Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Bumble Inc.provides online dating and social networking platforms in North America, Europe, internationally.It owns and operates websites and applications that offers subscription and in-app purchases dating products.


The company operates two apps, Bumble and Badoo with approximately 40 million users on monthly basis, as well as Fruitz, an online dating app.Bumble Inc.was founded in 2014 in and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on BMBL

Negative drivers include a consensus "Reduce" rating from 16 analysts, with 4 sell and 12 hold ratings, as reported by MarketBeat.com. Additionally, the company's valuation and earnings are under scrutiny, with some investors expressing concerns about its growth prospects. Furthermore, the recent sale of 211,761 shares by Squarepoint Ops LLC may have contributed to uncertainty, although this was offset by new investments from Counterpoint Mutual Funds LLC and Caxton Associates LLP.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Bumble's Quality-First Strategy Yields Mixed Results

Bumble's third-quarter revenue was $246 million, a 10% decline from a year ago, while adjusted EBITDA was $83 million, up 1%, representing a margin of 34%, up from 30% in the year-ago period. The company's earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.35, slightly below estimates of $0.38. Despite the revenue decline, Bumble's focus on quality over quantity has led to improving retention and average revenue per paying user (ARPPU).

Publication Date: Nov -29

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Decline:: Q3 revenue fell to $246 million (10% YoY decline), with Q4 guidance of $216–224 million (-14% to -17% YoY).
  • Adjusted EBITDA Growth:: Q3 adjusted EBITDA rose to $83 million (+1 YoY) with a margin of 34%, up from 30% in Q3 2024.
  • ARPPU & Retention Trends:: Short-term member registration drop offset by improving retention and rising average revenue per paying user (ARPPU).
  • TRA Liability Resolution:: $186 million spent to eliminate TRA obligations, simplifying capital structure and enhancing cash flow flexibility.
  • AI-Driven Product Roadmap:: AI-first cloud-native platform (launching mid-2026) aims to personalize experiences, boost safety, and accelerate feature development (hours vs. months).

Operational Highlights

Bumble's Beehive Fit framework is driving progress against its quality-first goals, with a focus on verified, thoughtful, and focused members. The company has introduced several updates, including a major update to Bumble Date focused on trust and safety, with features such as richer profiles and stronger verification. As Whitney Wolfe Herd, CEO, noted, "our goal is to become the most trusted, highest-quality women-first platform in the world."

Financial Outlook

Bumble expects total revenue in the range of $216 million to $224 million in the fourth quarter, representing a year-over-year decline of approximately 17% to 14%. The company believes that a better member experience will result in higher retention and drive members' perception of value, leading to increasing revenue. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $61 million to $65 million, representing a margin of approximately 28% to 29%.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/S Ratio of 0.38 and an EV/EBITDA of -3.78, the market appears to be pricing in significant challenges for Bumble. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -11.0%, indicating a continued decline. However, the company's focus on quality and its product road map, driven by customer pain points, may help drive a return to growth in the long term.

Strategic Initiatives

Bumble is exploring a stand-alone AI product that will provide a precise search experience in the dating industry, leveraging its data and expertise to provide a modern experience for its members. The company is also investing in customer service, which is expected to have a meaningful impact on its members' lives. With a Free Cash Flow Yield of 45.89%, Bumble has the financial flexibility to invest in its strategic priorities.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

Bumble: TRA Settlement And Upcoming Earnings Set The Stage For Upside

Feb -24

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

Counterpoint Mutual Funds LLC Makes New $3.10 Million Investment in Bumble Inc. $BMBL

Feb -24

Source: defenseworld.net

Card image cap

Bumble Went Public 5 Years Ago. If You'd Put in $1,000 Then, Here's How Much You'd Have Now.

Feb -10

Source: fool.com

Card image cap

Bumble Inc. (NASDAQ:BMBL) Given Average Rating of “Reduce” by Brokerages

Feb -08

Source: defenseworld.net

Card image cap

Bumble Inc. (BMBL) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Know

Feb -03

Source:

Card image cap

Fresh Step and Ariana Madix Help Singles "Date Cats, Not Humans" This Valentine's Day with First-Ever Bumble Cat Adoption Takeover

Feb -03

Source: prnewswire.com

Card image cap

Bumble, Match, Panera Bread and CrunchBase hit by cyberattacks, Bloomberg News reports

Jan -29

Source: reuters.com

Card image cap

Bumble Inc. (BMBL) Stock Slides as Market Rises: Facts to Know Before You Trade

Jan -28

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (9.61%)

6. Segments

Bumble App

Expected Growth: 10%

Bumble App's 10% growth driven by increasing online dating adoption, strong brand recognition, and user engagement. Key drivers include: 1) rising female empowerment, 2) growing demand for online relationships, 3) innovative features like BFF and Bizz, 4) expanding user base in international markets, and 5) effective marketing strategies.

Badoo App and Other

Expected Growth: 8%

Badoo App and Other from Bumble Inc. growth drivers: increasing online dating adoption, rising mobile usage, and growing demand for social entertainment. Strong brand recognition, user-friendly interface, and innovative features like location-based matching and live streaming contribute to the 8% growth. Additionally, strategic partnerships, effective marketing, and expanding into new markets fuel the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Bumble

A social networking app that allows users to connect with others based on location, interests, and preferences.

Bumble BFF

A feature within the Bumble app that allows users to find and connect with new friends.

Bumble Bizz

A feature within the Bumble app that allows users to network professionally and find career opportunities.

Hinge

A dating app that focuses on building meaningful connections between users.

8. Bumble Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bumble Inc. operates in a niche market with a unique value proposition, making it difficult for substitutes to emerge.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

While customers have some bargaining power due to the availability of alternative dating apps, Bumble's strong brand and unique features mitigate this power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Bumble Inc. does not rely heavily on suppliers, and its digital nature reduces the bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The online dating industry is highly competitive, and new entrants can easily enter the market, posing a significant threat to Bumble Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The online dating industry is highly competitive, with many established players, leading to intense rivalry among companies, including Bumble Inc.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 27.56%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 72.44%
Equity Cost 12.36%
WACC 10.04%
Leverage 38.05%

11. Quality Control: Bumble Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Olo

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 3.3

Growth: 8.2

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Matterport

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
PagerDuty

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 4.4

Growth: 7.8

Quality: 6.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Jamf

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Bumble

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 3.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
WM Technology

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 6.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

2.96$

Current Price

2.96$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows