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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products in the United States, Spain, Australia, Iceland, Norway, Brazil, Canada, and internationally.The company operates through three segments: Bauxite, Alumina, and Aluminum.It engages in bauxite mining operations; and processes bauxite into alumina and sells it to customers who process it into industrial chemical products, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses.


The company offers primary aluminum in the form of alloy ingot or value-add ingot to customers that produce products for the transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and other industrial markets.In addition, it owns hydro power plants that generates and sells electricity in the wholesale market to traders, large industrial consumers, distribution companies, and other generation companies.The company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation and changed its name to Alcoa Corporation in October 2016.


The company was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

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1.b. Last Insights on AA

Breaking News: Alcoa Corporation recently saw Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp increase its stake by 1467.4% during a recent quarter, acquiring 9230 shares to own 9859 shares total. There has been no recent earnings release available. Analysts at various firms have issued mixed recommendations, with some assigning a buy, others a hold, and a few a sell rating. Specifically, no recent recommendations have been made. The industrial products company continues to see changes in its shareholder base.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Alcoa's Q4 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Alcoa Corporation reported a robust fourth-quarter 2025, with revenue increasing 15% sequentially to $3.4 billion. The company's net income attributable to Alcoa was $226 million, or $0.85 per share, and adjusted net income was $335 million, or $1.26 per share, beating analyst estimates of $0.95. Adjusted EBITDA was $546 million, up $276 million sequentially, driven by higher metal prices and improved shipping performance.

Publication Date: Jan -25

📋 Highlights
  • Q4 2025 Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Surge:: Revenue rose 15% sequentially to $3.4B; adjusted EBITDA surged $276M to $546M, driven by higher metal prices and improved shipping performance.
  • Strong 2025 Financial Performance:: Achieved 16.4% return on equity and $594M free cash flow, ending the year with $1.6B in cash and $1.5B adjusted net debt.
  • 2026 CBAM Impact and Regional Advantages:: Anticipates $10/ton net positive impact from CBAM in Europe; European smelters benefit from lower carbon costs and lower Scope 1 emissions.
  • Alumina Segment Pressures and Monetization:: Alumina profitability likely breakeven in 2026, but plans to monetize idle sites for $500M–$1B over five years.
  • 2026 Production and Strategic Projects:: Outlines 2.4–2.6M tons aluminum production; San Ciprian restart to generate $20M EBITDA in Q1 and reach profitability by 2026.

Operational Highlights

The company achieved record production at five smelters and one refinery, and improved safety incident rates. For the full year 2025, Alcoa delivered improved performance on key cash flow and return on equity metrics, with return on equity of 16.4%, and free cash flow of $594 million.

Outlook and Guidance

The outlook for 2026 includes alumina production of 9.7-9.9 million tons, and aluminum production of 2.4-2.6 million tons. Alcoa expects EBITDA items outside the segments to be $100 million in transformation costs and $160 million in other corporate expense. Capital expenditures are estimated to be $750 million, with $675 million in sustaining and $75 million in return-seeking.

Market Dynamics and Competitive Advantage

Alcoa is well-positioned to navigate market volatility due to its low-cost mining and refining portfolio. The company's European smelters have a competitive advantage due to lower Scope 1 direct emissions, which results in comparatively lower carbon cost increases. Alcoa expects the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to have a net positive impact of around $10 per metric ton in 2026.

Valuation and Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 14.05 and an EV/EBITDA of 9.24, Alcoa's valuation appears reasonable. The company's ROE of 19.55% and ROIC of 10.37% indicate strong profitability. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 0.9%, which is relatively modest. The company's net debt to EBITDA ratio is 1.71, indicating a manageable debt level.

Growth Opportunities and Challenges

Alcoa has brownfield opportunities for growth in mining, refining, and smelting, but lacks greenfield expansion plans due to high energy costs and limited low-cost opportunities. The company is working on monetizing idle sites, with a target of $500 million to $1 billion over the next five years. Negotiations for a primary site are ongoing, involving a multi-year payment stream and value-sharing structures.

Conclusion on Financial Health

Alcoa has a comfortable net debt level of $1.46 billion and expects to generate cash in 2026, which will be used for debt repayment and potential shareholder returns or growth opportunities. The company's strong operating footprint in North America and Europe provides benefits from both US tariffs and CBAM implementation.

3. NewsRoom

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Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp Grows Position in Alcoa $AA

Feb -06

Source: defenseworld.net

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Strs Ohio Sells 28,937 Shares of Alcoa $AA

Feb -03

Source: defenseworld.net

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Alcoa $AA Shares Sold by Federated Hermes Inc.

Feb -01

Source: defenseworld.net

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34,795 Shares in Alcoa $AA Purchased by Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking Corp

Feb -01

Source: defenseworld.net

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Inside Alcoa's Latest Earnings

Jan -30

Source: forbes.com

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Buy These 5 Low-Leverage Stocks as S&P 500 Touches Record Mark

Jan -29

Source: zacks.com

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Nationally Recognized Plaintiffs' Law Firm Glancy Prongay & Murray LLP Announces Name Change To Glancy Prongay Wolke & Rotter LLP

Jan -28

Source: businesswire.com

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Here Are Tuesday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Affirm Holdings, Alcoa, Block, Coinbase Global,CoreWeave, Datadog, Intuitive Surgical, and More

Jan -27

Source: 247wallst.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.60%)

6. Segments

Aluminum

Expected Growth: 3.5%

Alcoa's 3.5% growth in aluminum is driven by increasing demand from the automotive and aerospace industries, as well as growing adoption of aluminum in packaging and construction. Additionally, Alcoa's cost-cutting initiatives and productivity improvements have enhanced its competitiveness, contributing to the growth.

Alumina

Expected Growth: 3.8%

Alcoa's alumina segment growth of 3.8% is driven by increasing demand from the automotive and aerospace industries, coupled with rising aluminum prices. Additionally, the company's cost-cutting initiatives and productivity improvements have enhanced operational efficiency, contributing to the segment's growth.

Other

Expected Growth: 4.2%

Alcoa's 4.2% growth in 'Other' segment is driven by increasing demand for its rolling mill and aluminum sheet products, particularly in the automotive and packaging industries. Additionally, the company's focus on cost reduction and operational efficiency initiatives has contributed to the growth.

7. Detailed Products

Bauxite

A type of sedimentary rock that is rich in aluminum-bearing minerals, used as the primary source of aluminum production.

Alumina

A type of oxide compound that is used as an intermediate product in the production of aluminum.

Primary Aluminum

A type of aluminum that is produced from alumina through an electrolysis process.

Rolled Products

A type of aluminum product that is rolled into sheets, plates, and other forms for use in various industries.

Engineered Products

A type of aluminum product that is engineered for specific applications, such as fasteners, forgings, and castings.

Forged Products

A type of aluminum product that is forged into specific shapes and forms for use in various industries.

8. Alcoa Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Alcoa Corporation faces moderate threat from substitutes due to the availability of alternative materials such as steel, titanium, and advanced composites in certain applications.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Alcoa Corporation's customers, primarily in the aerospace, automotive, and construction industries, have limited bargaining power due to the company's diversified customer base and lack of concentration.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Alcoa Corporation's suppliers, primarily in the mining and energy sectors, have moderate bargaining power due to the company's dependence on certain raw materials and energy sources.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants in the aluminum industry is low due to the high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements, regulatory hurdles, and the need for specialized expertise.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry in the aluminum industry is high due to the presence of several large players, including Rio Tinto, BHP, and Norsk Hydro, which leads to intense competition for market share and pricing power.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 29.87%
Debt Cost 4.46%
Equity Weight 70.13%
Equity Cost 16.23%
WACC 12.72%
Leverage 42.60%

11. Quality Control: Alcoa Corporation passed 1 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
WD-40

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 1.5

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 8.5

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Axalta Coating Systems

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 5.3

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 7.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Alcoa

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 2.6

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Albemarle

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 3.3

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Materion

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Avantor

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 3.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

59.16$

Current Price

59.16$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows