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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Casella Waste Systems, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a vertically integrated solid waste services company in the northeastern United States.It offers resource management services primarily in the areas of solid waste collection and disposal, transfer, recycling, and organics services to residential, commercial, municipal, institutional, and industrial customers.The company provides a range of non-hazardous solid waste services, including collections, transfer stations, and disposal facilities.


It also markets recyclable metals, aluminum, plastics, and paper and corrugated cardboard that are processed at its facilities, as well as recyclables purchased from third parties.In addition, the company is involved in commodity brokerage operations.As of January 31, 2022, it owned and/or operated 50 solid waste collection operations, 65 transfer stations, 23 recycling facilities, 8 Subtitle D landfills, 3 landfill gas-to-energy facilities, and 1 landfill permitted to accept construction and demolition materials.


Casella Waste Systems, Inc.was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Rutland, Vermont.

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1.b. Last Insights on CWST

Casella Waste Systems' recent performance faced negative drivers, primarily due to rising costs exerting pressure on net income. Despite projecting 17.5% revenue growth for fiscal 2025, driven by acquisitions and price increases, the company's net income margin was affected. However, Casella's Q3 earnings beat estimates, with quarterly earnings of $0.42 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.34 per share. Analysts have a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating on the stock, with six assigning a buy rating. Envestnet Portfolio Solutions Inc. also increased its holdings in Casella by 8.2%.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Casella Waste Systems' Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Casella Waste Systems reported a robust third quarter 2025, with revenue reaching $485.4 million, a 17.9% year-over-year increase, driven by solid waste pricing strength, healthy landfill volumes, and meaningful contributions from their acquisition program. Adjusted EBITDA was $119.9 million, up 16.4% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 24.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.42, beating estimates of $0.3335. The company's strong financial performance was supported by a 4.6% pricing growth and an 11.7% increase in landfill volumes.

Publication Date: Nov -03

📋 Highlights
  • Record Revenue & EBITDA:: Q3 revenue reached $485M (+17.9 YoY), adjusted EBITDA hit $120M (+16.4 YoY), driven by pricing, landfill volumes, and acquisitions.
  • Strong Free Cash Flow Growth:: Adjusted free cash flow totaled $119M YTD (+21% YoY), boosted by EBITDA growth and working capital improvements.
  • Acquisition-Driven Expansion:: Eight acquisitions added $105M in annualized revenue; pending Mountain State Waste deal to add $30M upon 2025 closure.
  • Mid-Atlantic Margin Turnaround:: Segment shifted from 100bps YoY headwind to 10bps headwind in Q3, expected to become a tailwind in 2026 via system consolidation.
  • 2026 Guidance Confirmed:: Organic growth of 4–5% and EBITDA growth of 9–10% projected, fueled by pricing, $60M rollover acquisition revenue, and cost savings.

Operational Highlights

The company's solid waste collection and disposal operations continued to perform well, driven by pricing growth and higher landfill volumes. The integration of the Mid-Atlantic businesses is progressing well, with systems conversions and fleet optimization initiatives positioning the segment for further gains in Q4 and into 2026. The Resource Solutions segment also performed well, effectively managing commodity price headwinds.

Acquisition Program and Growth Outlook

Casella Waste Systems' acquisition program remains a powerful engine of growth, with eight acquisitions closed year-to-date, representing $105 million in annualized revenues. The pending acquisition of Mountain State Waste is expected to close at the end of 2025, adding another $30 million of annualized revenues. The company expects overall organic growth in the range of 4% to 5% in 2026, driven by solid waste pricing and rollover acquisition growth.

Valuation and Future Prospects

With a P/E Ratio of 368.32 and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 14.77, the market is pricing in significant growth expectations for Casella Waste Systems. The company's strong financial performance, driven by its solid waste operations and acquisition program, positions it well for future growth. Analysts estimate revenue growth of 7.4% next year, and the company's guidance implies sustained pricing strength and cost savings initiatives. As the company continues to integrate its acquisitions and drive operational efficiencies, it is well-positioned to deliver long-term value to shareholders.

Margin Expansion Opportunities

According to Brad Helgeson, "We don't see anything that will challenge our margin expectations over time. With our collection business averaging a 20% EBITDA margin and Casella's at 30%, we see significant multiyear margin expansion opportunities." The company's focus on integrating its acquisitions and driving operational efficiencies is expected to drive margin expansion in the coming years.

3. NewsRoom

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Edgestream Partners L.P. Acquires 11,996 Shares of Casella Waste Systems, Inc. $CWST

Dec -04

Source: defenseworld.net

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Bank of Montreal Can Raises Stock Position in Casella Waste Systems, Inc. $CWST

Nov -16

Source: defenseworld.net

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Wasatch Ultra Growth Fund Q3 2025 Top Contributors And Detractors

Nov -12

Source: seekingalpha.com

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The London Company SMID Cap Vs. Russell 2500 Q3 2025 Top Contributors And Detractors

Nov -05

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Casella Waste Systems, Inc. to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences

Nov -04

Source: globenewswire.com

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Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Oct -31

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Casella (CWST) Tops Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Oct -30

Source: zacks.com

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Casella Waste Systems: Time To Turn Trash Into Profits

Oct -28

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (6.73%)

6. Segments

Western

Expected Growth: 6.5%

Casella Waste Systems' Western segment growth of 6.5% is driven by increasing municipal solid waste volumes, rising recycling commodity prices, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the region's growing population, urbanization, and environmental concerns contribute to the demand for waste management services, further boosting growth.

Eastern

Expected Growth: 6.8%

Casella Waste Systems' Eastern segment growth of 6.8% is driven by increasing municipal solid waste volumes, rising recycling commodity prices, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the region's growing population, urbanization, and environmental concerns contribute to increased demand for waste management services, further boosting growth.

Resource Solutions

Expected Growth: 7.2%

Casella Waste Systems' Resource Solutions segment growth of 7.2% is driven by increasing adoption of sustainable waste management practices, rising demand for recycling services, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on organic growth initiatives, such as expanding its customer base and increasing pricing, contributes to the segment's growth.

Mid-Atlantic

Expected Growth: 6.2%

The Mid-Atlantic segment of Casella Waste Systems, Inc. achieved 6.2% growth driven by increasing municipal solid waste volumes, rising recycling commodity prices, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the region's growing population, urbanization, and infrastructure development contributed to the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Solid Waste Collection

Casella Waste Systems, Inc. provides solid waste collection services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers.

Recycling Services

Casella offers recycling services to help customers reduce waste and conserve natural resources.

Organics Services

Casella provides organics services, including food waste and yard trimmings collection, to help customers reduce waste and create nutrient-rich compost.

Landfill Operations

Casella owns and operates landfills that safely and efficiently manage waste disposal.

Transfer Stations

Casella operates transfer stations that facilitate the efficient transfer of waste from collection vehicles to long-haul trucks for transport to landfills or recycling facilities.

Environmental Services

Casella offers environmental services, including remediation, demolition, and emergency response, to help customers manage environmental risks.

8. Casella Waste Systems, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Casella Waste Systems, Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative waste management services and recycling options.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Casella Waste Systems, Inc. is low due to the lack of negotiating power of individual customers and the company's diversified customer base.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Casella Waste Systems, Inc. is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers and the company's ability to negotiate prices.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Casella Waste Systems, Inc. is low due to the high barriers to entry, including regulatory hurdles and significant capital requirements.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Casella Waste Systems, Inc. is high due to the competitive nature of the waste management industry and the presence of several large competitors.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 49.76%
Debt Cost 5.46%
Equity Weight 50.24%
Equity Cost 8.54%
WACC 7.01%
Leverage 99.03%

11. Quality Control: Casella Waste Systems, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Booz Allen Hamilton

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 5.2

Growth: 7.7

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Clean Harbors

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 3.8

Growth: 7.6

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Atkore

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 8.0

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Casella Waste Systems

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 1.8

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
CBIZ

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 3.2

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 5.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Stericycle

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 2.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

94.57$

Current Price

94.57$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows