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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.develops and operates the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept in the United States.The company's Cracker Barrel stores consist of a restaurant with a gift shop.


Its restaurants serve breakfast, lunch, and dinner, as well as dine-in, pick-up, and delivery services.The company's gift shops comprise various decorative and functional items, such as rocking chairs, seasonal gifts, apparel, toys, cookware, and various other gift items, as well as various candies, preserves, and other food items.As of September 15, 2021, it operated 664 Cracker Barrel stores in 45 states.


The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Lebanon, Tennessee.

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1.b. Last Insights on CBRL

Cracker Barrel's recent performance was negatively impacted by disappointing Q1 results, with revenue declining 6% and adjusted EPS of -$0.74. Execution missteps, including food quality inconsistencies and rebranding-driven marketing spend, drove underperformance and margin pressure. The company's rebranding efforts have been met with criticism, contributing to a decline in investor confidence. Analysts have a consensus "Reduce" rating on the stock, with four assigning a sell rating and six a hold rating. Additionally, major shareholder GMT Capital Corp sold 42,400 shares, potentially signaling a lack of confidence.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Cracker Barrel's Turnaround Efforts Underway Amidst Challenging Q1 Performance

Cracker Barrel reported a challenging first quarter of fiscal 2026, with total revenue declining 5.7% to $797.2 million, driven by a 4.7% decrease in comparable store restaurant sales. The company's adjusted EBITDA was $7.2 million, or 0.9% of total revenue, significantly lower than the $45.8 million, or 5.4% of total revenue, in the prior year. The adjusted earnings per diluted share were negative $0.74, beating estimates of negative $0.78. The decline in sales was attributed to a difficult macro and industry backdrop, with traffic declining 7.3% and pricing only partially offsetting the decline at 4.1%.

Publication Date: Dec -20

📋 Highlights
  • Q1 Revenue Decline:: Total revenue dropped 5.7% to $797.2M, with restaurant revenue down 4.8% and retail revenue down 9.4%.
  • Adjusted EBITDA Drop:: Adjusted EBITDA fell to $7.2M (0.9% of revenue) from $45.8M (5.4% of revenue) in Q1 2025.
  • Comparable Store Traffic Decline:: Restaurant traffic fell 7.3%, retail traffic dropped 8.5%, driven by lower attachment rates and mix shifts.
  • Cost-Savings Initiatives:: Restructuring to save $20–$25M annually in G&A expenses, including corporate support center optimization.
  • Fiscal 2026 Guidance:: Revenue projected at $3.2–$3.3B, adjusted EBITDA of $70–$110M, reflecting slower recovery and elevated discounts.

Operational Challenges and Initiatives

The company faced operational challenges, including higher waste related to product and process changes, increased discounts, and commodity inflation, which impacted quarterly expenses. To address these issues, Cracker Barrel is taking decisive actions, including optimizing back-of-house initiatives, retraining staff on core recipes, and making key leadership changes. The company is also focusing on reconnecting with guests through menu changes, messaging, and loyalty programs, such as reinstating beloved dishes and introducing new breakfast burgers. As Julie Masino stated, "We're working to rebuild trust one guest at a time, which will take time."

Financial Position and Outlook

Despite the challenging quarter, Cracker Barrel maintains a strong balance sheet with $550.3 million in debt and $485 million in total available liquidity. The company has guided for total revenue of $3.2 billion to $3.3 billion for fiscal 2026, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $70 million and $110 million. The company's outlook reflects a slower recovery than previously expected, with a focus on cost savings and restructuring efforts to drive improved performance.

Valuation and Metrics

With a P/S Ratio of 0.17 and an EV/EBITDA of 15.73, the market appears to be pricing in a significant recovery in sales and profitability. The company's Dividend Yield of 3.82% provides some support to the stock. However, the Net Debt / EBITDA ratio of 10.77 indicates a high level of debt relative to earnings, which may be a concern for investors. As the company works to regain momentum, its ability to execute on its turnaround efforts will be closely watched.

3. NewsRoom

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Cracker Barrel Welcomes Spring with New Dishes and the Return of Classic Comforts

Feb -10

Source: prnewswire.com

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Cracker Barrel's new dining rule is not actually new, it says

Feb -03

Source: fastcompany.com

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Cracker Barrel Opens Newest Location in Annapolis, MD

Feb -02

Source: prnewswire.com

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Cracker Barrel Joins America250 to Celebrate 250 Years of The Traditions, Stories and Comfort Food That Bring Americans Together

Jan -30

Source: prnewswire.com

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Cracker Barrel Wants Its Staff to Eat One Thing on Work Trips: Cracker Barrel

Jan -30

Source: wsj.com

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Head-To-Head Comparison: Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (NASDAQ:CBRL) and Domino’s Pizza (NASDAQ:DPZ)

Jan -29

Source: defenseworld.net

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63,000 Shares in Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. $CBRL Purchased by Hussman Strategic Advisors Inc.

Jan -28

Source: defenseworld.net

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Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (NASDAQ:CBRL) Receives Consensus Recommendation of “Reduce” from Analysts

Jan -19

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.12%)

6. Segments

Restaurant

Expected Growth: 1.2%

Cracker Barrel's 1.2% growth is driven by increasing off-premise sales, menu innovation, and effective marketing strategies. Additionally, the company's focus on convenience, including curbside pickup and delivery, has contributed to the growth. Furthermore, Cracker Barrel's strong brand reputation and loyal customer base have also supported the segment's growth.

Retail

Expected Growth: 0.8%

Cracker Barrel's retail segment growth of 0.8% is driven by increased sales of nostalgic and unique items, strategic pricing, and effective inventory management. Additionally, the company's focus on e-commerce and omnichannel experiences has contributed to the growth. Furthermore, the brand's strong marketing efforts and loyalty programs have helped to attract and retain customers, resulting in a steady increase in retail sales.

7. Detailed Products

Homestyle Cooking

Cracker Barrel's restaurants serve classic American comfort food, including breakfast items, sandwiches, salads, and entrees

Retail Goods

Cracker Barrel's retail stores offer a wide range of products, including clothing, accessories, home decor, and souvenirs

Bakery and Coffee

Cracker Barrel's in-store bakeries offer freshly baked goods, including pies, cakes, and cookies, as well as specialty coffee drinks

Gift Cards

Cracker Barrel offers gift cards that can be used in-store or online

Catering Services

Cracker Barrel offers catering services for events and gatherings

Online Shopping

Cracker Barrel's e-commerce platform allows customers to shop online for retail goods and have them shipped directly to their doorstep

8. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Cracker Barrel's menu items and retail products are moderately substitutable with those of its competitors. While customers may find similar products elsewhere, Cracker Barrel's unique blend of Southern-style cooking and rustic, country-themed retail offerings helps to differentiate it from competitors.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Cracker Barrel's customers have relatively low bargaining power due to the company's strong brand recognition and loyal customer base. Additionally, the company's unique retail offerings and restaurant menu items make it difficult for customers to find suitable alternatives.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Cracker Barrel's suppliers have relatively low bargaining power due to the company's large scale and diversified supply chain. The company's ability to negotiate prices and terms with suppliers helps to mitigate supplier power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants in the casual dining and retail industries is relatively low due to the high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and the need for a strong brand presence. Cracker Barrel's established brand and loyal customer base also make it difficult for new entrants to gain traction.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry in the casual dining and retail industries is high, with many established competitors vying for market share. Cracker Barrel faces intense competition from other casual dining chains and retailers, which can lead to pricing pressure and advertising wars.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 70.63%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 29.37%
Equity Cost 11.33%
WACC 6.11%
Leverage 240.53%

11. Quality Control: Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Flanigan's

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 9.0

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
RAVE

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 5.1

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 8.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Cannae Holdings

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 8.8

Growth: 1.7

Quality: 3.7

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Biglari

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 3.7

Growth: 2.3

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Cracker Barrel

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 1.9

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Ark Restaurants

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 2.3

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

32.55$

Current Price

32.55$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows