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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Brookdale Senior Living Inc.owns, manages, and operates senior living communities in the United States.It operates in three segments: Independent Living, Assisted Living and Memory Care, and Continuing Care Retirement Communities (CCRCs).


The Independent Living segment owns or leases communities comprising independent and assisted living units in a single community that are primarily designed for middle to upper income seniors.The Assisted Living and Memory Care segment owns or leases communities consisting of freestanding multi-story communities and freestanding single-story communities, which offer housing and 24-hour assistance with activities of daily living for the Company's residents.This segment also operates memory care communities for residents with Alzheimer's and other dementias.


The CCRCs segment owns or leases communities that provides various living arrangements, such as independent and assisted living, memory care, and skilled nursing; and services to accommodate various levels of physical ability and healthcare needs.It also manages communities on behalf of others.As of December 31, 2021, the company owned 347 communities, leased 299 communities, and managed 33 communities on behalf of others.


Brookdale Senior Living Inc.was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Brentwood, Tennessee.

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1.b. Last Insights on BKD

Recent positive drivers behind Brookdale Senior Living Inc.'s performance include improved weighted average occupancy rates, growing 10 bps sequentially in November. The company's Q4 results reflect escalating general and administrative costs, partly offset by improved occupancy rates. Brookdale also projects 2025 adjusted EBITDA within $430-$445 million. Additionally, the company has completed two strategic portfolio acquisitions, expanding its real estate footprint and increasing its ownership position. Wall Street analysts' average price target indicates a potential upside of 35.4%.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Brookdale Senior Living's 2025 Earnings: A Step in the Right Direction

Brookdale Senior Living Inc.'s financial performance in 2025 demonstrated a significant improvement, with resident fees increasing 2.4% to $3.0 billion, driven by a 5.7% increase in RevPAR. The company's adjusted EBITDA expanded by $72 million, a 19% increase over 2024, reaching $458 million. However, the actual EPS came out at '-0.17', slightly missing estimates at '-0.16'. The company's total liquidity was $378 million as of December 31, 2025, and adjusted annualized leverage was 8.9 times.

Publication Date: Mar -02

📋 Highlights
  • Occupancy growth:: Same community occupancy reached 83.7% (84.3% excluding sales), highest since Q1 2020, with 82.5-83.5% in Q4.
  • Adjusted EBITDA surge:: Rose 19% to $458 million in Q4, exceeding 2025 guidance, and full-year EBITDA grew $72 million (19%).
  • Leverage reduction progress:: Adjusted annualized leverage at 8.9x EBITDA, down from prior year, with target to under 6x by 2028.
  • 2026 guidance:: Projects 8-9% RevPAR growth and $502–$516 million adjusted EBITDA, driven by occupancy/pricing and disposition accretion.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was marked by a weighted average occupancy of 82.5-83.5% on a same community basis, its highest level since Q1 2020. The company closed the quarter with a consolidated occupancy of 83.7% or 84.3% on a same community basis. Brookdale Senior Living Inc. is transitioning to an operating company, with a dedicated COO and regional teams focused on driving performance and resident experience. The rollout of Health Plus in 58 communities in 2025 has been well-received, with a focus on driving revenue growth and improving resident outcomes.

Valuation and Leverage

With a P/S Ratio of 1.16 and an EV/EBITDA of 25.96, the market is pricing in a certain level of growth for Brookdale Senior Living Inc. The company's adjusted annualized leverage was 8.9 times adjusted EBITDA, a meaningful improvement from the prior year. The company aims to drive leverage to under six times by 2028. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio stands at 16.54, indicating a high level of indebtedness.

Guidance and Outlook

For 2026, Brookdale Senior Living Inc. is projecting RevPAR growth of 8% to 9% and mid-teens adjusted EBITDA growth to $502 to $516 million. The company expects to drive leverage below six times by 2028 and has refinanced all remaining 2026 mortgage debt maturities and a portion of 2027 mortgage debt maturities. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 3.1%, which is relatively conservative compared to the company's guidance.

Capital Expenditure and Investments

The company's CapEx spend implies around $3,500-$3,600 per unit on a net basis, which they consider a comfortable run rate. They're looking to reinvest in their communities and drive return and NOI growth. The company has seen a decrease in resident acuity, which has impacted RevPOR trending, but they've seen a benefit in terms of longer length of stay with residents.

3. NewsRoom

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Brookdale to Present at the Citi Global Property CEO Conference and the Barclays 28th Annual Global Healthcare Conference

Feb -26

Source: prnewswire.com

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Brookdale Stock Up 200%, but One Fund Dumped Its $6.5 Million Stake Last Quarter

Feb -25

Source: fool.com

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Buy 3 Momentum Anomaly Stocks as Volatility Hits Markets Hard

Feb -24

Source: zacks.com

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Wall Street Analysts Predict a 27.09% Upside in Brookdale (BKD): Here's What You Should Know

Feb -20

Source: zacks.com

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Brookdale Senior Living (NYSE:BKD) Shares Gap Down Following Weak Earnings

Feb -20

Source: defenseworld.net

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Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -19

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Brookdale (BKD) Upgraded to Strong Buy: Here's Why

Feb -19

Source: zacks.com

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Best Momentum Stocks to Buy for February 19th

Feb -19

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (6.51%)

6. Segments

Assisted Living and Memory Care

Expected Growth: 6.5%

Brookdale Senior Living Inc.'s Assisted Living and Memory Care segment growth of 6.5% is driven by increasing demand for senior housing, aging population, and rising prevalence of Alzheimer's and dementia. Additionally, Brookdale's strategic expansion into new markets, investments in technology, and focus on person-centered care are contributing to the segment's growth.

Independent Living

Expected Growth: 6.2%

Brookdale Senior Living Inc.'s Independent Living segment growth of 6.2% is driven by increasing demand for senior housing, aging population, and expanding private pay opportunities. Additionally, strategic partnerships, investments in technology, and enhanced resident experiences contribute to the segment's growth.

Continuing Care Retirement Communities

Expected Growth: 6.8%

Brookdale Senior Living Inc.'s Continuing Care Retirement Communities (CCRCs) growth of 6.8% is driven by increasing demand for senior housing, aging population, and need for care services. Additionally, Brookdale's diversified portfolio, strategic partnerships, and focus on person-centered care contribute to its growth. The company's ability to offer a range of services, from independent living to skilled nursing, also supports its growth in the CCRC segment.

Management Services

Expected Growth: 7.2%

Brookdale Senior Living Inc.'s 7.2% growth in Management Services is driven by increasing demand for senior living communities, strategic partnerships, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, the company's focus on operational efficiency, cost savings initiatives, and investments in technology have contributed to the growth.

7. Detailed Products

Independent Living

Residential living for active seniors who want to maintain their independence, with access to amenities and services.

Assisted Living

Supportive care for seniors who need assistance with daily living activities, such as bathing, dressing, and medication management.

Memory Care

Specialized care for seniors with Alzheimer's disease or other dementias, with a focus on safety, comfort, and engagement.

Skilled Nursing

Short-term rehabilitation and long-term care for seniors who require medical attention and therapy.

Home Health

In-home medical and non-medical care for seniors who prefer to receive care in the comfort of their own homes.

Outpatient Therapy

Physical, occupational, and speech therapy services for seniors who require rehabilitation.

Hospice Care

Compassionate care for seniors with terminal illnesses, focusing on comfort and quality of life.

8. Brookdale Senior Living Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Brookdale Senior Living Inc. faces moderate threat from substitutes as seniors have limited alternatives for senior living services. However, the company's focus on providing high-quality care and amenities helps to differentiate it from potential substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Brookdale Senior Living Inc. has a low bargaining power of customers due to the emotional and personal nature of senior living services. Seniors and their families often prioritize quality of care over cost, reducing their bargaining power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Brookdale Senior Living Inc. faces moderate bargaining power from suppliers, primarily due to the availability of alternative suppliers for food, medical supplies, and other essential services. However, the company's scale and reputation help to mitigate supplier power.

Threat Of New Entrants

Brookdale Senior Living Inc. faces a low threat from new entrants due to the high barriers to entry in the senior living industry, including regulatory hurdles, high capital expenditures, and the need for specialized expertise.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Brookdale Senior Living Inc. operates in a highly competitive senior living industry, with numerous established players and a growing demand for services. The company must continually innovate and improve its services to maintain its market position.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 92.13%
Debt Cost 4.68%
Equity Weight 7.87%
Equity Cost 10.54%
WACC 5.14%
Leverage 1170.69%

11. Quality Control: Brookdale Senior Living Inc. passed 0 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Healthcare Services Group

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 4.7

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Brookdale Senior Living

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 7.1

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 2.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.7

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Sonida Senior Living

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Value: 5.2

Growth: 2.7

Quality: 2.1

Yield: 0.0

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Volatility: 4.7

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AMN Healthcare Services

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 3.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 3.7

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AirSculpt Technologies

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Value: 8.5

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 2.9

Yield: 1.0

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The Joint

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 2.8

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 5.0

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

14.99$

Current Price

14.99$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows