Co-Diagnostics, Inc. (CODX) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Co-Diagnostics, Inc., a molecular diagnostics company, develops, manufactures, and sells reagents used for diagnostic tests that function through the detection and/or analysis of nucleic acid molecules in the United States and internationally.It offers polymerase chain reaction (PCR) diagnostic tests for COVID-19, tuberculosis, hepatitis B and C, human papilloma virus, malaria, chikungunya, dengue, and the zika virus; three multiplexed tests to test mosquitos for the identification of diseases carried by the mosquitos; and molecular tools for detection of infectious diseases, liquid biopsy for cancer screening, and agricultural applications.The company also provides tests that identify genetic traits in plant and animal genomes; and portable PCR device designed to bring PCR to patients in point-of-care and at-home settings.

In addition, it intends to sell diagnostic equipment from other manufacturers as self-contained lab systems.The company was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on CODX

The recent 3-month performance of Co-Diagnostics, Inc. was negatively impacted by a Q1 loss and revenue miss. The company reported a quarterly loss of $0.24 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.33. This compares to a loss of $0.31 per share in the same period last year. The revenue miss was a significant setback, as the company's revenue fell short of expectations.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	1.9
Change Percentage	-24.90%
Open	2.54
Previous Close	2.53
Market Cap ( Millions)	2
Volume	1267375
Year High	46.5
Year Low	1.35
M A 50	1.96
M A 200	6.9

FCF Yield	-1406.83%
Dividend Yield	0.00%
ROE	-125.46%
Debt / Equity	5.99%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	35.29%
Price To Book	0.12
Price Earnings Ratio	-0.05
Price To FCF	-0.07
Price To sales	3.41
EV / EBITDA	0.28

2. Co‑Diagnostics’ 2025: Shrinking Revenues, Expanding Horizons

Co‑Diagnostics reported a steep 84% drop in total revenue to $0.6 million, down from $3.9 million in 2024, largely due to a decline in grant income. Product revenue fell to $0.4 million, half of last year’s $0.8 million. Operating expenses surged to $50.6 million, with a $18.9 million non‑cash impairment, driving a net loss of $46.9 million or $35.25 per share, versus a $37.6 million loss in 2024. Adjusted EBITDA worsened to a $28.0 million loss from $33.5 million, underscoring margin compression (Dwight Egan). The company’s valuation reflects this distress, with a P/E of -0.04, P/S of 4.16, and EV/EBITDA at 0.30, while free cash flow yield remains negative at -1713.45%.

Publication Date: Apr -20

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Revenue Decline::
                                                Total revenue dropped to $0.6 million in 2025 from $3.9 million in 2024, driven by lower grant revenue.
Operating Expenses Surge::
                                                Operating expenses reached $50.6 million, including a $18.9 million non-cash impairment charge.
Net Loss Widens::
                                                Net loss increased to $46.9 million ($35.25/share) in 2025, up from $37.6 million in 2024.
South Asia Expansion::
                                                CoSara expanded into Nepal, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, boosting the addressable market to $13 billion.
India TB Test Timeline::
                                                Commercialization of the TB test in India is expected by Q3 2026 after CDSCO regulatory approval.

                                

Growth Strategy

Despite revenue contraction, Co‑Diagnostics is aggressively scaling its commercial footprint through CoSara in India and the CoMira joint venture in Saudi Arabia. CoSara now serves hundreds of laboratory customers and holds 15 PCR tests cleared by Indian regulators. The company secured a CDSCO license to manufacture the PCR Pro instrument locally, and a technology transfer operation is underway, positioning the firm to launch the TB test by Q3 2026 and expand into Nepal, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, raising the addressable market from $11 billion to $13 billion.

Clinical Pipeline

The upper‑respiratory multiplex platform is advancing with robust clinical studies targeting influenza A, B, and RSV, with COVID‑19 flexibility retained. TB and HPV programs remain priority, especially in India where TB prevalence is high. Recent patent grants in Australia and Japan strengthen the intellectual property base, supporting the pipeline’s commercial viability.

Regulatory Milestones

Co‑Diagnostics is preparing FDA studies, collecting over 1,200 patient samples to satisfy regulatory requirements. The company’s CDSCO clearance for the PCR Pro device paves the way for India’s TB test commercialization. FDA negotiations are expected to define sample and demographic criteria, but management deems reengineering unnecessary.

Liquidity & Financing

Ending 2025 with $11.9 million in cash and equivalents, the firm maintains a cautious liquidity stance while pursuing strategic financing options—equity, debt, or partnerships—to fuel commercialization and pipeline development. Net debt to EBITDA stands at 0.35, indicating manageable leverage amid ongoing cost discipline.

Valuation Snapshot

With a P/B ratio of 0.10 and a P/S of 4.16, Co‑Diagnostics trades at a steep discount to peers, reflecting investor concerns over current earnings. However, the company’s expansion into high‑growth markets and a strengthening pipeline may justify a turnaround narrative, especially if commercialization timelines accelerate and revenue diversification improves.

3. NewsRoom

Co-Diagnostics Joint Venture CoMira Finalizes Lease Agreement for Manufacturing Facility in Saudi Arabia's Sudair Industrial City

May -08

Source: prnewswire.com

Co-Diagnostics Announces First Quarter 2026 Earnings Release Date and Webcast

Apr -30

Source: prnewswire.com

Co-Diagnostics Invited to Present at Stop TB Partnership Summit in Washington, D.C.

Apr -16

Source: prnewswire.com

Co-Diagnostics to Showcase Co-Dx PCR Platform and CE-IVD Solutions at ESCMID 2026 in Munich, Germany

Apr -14

Source: prnewswire.com

Co-Diagnostics Executives to Participate in European Trade Mission with Utah Governor and WTC Utah

Apr -09

Source: prnewswire.com

Co-Diagnostics, Inc. (CODX) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Apr -01

Source: seekingalpha.com

Co-Diagnostics Reports Full Year 2025 Financial Results

Mar -31

Source: prnewswire.com

Co-Diagnostics Ships Diagnostic Materials to India for Initiation of Tuberculosis Clinical Studies Following Recently Issued Guidance from the World Health Organization

Mar -25

Source: prnewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.95%)

6. Segments

Diagnostics Technologies

Expected Growth: 10.95%

Co-Diagnostics' Diagnostics Technologies segment growth is driven by increasing demand for molecular diagnostics, strategic partnerships, and expansion into new markets. The company's proprietary CoPrimer platform enables high-quality, low-cost diagnostics, fueling growth. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated adoption of molecular diagnostics, further boosting segment growth.

7. Detailed Products

CoPrimer

A proprietary primer design technology that increases the sensitivity and specificity of PCR-based assays

Logix Smart COVID-19 Detection Kit

A real-time RT-PCR test kit for the detection of SARS-CoV-2

Logix Smart Influenza A/B Assay

A multiplex real-time RT-PCR test kit for the detection and differentiation of influenza A and B viruses

CoDx Box

A portable, handheld PCR device for point-of-care molecular diagnostics

CoPrimers

A line of proprietary PCR primers designed for use in molecular diagnostics

8. Co-Diagnostics, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Co-Diagnostics, Inc. has a low threat of substitutes due to its unique molecular diagnostics technology and proprietary CoPrimer platform, making it difficult for competitors to replicate.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Co-Diagnostics, Inc. has a medium bargaining power of customers due to the presence of a few large customers, but the company's diversified customer base and proprietary technology mitigate this risk.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Co-Diagnostics, Inc. has a low bargaining power of suppliers due to its ability to source raw materials and components from multiple suppliers, reducing dependence on any one supplier.

Threat Of New Entrants

Co-Diagnostics, Inc. faces a high threat of new entrants due to the growing demand for molecular diagnostics and the potential for new companies to enter the market with innovative technologies.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Co-Diagnostics, Inc. operates in a moderately competitive industry, with several established players, but the company's proprietary technology and strong intellectual property portfolio help to differentiate it from competitors.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	3.36%
Debt Cost	3.95%
Equity Weight	96.64%
Equity Cost	0.67%
WACC	0.78%
Leverage	3.48%

11. Quality Control: Co-Diagnostics, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

908 Devices

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 7.9

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Silk Road Medical

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Avanos Medical

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 9.1

Growth: 2.3

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Cerus

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 5.2

Growth: 6.8

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

TELA Bio

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Co-Diagnostics

A-Score: 2.5/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 2.4

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

9.43%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

0.78%

Co-Diagnostics, Inc. - US1897631057

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on CODX

1.c. Company Highlights

Average Quality

Fairly Valued

Average Growth

Earnings Miss

Revenues Miss

Medium Volatility

Earnings Beats

Revenues Beats

Lower Growth

Stable Momentum

Weak Momentum

More Volatile

2. Co‑Diagnostics’ 2025: Shrinking Revenues, Expanding Horizons

Growth Strategy

Clinical Pipeline

Regulatory Milestones

Liquidity & Financing

Valuation Snapshot

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.95%)

6. Segments

Diagnostics Technologies

Expected Growth: 10.95%

7. Detailed Products

CoPrimer

Logix Smart COVID-19 Detection Kit

Logix Smart Influenza A/B Assay

CoDx Box

CoPrimers

8. Co-Diagnostics, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Co-Diagnostics, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

1.9$

Current Price

1.9$

Potential

0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA