio. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at NOK 2.58, below analyst estimates of NOK 3.72. Revenue growth was 11.5%, supported by successful pricing measures and operational improvements. The cost ratio was 12.7%, within the company's target.

Publication Date: Feb -04

📋 Highlights
  • Adjusted Insurance Service Result:: NOK 1.297 billion, with an 8% increase excluding NOK 502 million in IT and workforce costs.
  • Combined Ratio Improvement:: 83.4% (2.5 pts improvement) and a cost ratio of 12.7%, below target, reflecting strong cost control.
  • Profit Before Tax:: NOK 1.754 billion, driven by NOK 482 million investment returns and a 27.3% return on equity.
  • Dividend Proposal:: NOK 7.25 billion (NOK 10/share regular + NOK 4.5/share special), 11% increase from 2024 regular dividend.
  • IT System Write-Down:: NOK 502 million in Denmark, with flexibility to extend Norway’s existing system and consider Denmark’s system for Sweden.

Underwriting Profitability and Claims Frequency

The company's underwriting profitability remains strong, with a combined ratio of 83.4%, a 2.5 percentage point improvement. Claims frequency is expected to remain flat for property claims, except for climate-related damages, which are expected to increase. For private cars, claims frequency is expected to increase by 1% to 2%. As Jostein Amdal noted, the support from reserve releases in Private Denmark was a natural part of the business, with a positive effect on claims.

Strategic Progress and IT System Developments

Gjensidige is making progress on its strategic initiatives, including the replacement of its core IT system in Denmark. The company has gained higher optionality in what to do in Norway and Sweden and is satisfied with the existing system in Norway. The write-down of the IT system provides optionality to utilize the core system in Norway and Sweden in the future.

Valuation and Dividend Yield

Gjensidige's Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B) is 5.53, and the Dividend Yield is 3.61%. The company's Return on Equity (ROE) is 27.14%, indicating strong profitability. The proposed total dividend of NOK 7.250 billion for the year, consisting of a regular dividend of NOK 5 billion and a special dividend of NOK 2.250 billion, reflects the company's commitment to returning capital to shareholders.

Outlook and Conclusion

Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 5.0%. Gjensidige's strong financial performance, strategic progress, and commitment to returning capital to shareholders position the company well for future growth. The company's valuation metrics, including its P/B Ratio and Dividend Yield, suggest that it is reasonably valued.

3. NewsRoom

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (6.60%)

6. Segments

General Insurance Commercial

Expected Growth: 7.0%

The commercial insurance market is anticipated to grow due to an increase in businesses seeking insurance products, driven by economic stability and regulatory requirements in Norway and Denmark, justifying a slightly higher growth rate than the global hypothesis.

General Insurance Private

Expected Growth: 6.8%

The private insurance market is expected to grow steadily, driven by increasing awareness of insurance products among individuals and a stable economic environment in Norway and Denmark, supporting a growth rate slightly above the average.

General Insurance Sweden

Expected Growth: 7.2%

The Swedish insurance market is anticipated to experience higher growth due to the segment's diversified portfolio, catering to both individuals and businesses, and the overall economic stability in Sweden, justifying a growth rate higher than the global average.

Other Including Eliminations

Expected Growth: 6.0%

This segment's growth is less directly tied to the insurance market's performance and more to internal transactions and other activities, justifying a more conservative growth estimate, slightly below the global hypothesis.

Pension

Expected Growth: 7.5%

The pension market is expected to experience significant growth driven by an aging population and the need for supplementary pension savings in Norway, justifying a higher growth rate than the global hypothesis.

7. Detailed Products

Motor Insurance

Gjensidige Forsikring ASA offers motor insurance that covers damages to vehicles, as well as liability for damages to others.

Home Insurance

Gjensidige Forsikring ASA's home insurance covers damages to homes and personal belongings, as well as liability for damages to others.

Travel Insurance

Gjensidige Forsikring ASA's travel insurance covers unexpected events that may occur during travel, such as trip cancellations, medical emergencies, and luggage loss.

Life Insurance

Gjensidige Forsikring ASA's life insurance provides financial protection for loved ones in the event of death or serious illness.

Pension and Savings

Gjensidige Forsikring ASA's pension and savings products help individuals plan for retirement and achieve long-term financial goals.

Business Insurance

Gjensidige Forsikring ASA's business insurance covers risks associated with running a business, such as liability, property damage, and business interruption.

8. Gjensidige Forsikring ASA's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Gjensidige Forsikring ASA is moderate due to the presence of alternative insurance providers in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low as Gjensidige Forsikring ASA has a strong brand presence and a large customer base, making it difficult for individual customers to negotiate prices.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is moderate as Gjensidige Forsikring ASA relies on a network of suppliers for its operations, but has some flexibility to negotiate prices.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the insurance industry, including regulatory requirements and capital requirements.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high in the Norwegian insurance market, with several established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 15.18%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 84.82%
Equity Cost 4.97%
WACC 4.81%
Leverage 17.89%

11. Quality Control: Gjensidige Forsikring ASA passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Ageas

A-Score: 7.1/10

Value: 5.7

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Gjensidige Forsikring

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 2.2

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 8.0

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Aegon

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 9.2

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 7.6

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Baloise Holding

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 1.4

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Tryg

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 3.3

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 8.2

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Direct Line Insurance

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 2.6

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

274.4$

Current Price

274.4$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows