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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products in the United States, Spain, Australia, Iceland, Norway, Brazil, Canada, and internationally.The company operates through three segments: Bauxite, Alumina, and Aluminum.It engages in bauxite mining operations; and processes bauxite into alumina and sells it to customers who process it into industrial chemical products, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses.


The company offers primary aluminum in the form of alloy ingot or value-add ingot to customers that produce products for the transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and other industrial markets.In addition, it owns hydro power plants that generates and sells electricity in the wholesale market to traders, large industrial consumers, distribution companies, and other generation companies.The company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation and changed its name to Alcoa Corporation in October 2016.


The company was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

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1.b. Last Insights on AA

Breaking News: Alcoa Corporation presented at the Citigroup 2025 Basic Materials Conference on December 3 2025. No recent earnings release was provided in the data. The company shared its latest updates and outlook. Analysts at Citigroup have a buy recommendation on the stock. Other analysts at various firms have a hold or neutral stance. The company's management discussed its strategy and industry trends. They highlighted the company's strengths and addressed questions from investors. The presentation transcript is available for review.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Alcoa's Q3 2025 Earnings: Strong Operational Performance Amidst Challenging Market Conditions

Alcoa Corporation reported revenue of $3 billion for the third quarter of 2025, a 1% decline sequentially. Net income attributable to Alcoa was $232 million, with earnings per common share of $0.88. Adjusted EBITDA was $270 million. The company's actual EPS beat estimates by $0.13, as the reported EPS of -$0.02 was significantly better than the estimated -$0.15. The revenue was slightly below expectations, with analysts estimating a 0.2% growth for the next year.

Publication Date: Oct -23

📋 Highlights
  • Financial Performance:: Q3 revenue was $3B (-1% QoQ), net income $232M, and adjusted EBITDA of $270M, with a $786M gain from the Ma'aden joint venture sale.
  • Gallium Supply Chain Initiative:: A $100-ton gallium project at Wagerup, funded by Japan, U.S., and Australia, aims for first metal by 2026, with cost-plus offtake agreements.
  • Kwinana Closure Cost:: Permanent closure of the Kwinana smelter incurred a $1.6B charge due to water management and remediation, with land redeveloped for resale.
  • CBAM Regulatory Impact:: Anticipated $40-$50/ton European premium from the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026, boosting aluminum prices.
  • Debt Reduction Target:: $135M remaining to meet adjusted net debt goal, with $60M allocated to Massena anode furnace upgrades and $100M for Warrick smelter restart.

Operational Highlights

The company achieved record aluminum production at five smelters and increased Midwest premium revenue. CEO William Oplinger emphasized the company's commitment to safety, stability, and operational excellence. Alcoa closed the sale of its 25.1% interest in the Ma'aden joint venture, resulting in a $786 million gain. The company is progressing with its Australia mine approvals process, with the Western Australia EPA expected to publish its assessment and recommendations by the end of 2026.

Market Trends and Outlook

Alumina prices have declined due to ample spot availability and refinery expansions, while bauxite prices remain firm. Aluminum LME prices rose 7% sequentially, driven by a weaker US dollar and supply tightness. Alcoa expects higher shipments and a sequential release of working capital in the fourth quarter. The company is optimistic about the demand profile, with strength in packaging and electrical, but weakness in construction and transportation.

Valuation and Capital Allocation

Alcoa's P/E Ratio is 8.05, indicating a relatively attractive valuation. The company's Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 0.51, suggesting a healthy debt position. Alcoa prioritizes debt repayment, with $135 million to go to reach its adjusted net debt target. The company will evaluate additional returns to stockholders and growth options. Alcoa is open to M&A opportunities across the product line, focusing on creating significant synergies.

Regulatory Updates and Future Plans

Alcoa expects the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to come into effect in 2026, potentially raising the European premium by $40-$50 a ton, which would have a positive impact on the company. The company will host its Investor Day on October 30, discussing its strategic vision, market position, operational excellence, and financial outlook. Alcoa is exploring opportunities for its idled assets, particularly at Massena East, where electrical infrastructure is already in place.

3. NewsRoom

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Alcoa Corporation (AA) Presents at Citigroup 2025 Basic Materials Conference Transcript

Dec -03

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Must-Buy Non-Tech Stocks for 2026 Amid AI-Driven Data Center Boom

Dec -02

Source: zacks.com

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Creative Planning Has $825,000 Stock Position in Alcoa $AA

Dec -02

Source: defenseworld.net

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2 Stocks to Buy for a $3 Trillion Investment Boom

Nov -30

Source: investorplace.com

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Best Value Stocks to Buy for Nov. 26

Nov -26

Source: zacks.com

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Alcoa Corporation Announces Intention to Redeem in Full $141 Million of Outstanding 5.500% Notes Due 2027

Nov -25

Source: businesswire.com

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Alcoa $AA Shares Sold by Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd Zurich

Nov -23

Source: defenseworld.net

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Avventura Resources Ltd. Announces $100,000 Loan Facility from Mid Atlantic Capital Associates Ltd.

Nov -21

Source: thenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.60%)

6. Segments

Aluminum

Expected Growth: 3.5%

Alcoa's 3.5% growth in aluminum is driven by increasing demand from the automotive and aerospace industries, as well as growing adoption of aluminum in packaging and construction. Additionally, Alcoa's cost-cutting initiatives and productivity improvements have enhanced its competitiveness, contributing to the growth.

Alumina

Expected Growth: 3.8%

Alcoa's alumina segment growth of 3.8% is driven by increasing demand from the automotive and aerospace industries, coupled with rising aluminum prices. Additionally, the company's cost-cutting initiatives and productivity improvements have enhanced operational efficiency, contributing to the segment's growth.

Other

Expected Growth: 4.2%

Alcoa's 4.2% growth in 'Other' segment is driven by increasing demand for its rolling mill and aluminum sheet products, particularly in the automotive and packaging industries. Additionally, the company's focus on cost reduction and operational efficiency initiatives has contributed to the growth.

7. Detailed Products

Bauxite

A type of sedimentary rock that is rich in aluminum-bearing minerals, used as the primary source of aluminum production.

Alumina

A type of oxide compound that is used as an intermediate product in the production of aluminum.

Primary Aluminum

A type of aluminum that is produced from alumina through an electrolysis process.

Rolled Products

A type of aluminum product that is rolled into sheets, plates, and other forms for use in various industries.

Engineered Products

A type of aluminum product that is engineered for specific applications, such as fasteners, forgings, and castings.

Forged Products

A type of aluminum product that is forged into specific shapes and forms for use in various industries.

8. Alcoa Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Alcoa Corporation faces moderate threat from substitutes due to the availability of alternative materials such as steel, titanium, and advanced composites in certain applications.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Alcoa Corporation's customers, primarily in the aerospace, automotive, and construction industries, have limited bargaining power due to the company's diversified customer base and lack of concentration.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Alcoa Corporation's suppliers, primarily in the mining and energy sectors, have moderate bargaining power due to the company's dependence on certain raw materials and energy sources.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants in the aluminum industry is low due to the high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements, regulatory hurdles, and the need for specialized expertise.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry in the aluminum industry is high due to the presence of several large players, including Rio Tinto, BHP, and Norsk Hydro, which leads to intense competition for market share and pricing power.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 29.87%
Debt Cost 4.46%
Equity Weight 70.13%
Equity Cost 16.23%
WACC 12.72%
Leverage 42.60%

11. Quality Control: Alcoa Corporation passed 1 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
WD-40

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 1.5

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 8.2

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Axalta Coating Systems

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Alcoa

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 2.6

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Albemarle

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 2.9

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Materion

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 3.5

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Avantor

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

44.01$

Current Price

44.01$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows