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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Casella Waste Systems, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a vertically integrated solid waste services company in the northeastern United States.It offers resource management services primarily in the areas of solid waste collection and disposal, transfer, recycling, and organics services to residential, commercial, municipal, institutional, and industrial customers.The company provides a range of non-hazardous solid waste services, including collections, transfer stations, and disposal facilities.


It also markets recyclable metals, aluminum, plastics, and paper and corrugated cardboard that are processed at its facilities, as well as recyclables purchased from third parties.In addition, the company is involved in commodity brokerage operations.As of January 31, 2022, it owned and/or operated 50 solid waste collection operations, 65 transfer stations, 23 recycling facilities, 8 Subtitle D landfills, 3 landfill gas-to-energy facilities, and 1 landfill permitted to accept construction and demolition materials.


Casella Waste Systems, Inc.was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Rutland, Vermont.

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1.b. Last Insights on CWST

Casella Waste Systems' recent performance was negatively impacted by decreasing institutional investor confidence. Granite Investment Partners LLC reduced its stake by 9.5%, selling 17,310 shares. Although the company's Q4 earnings beat estimates, with EPS of $0.3 per share, it was lower than the $0.41 per share from the previous year. The company's guidance for Fiscal Year 2026 may also be a concern for investors. Additionally, industry woes and competition may affect the company's growth, despite its strong position in the waste removal services sector.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Casella Waste Systems' Strong Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results

Casella Waste Systems reported a robust fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results, with revenue increasing 18% to $1.83 billion and adjusted EBITDA rising 17% to $423 million. The company's earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.3, beating analyst estimates of $0.22. The solid waste collection and disposal operations revenue grew 20.3%, driven by disciplined organic growth and acquisitions. The company's resource solutions segment also delivered a strong year, with revenues up 9.1% and segment adjusted EBITDA increasing 9.6%.

Publication Date: Feb -24

📋 Highlights
  • New Leadership & Strategic Vision: Ned Coletta, the new CEO, emphasized growth confidence, team capabilities, and long-term value creation, with plans to leverage the integrated Casella Lead to Cash System for pricing and operational efficiency.
  • Strong 2025 Financial Performance: Revenue rose 18% ($1.97–$1.99B guidance for 2026), Adjusted EBITDA increased 17% ($455–$465M guidance), and adjusted free cash flow grew 14%, driven by disciplined organic growth and 9 acquisitions over $115M in annualized revenue.
  • Mid-Atlantic Integration Progress: System conversion for 2026 is 90% complete, unlocking $5M in synergies by Q2 2026, with improved customer profitability analysis and route optimization expected post-integration.
  • Resource Solutions Growth: The segment saw 9.1% revenue growth and 9.6% EBITDA growth, supported by national account expansion and operational upgrades (e.g., Willimantic Recycling Facility), despite 20% lower recycled commodity prices.
  • Landfill Strategy & Cost Improvements: Ontario landfill closure (850K tons/year) is offset by Hyland landfill expansion, with G&A costs targeting industry average 10% through tech upgrades and process automation, incurring transitional costs until 2028.

Operational Highlights

The company completed 9 acquisitions in 2025, representing over $115 million in annualized revenues, and started 2026 strong with the Mountain State Waste acquisition. The team advanced key acquisition, integration, and system conversion initiatives in the Mid-Atlantic region, with substantially completed migration of customers to the integrated Casella Lead to Cash System. As Ned Coletta mentioned, "We're a touch conservative" regarding the $5 million of synergies baked into the guide, as they've completed almost all of the systems integration work.

Guidance and Outlook

The company provided 2026 guidance, expecting revenue to grow 8% to $1.97 billion-$1.99 billion and adjusted EBITDA to increase 9% to $455 million-$465 million. Casella Waste Systems expects to continue being acquisitive this year, with a stable economic environment for the balance of the year. The company's pipeline is strong, with several high-quality companies in the advanced stage, and they are looking at opportunities in both the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions.

Valuation

With a P/E Ratio of 747.88, the stock appears to be richly valued. However, considering the company's growth prospects and the fact that it trades at a P/S Ratio of 3.15, which is reasonable for a company with a strong track record of acquisitions and organic growth, the valuation is not entirely unjustified. The EV/EBITDA ratio of 17.0 also suggests that the company's valuation is in line with its earnings growth prospects.

3. NewsRoom

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Casella Waste Stock Down Nearly 20%, but One Fund Just Bought Up $9 Million in Shares

Mar -05

Source: fool.com

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Casella Waste Systems: Rating Upgrade As The Next Leg Of Adj. EBITDA Growth Becomes Visible

Mar -04

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Casella Waste Systems, Inc. Announces Additional Information Regarding Presentations at Upcoming Investor Conferences

Mar -02

Source: globenewswire.com

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Casella Waste Systems, Inc. to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences

Feb -23

Source: globenewswire.com

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Granite Investment Partners LLC Decreases Stock Holdings in Casella Waste Systems, Inc. $CWST

Feb -23

Source: defenseworld.net

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Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -20

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Casella (CWST) Q4 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates

Feb -19

Source: zacks.com

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Casella Waste Systems, Inc. Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Results and Provides Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance

Feb -19

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (6.73%)

6. Segments

Western

Expected Growth: 6.5%

Casella Waste Systems' Western segment growth of 6.5% is driven by increasing municipal solid waste volumes, rising recycling commodity prices, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the region's growing population, urbanization, and environmental concerns contribute to the demand for waste management services, further boosting growth.

Eastern

Expected Growth: 6.8%

Casella Waste Systems' Eastern segment growth of 6.8% is driven by increasing municipal solid waste volumes, rising recycling commodity prices, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the region's growing population, urbanization, and environmental concerns contribute to increased demand for waste management services, further boosting growth.

Resource Solutions

Expected Growth: 7.2%

Casella Waste Systems' Resource Solutions segment growth of 7.2% is driven by increasing adoption of sustainable waste management practices, rising demand for recycling services, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on organic growth initiatives, such as expanding its customer base and increasing pricing, contributes to the segment's growth.

Mid-Atlantic

Expected Growth: 6.2%

The Mid-Atlantic segment of Casella Waste Systems, Inc. achieved 6.2% growth driven by increasing municipal solid waste volumes, rising recycling commodity prices, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the region's growing population, urbanization, and infrastructure development contributed to the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Solid Waste Collection

Casella Waste Systems, Inc. provides solid waste collection services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers.

Recycling Services

Casella offers recycling services to help customers reduce waste and conserve natural resources.

Organics Services

Casella provides organics services, including food waste and yard trimmings collection, to help customers reduce waste and create nutrient-rich compost.

Landfill Operations

Casella owns and operates landfills that safely and efficiently manage waste disposal.

Transfer Stations

Casella operates transfer stations that facilitate the efficient transfer of waste from collection vehicles to long-haul trucks for transport to landfills or recycling facilities.

Environmental Services

Casella offers environmental services, including remediation, demolition, and emergency response, to help customers manage environmental risks.

8. Casella Waste Systems, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Casella Waste Systems, Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative waste management services and recycling options.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Casella Waste Systems, Inc. is low due to the lack of negotiating power of individual customers and the company's diversified customer base.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Casella Waste Systems, Inc. is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers and the company's ability to negotiate prices.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Casella Waste Systems, Inc. is low due to the high barriers to entry, including regulatory hurdles and significant capital requirements.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Casella Waste Systems, Inc. is high due to the competitive nature of the waste management industry and the presence of several large competitors.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 49.76%
Debt Cost 5.46%
Equity Weight 50.24%
Equity Cost 8.54%
WACC 7.01%
Leverage 99.03%

11. Quality Control: Casella Waste Systems, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Booz Allen Hamilton

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 5.5

Growth: 7.7

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Clean Harbors

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 3.0

Growth: 7.6

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Casella Waste Systems

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Atkore

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
CBIZ

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 4.9

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Stericycle

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 3.3

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 2.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

95.75$

Current Price

95.75$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows