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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Castellum is one of Sweden's largest listed real estate companies with a property value of SEK 98 billion.We are active in 17 Swedish growth regions as well as in Copenhagen and Helsinki.Every day, 250,000 people go to work in our premises.


We develop flexible workplaces and logistics solutions in close proximity to city centers and with a lettable area of 4.3 million square meters.One of our sustainability goals is to be completely climate neutral by 2030.Castellum is the only Nordic real estate company selected by the Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI).


The Castellum share is listed on the Nasdaq Stockholm Large Cap.

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1.b. Last Insights on CAST

Castellum AB's recent performance was hindered by the Northvolt bankruptcy, which had a significant impact on the company's Q1 2025 results. The bankruptcy led to a challenging quarter, with the company navigating through the aftermath of this event. Furthermore, the company's efforts to drive growth through strategic investments and sustainability initiatives were overshadowed by the short-term disruptions caused by Northvolt's bankruptcy.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Castellum's Financial Performance Disappoints, Strategy Shift in Focus

Castellum's financial performance for 2025 was lackluster, with a return on equity of 1.2%, significantly below the company's target of 10%. The company's EPS came out at -0.23166, missing analyst estimates of 2.17. Revenue growth is expected to be 2.7% next year, according to analyst estimates. The company's net leasing was negative SEK 140 million, mainly due to a negative event in the first quarter. As Pal Ahlsen mentioned, "our focus has been on 'back to basics' with our new strategy," which includes decreasing costs and improving occupancy rates.

Publication Date: Feb -20

📋 Highlights
  • Return on Equity (ROE) Underperformance: 1.2% ROE in 2025 fell short of the 10% target over the business cycle.
  • Cost Reduction and Restructuring Costs: SEK 40 million in staff reduction costs (30 layoffs) and SEK 30 million in bond-related consent fees.
  • Property Value Decline: SEK 2.5 billion in property value drops in 2025, including SEK 1 billion in Q4, driven by vacancy and rental price changes.
  • Net Leasing Challenges: Negative net leasing of SEK 140 million for 2025, primarily from a first-quarter event, despite positive Q2-Q4 performance.
  • Buyback Strategy and Valuation Discount: Share buybacks prioritized over dividends due to a 32–33% discount to NAV, with SEK 1 billion bond refinancing at 122 bps.

Financial Highlights

The company's property values decreased by SEK 2.5 billion last year and SEK 1 billion in the fourth quarter, primarily due to changes in long-term vacancy and rental prices. Castellum invested SEK 4.4 billion in its properties and made some acquisitions during 2025. The occupancy rate remained fairly stable at 89.8%. The company's funding situation is favorable, with good market conditions and credit margins at good levels.

Valuation Metrics

Castellum's valuation metrics indicate a mixed picture. The company's P/E Ratio is 59.6, which may indicate high expectations for future growth. However, the P/B Ratio is 0.82, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued relative to its book value. The EV/EBITDA ratio is 35.68, which is relatively high. The ROE is 1.27%, which is below the company's target. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 19.77, indicating a significant debt burden.

Strategy Shift and Outlook

Castellum is shifting its strategy to focus on its core assets, including commercial real estate in Sweden. The company is also proposing share buybacks instead of dividend payments, which is in line with its new capital distribution policy. As Pal Ahlsen stated, "we're allocating our full capital distribution to buybacks, which is simple mathematics - if we're trading at a discount, we do buybacks, and if we're trading at a premium, we do dividends." The company's discount to NAV is currently 32-33%, making buybacks an attractive option.

3. NewsRoom

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Castellum AB (CWQXF) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with Strategic ...

Feb -18

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How Investors May Respond To Entra (OB:ENTRA) Board Changes Requested by Castellum

Sep -22

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Castellum (OM:CAST): Exploring Whether Recent Valuation Reflects True Potential or Lingering Sector Risks

Sep -13

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Castellum AB (CWQXF) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with Strategic ...

May -07

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Castellum AB (FRA:TEX) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Strategic Investments and Dividend ...

Feb -20

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (12.36%)

6. Segments

Like-for-like Portfolio

Expected Growth: 12%

Castellum AB's 12% like-for-like portfolio growth is driven by strong demand for logistics and office spaces, particularly in Sweden and Denmark. Rising e-commerce and urbanization trends support growth in logistics, while a thriving startup scene and increasing demand for flexible workspaces boost office demand. Effective asset management, strategic acquisitions, and a solid balance sheet also contribute to the company's growth momentum.

Development Properties

Expected Growth: 15%

Castellum AB's 15% growth in Development Properties is driven by increasing demand for sustainable and modern offices in Sweden, Norway, and Denmark. Strong economic growth, urbanization, and a shortage of high-quality properties fuel the demand. Additionally, Castellum's focus on energy-efficient and environmentally certified buildings, as well as its strategic acquisitions and partnerships, contribute to its growth momentum.

Coworking

Expected Growth: 18%

Castellum AB's coworking segment growth of 18% is driven by increasing demand for flexible workspaces, rising popularity of remote work, and growing need for community-driven offices. Additionally, the company's strategic expansion into new markets, investments in digital infrastructure, and focus on sustainability also contribute to its rapid growth.

Transactions

Expected Growth: 10%

Castellum AB's 10% growth is driven by strategic acquisitions, expanding presence in Nordic markets, and a strong focus on sustainable property development. Additionally, the company's diversified portfolio, efficient cost management, and increasing demand for logistics and e-commerce facilities contribute to its growth momentum.

Group-wide

Expected Growth: 13%

Castellum AB's 13% group-wide growth is driven by strategic acquisitions, increasing rental income from a diversified property portfolio, and a strong Swedish economy. Additionally, the company's focus on sustainable and energy-efficient properties, as well as its proactive management of properties, contributes to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Office Properties

Castellum AB (publ) offers office spaces for rent, providing modern and flexible work environments for businesses of all sizes.

Industrial and Logistics Properties

Castellum AB (publ) provides industrial and logistics properties for rent, offering customized solutions for businesses with specific storage and production needs.

Retail Properties

Castellum AB (publ) offers retail properties for rent, providing prime locations for businesses to connect with customers.

Residential Properties

Castellum AB (publ) develops and manages residential properties, offering comfortable and convenient living spaces for individuals and families.

Project Development

Castellum AB (publ) offers project development services, providing customized solutions for businesses and organizations with specific property needs.

Property Management

Castellum AB (publ) provides property management services, ensuring that properties are well-maintained and optimized for tenants.

8. Castellum AB (publ)'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Castellum AB (publ) is medium due to the availability of alternative real estate investment options for investors.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low as Castellum AB (publ) has a diversified tenant base and long-term contracts, reducing the negotiating power of individual customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is medium as Castellum AB (publ) relies on a few large contractors and suppliers for its development projects, giving them some negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the Swedish real estate market, including regulatory hurdles and the need for significant capital investment.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high in the Swedish real estate market, with several large players competing for market share and tenants.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 51.74%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 48.26%
Equity Cost 9.91%
WACC 6.83%
Leverage 107.21%

11. Quality Control: Castellum AB (publ) passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Develia

A-Score: 7.7/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 8.8

Quality: 7.5

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
CTP

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 6.8

Quality: 7.0

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Emilshus

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 3.8

Growth: 7.1

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Castellum

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 2.8

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 3.8

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Deutsche Wohnen

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 2.7

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Atrium Ljungberg

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 3.7

Growth: 2.2

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

112.35$

Current Price

112.35$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows