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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.develops and operates the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept in the United States.The company's Cracker Barrel stores consist of a restaurant with a gift shop.


Its restaurants serve breakfast, lunch, and dinner, as well as dine-in, pick-up, and delivery services.The company's gift shops comprise various decorative and functional items, such as rocking chairs, seasonal gifts, apparel, toys, cookware, and various other gift items, as well as various candies, preserves, and other food items.As of September 15, 2021, it operated 664 Cracker Barrel stores in 45 states.


The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Lebanon, Tennessee.

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1.b. Last Insights on CBRL

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store's recent performance was driven by strong Q2 earnings, beating estimates despite declining revenue and comparable sales. The company's turnaround initiatives, including loyalty program growth, menu enhancements, and value pricing, are showing early signs of success. Additionally, the company's efforts to cut costs and improve operational efficiency are helping to mitigate margin pressure. Furthermore, the recent investment by Aster Capital Management DIFC Ltd and Caxton Associates LLP in the company's shares indicates growing confidence in Cracker Barrel's future prospects.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Cracker Barrel's Q2 FY2026 Earnings: A Gradual Turnaround

Cracker Barrel reported total sales of $874.8 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $38.2 million, or 4.4% of total revenue, in Q2 FY2026. The company's EPS came in at $0.25, beating estimates of -$0.1. Revenue was down 7.9% year-over-year, with restaurant revenue decreasing 7.5% to $694.3 million. The decline was largely driven by a 10.1% traffic decline, partially offset by a 3.4% increase in average check. The company's retail sales also declined, down 9.3% to $180.5 million.

Publication Date: Mar -08

📋 Highlights
  • Total Revenue & Adjusted EBITDA:: Q2 revenue $874.8M (-7.9% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $38.2M (4.4% of revenue vs. 7.9% in prior year).
  • Guest Satisfaction Improvements:: Google Star rating hit 4.28, highest since Q2 FY20, with positive trends in food taste, service, and value scores.
  • Menu & Value Strategy:: Reintroduced favorites (e.g., Country Fried Turkey) and launched meals for 2 starting at $19.99, driving guest preference lifts.
  • Loyalty Program Impact:: Cracker Barrel Rewards members (11M) contributed 40% of tracked sales, enhancing engagement through targeted marketing.
  • Full-Year Outlook:: Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $85–100M, with cost savings ($20–25M annualized) and lower capex ($105–115M) to support profitability.

Operational Improvements

Despite the decline in sales, Cracker Barrel is making progress on its operations, with improvements in food taste, service, and value scores. The company's Google star rating was 4.28 in Q2, the highest quarterly score since Q2 FY2020. The company is also seeing positive trends in its menu strategy, with the reintroduction of guest favorites and the launch of new items like the breakfast burger. According to the company, "we've seen a meaningful lift in guest preference since launching meals for 2 starting at $19.99."

Outlook and Guidance

Cracker Barrel expects total revenue of $3.24 billion to $3.27 billion for FY2026, with pricing of approximately 4% and lower menu mix resulting from higher discounts. The company anticipates commodity inflation of 2% to 2.5% and hourly inflation of 2.5% to 3%. Cracker Barrel has implemented cost savings measures, including a corporate restructuring that will result in annualized G&A savings of $20 million to $25 million. The company now expects full-year adjusted EBITDA of approximately $85 million to $100 million.

Valuation

With a P/S Ratio of 0.2 and an EV/EBITDA of 15.38, Cracker Barrel's valuation appears reasonable. Analysts estimate revenue growth of 3.7% next year. Given the company's efforts to improve operations and its loyalty program, which has over 11 million members, it is likely that Cracker Barrel will continue to see gradual improvement in its business. The company's dividend yield of 3.4% also provides a relatively stable source of return.

3. NewsRoom

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Rep. Tim Moore Buys Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) Shares

Mar -26

Source: defenseworld.net

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Members of Congress Bought These 5 Stocks—Should You?

Mar -18

Source: marketbeat.com

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Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (NASDAQ:CBRL) Receives Consensus Rating of “Reduce” from Brokerages

Mar -10

Source: defenseworld.net

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Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (NASDAQ:CBRL) Shares Gap Up Following Earnings Beat

Mar -06

Source: defenseworld.net

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Cracker Barrel Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Down Y/Y

Mar -05

Source: zacks.com

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Cracker Barrel Analysts Boost Their Forecasts After Upbeat Q2 Earnings

Mar -05

Source: benzinga.com

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Stock Market Today: Major Indexes Retreat After Rebounding Yesterday; Dow Drops 800 Points; Oil Jumps Further as Iran Claims to Have Attacked Tanker

Mar -05

Source: investopedia.com

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Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Surprised In A Good Way, But Still Deserves A Downgrade

Mar -05

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.12%)

6. Segments

Restaurant

Expected Growth: 1.2%

Cracker Barrel's 1.2% growth is driven by increasing off-premise sales, menu innovation, and effective marketing strategies. Additionally, the company's focus on convenience, including curbside pickup and delivery, has contributed to the growth. Furthermore, Cracker Barrel's strong brand reputation and loyal customer base have also supported the segment's growth.

Retail

Expected Growth: 0.8%

Cracker Barrel's retail segment growth of 0.8% is driven by increased sales of nostalgic and unique items, strategic pricing, and effective inventory management. Additionally, the company's focus on e-commerce and omnichannel experiences has contributed to the growth. Furthermore, the brand's strong marketing efforts and loyalty programs have helped to attract and retain customers, resulting in a steady increase in retail sales.

7. Detailed Products

Homestyle Cooking

Cracker Barrel's restaurants serve classic American comfort food, including breakfast items, sandwiches, salads, and entrees

Retail Goods

Cracker Barrel's retail stores offer a wide range of products, including clothing, accessories, home decor, and souvenirs

Bakery and Coffee

Cracker Barrel's in-store bakeries offer freshly baked goods, including pies, cakes, and cookies, as well as specialty coffee drinks

Gift Cards

Cracker Barrel offers gift cards that can be used in-store or online

Catering Services

Cracker Barrel offers catering services for events and gatherings

Online Shopping

Cracker Barrel's e-commerce platform allows customers to shop online for retail goods and have them shipped directly to their doorstep

8. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Cracker Barrel's menu items and retail products are moderately substitutable with those of its competitors. While customers may find similar products elsewhere, Cracker Barrel's unique blend of Southern-style cooking and rustic, country-themed retail offerings helps to differentiate it from competitors.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Cracker Barrel's customers have relatively low bargaining power due to the company's strong brand recognition and loyal customer base. Additionally, the company's unique retail offerings and restaurant menu items make it difficult for customers to find suitable alternatives.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Cracker Barrel's suppliers have relatively low bargaining power due to the company's large scale and diversified supply chain. The company's ability to negotiate prices and terms with suppliers helps to mitigate supplier power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants in the casual dining and retail industries is relatively low due to the high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and the need for a strong brand presence. Cracker Barrel's established brand and loyal customer base also make it difficult for new entrants to gain traction.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry in the casual dining and retail industries is high, with many established competitors vying for market share. Cracker Barrel faces intense competition from other casual dining chains and retailers, which can lead to pricing pressure and advertising wars.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 70.63%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 29.37%
Equity Cost 11.33%
WACC 6.11%
Leverage 240.53%

11. Quality Control: Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Flanigan's

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 9.0

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
RAVE

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 5.1

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 8.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Cannae Holdings

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 8.8

Growth: 1.7

Quality: 3.7

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Biglari

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 3.7

Growth: 2.3

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Cracker Barrel

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 1.9

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Ark Restaurants

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 2.3

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

28.11$

Current Price

28.11$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows