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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

EDP - Energias de Portugal, S.A. engages in the production, transmission, distribution, and commercialization of electricity in Portugal, Spain, France, Poland, Romania, Italy, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Greece, Brazil, North America, and internationally.The company operates through Renewables, Networks, and Client Solutions & Energy Management segments.It primarily generates electricity through hydro, CCGT, coal, wind, solar, nuclear, and cogeneration sources.


The company is also involved in the commercialization of natural gas.It has an installed capacity of 25 GW; and serves 8.7 million electricity customers and 0.7 million gas customers.The company also operates 378,155 kilometers of distribution network lines.


In addition, it offers engineering, laboratory tests, professional training, and energy services, as well as manages real estate assets.EDP - Energias de Portugal, S.A. was incorporated in 1976 and is headquartered in Lisbon, Portugal.

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1.b. Last Insights on EDP

EDP's recent performance was negatively impacted by investors' cautious stance on its asset rotation strategy, despite the sale of a 207 MW solar portfolio in Italy. This move aligns with the company's plan to reallocate capital within its renewables business, potentially sharpening its focus on higher-priority growth opportunities. EDP's €12 billion investment program for 2026-28, focused on renewables and electricity networks, may face challenges in capturing rising electricity demand. Additionally, the company's reliance on asset rotation and its ability to execute its growth plan may be scrutinized by investors.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. EDP's 2025 Earnings: A Resilient Performance

EDP's 2025 recurring EBITDA reached EUR 5 billion, outperforming the EUR 4.9 billion guidance, driven by a better-than-expected fourth quarter in the integrated segment in Iberia. The company's recurring net profit was EUR 1.3 billion, down 8% versus 2024, mainly due to higher financial expenses. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at EUR 0.05441, below analyst estimates of EUR 0.05883. Net debt was EUR 15.4 billion, better than the EUR 16 billion guidance.

Publication Date: Mar -01

📋 Highlights
  • Outperformed EBITDA Guidance:: 2025 recurring EBITDA reached EUR 5 billion vs. EUR 4.9 billion guidance, driven by Iberia's integrated segment.
  • Net Debt Improvement:: Net debt stood at EUR 15.4 billion, under EUR 16 billion guidance, despite EUR 989 million in higher net financial costs.
  • Dividend Increase:: Proposed dividend of EUR 0.205 per share, reflecting a small but positive outlook amid lower recurring net profit (down 8% to EUR 1.3 billion).
  • Capital Expenditure Boost:: EUR 80 million allocated for extreme weather recovery, with EUR 4.1 billion in gross investments planned for 2026–2030 (58% higher than 2021–2025).
  • EDPR Growth Momentum:: Recurring underlying EBITDA surged 27% YoY in 2025, supported by 1.3 GW capacity additions over six months and 2.8 GW secured for 2026–2028.

Operational Highlights

EDP's hydro net generation was almost 10 terawatt hours, down 2% year-on-year, while hydro premium versus baseload increased to 21%. Pumped hydro pumping volumes increased 24% year-on-year. The company's Iberia business is seeing strong electricity demand growth, driven by electrification, with an estimated 2% CAGR in Iberian electricity demand up to 2030. EDPR secured 1.3 gigawatts of capacity over the last six months, with 2.8 gigawatts secured for 2026-2028.

Segmental Performance

EDPR's recurring underlying EBITDA grew by 27% year-on-year, reflecting a significant step-up in generation following record capacity additions in '24. Networks' recurring EBITDA reached EUR 1.54 billion in '25, representing a 4% decrease year-on-year, primarily explained by the devaluation of the Brazilian real. EBITDA for FlexGen and Clients segment stood at EUR 1.46 million in '25, down 13% year-on-year due to normalization of gas sourcing costs and extraordinary 2024 performance.

Guidance and Outlook

The company guides for recurring EBITDA of around EUR 4.9 billion to EUR 5 billion in 2026 and reaffirms 2028 targets, including EUR 12 billion of gross investments and EUR 5.2 billion of recurring EBITDA. EDP has hedged a significant portion of their volumes: 85% of 2026 volumes are hedged at a price above EUR 64 per megawatt hour, and 50% of 2027 and 2028 volumes are hedged above current forward prices.

Valuation

With a P/E Ratio of 16.16 and an EV/EBITDA of 7.14, the market appears to be pricing in a moderate growth trajectory for EDP. The Dividend Yield stands at 4.43%, indicating an attractive income proposition for investors. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio of 3.72 suggests a manageable debt burden. As the company navigates the evolving energy landscape, its commitment to cost discipline and strategic investments will be crucial in driving future growth.

3. NewsRoom

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Is Energias de Portugal (EDPFY) Stock Outpacing Its Utilities Peers This Year?

Feb -04

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Is EDP's Italian Solar Sale Reshaping Its Asset Rotation Strategy And Investment Case (ENXTLS:EDP)?

Dec -15

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EDP (ENXTLS:EDP) Valuation After Italian Solar Portfolio Sale and Renewables Asset Mix Shift

Dec -14

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Green Stocks Are Big Winners as Tech Boom Drives Energy Demand

Dec -13

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Are Utilities Stocks Lagging Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP) This Year?

Nov -25

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EDP Targets €12 Billion in Investments Under 2026–28 Growth Plan

Nov -06

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Evaluating EDP (ENXTLS:EDP) Shares: Is There Value Left After This Year's Strong Rise?

Oct -25

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Are Utilities Stocks Lagging Atmos Energy (ATO) This Year?

Oct -06

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.05%)

6. Segments

Renewables, Clients & Energy Management

Expected Growth: 9%

EDP's 9% growth in Renewables, Clients & Energy Management is driven by increasing demand for clean energy, strategic acquisitions, and investments in digitalization and grid modernization. Additionally, the company's focus on customer-centric solutions and energy efficiency services has contributed to its growth.

Networks

Expected Growth: 7%

EDP's 7% growth in Networks is driven by increasing demand for renewable energy, grid modernization, and electrification of transportation. Strong government support for decarbonization, rising electricity consumption, and EDP's strategic investments in grid infrastructure and digitalization also contribute to this growth.

Adjustments and Elimination of Inter-segment Operations

Expected Growth: 5%

EDP's 5% growth driven by increased renewable energy production, expansion into new markets, and cost savings from operational efficiencies. Additionally, strategic acquisitions and partnerships have enhanced the company's portfolio, while favorable regulatory environments have supported growth. Furthermore, investments in digitalization and grid modernization have improved operational performance and customer satisfaction.

Other

Expected Growth: 6%

EDP - Energias de Portugal, S.A.'s 6% growth in 'Other' segment is driven by increasing demand for renewable energy solutions, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, investments in digitalization and operational efficiency have improved cost management, contributing to the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Electricity Generation

EDP generates electricity through various sources such as wind, hydro, thermal, and solar power.

Electricity Distribution

EDP distributes electricity to customers through a network of power lines, substations, and transformers.

Electricity Trading

EDP trades electricity on the wholesale market, buying and selling electricity to balance supply and demand.

Renewable Energy Solutions

EDP offers renewable energy solutions, such as wind and solar power, to customers seeking sustainable energy options.

Energy Efficiency Services

EDP provides energy efficiency services, including energy audits and optimization solutions, to help customers reduce energy consumption.

Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure

EDP develops and operates electric vehicle charging infrastructure, supporting the adoption of electric vehicles.

8. EDP - Energias de Portugal, S.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for EDP is medium due to the presence of alternative energy sources such as solar and wind power. However, the high cost of switching to these alternatives and the lack of infrastructure in some areas reduce the threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low due to the lack of alternative energy providers in some areas and the high cost of switching to alternative energy sources.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers of fuel and other inputs. However, the high cost of switching to alternative suppliers and the lack of substitutes for some inputs reduce the bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the energy industry, including the need for significant capital investment and regulatory approvals.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the presence of multiple energy providers in the market, leading to intense competition for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 64.62%
Debt Cost 6.68%
Equity Weight 35.38%
Equity Cost 6.68%
WACC 6.68%
Leverage 182.61%

11. Quality Control: EDP - Energias de Portugal, S.A. passed 0 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
ACEA

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Hera

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Iren

A-Score: 6.8/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
A2A

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
MVV Energie

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 8.7

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 3.1

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
EDP

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

0.04$

Current Price

0.04$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows