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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

CTO Realty Growth, Inc.is a Florida-based publicly traded real estate company, which owns income properties comprised of approximately 2.4 million square feet in diversified markets in the United States and an approximately 23.5% interest in Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc., a publicly traded net lease real estate investment trust (NYSE: PINE).

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1.b. Last Insights on CTO

CTO Realty Growth's recent performance has been impacted by poor financial prospects, despite its strong growth prospects. The company's financials have been affected by its high leverage profile, with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 6.4x. However, its robust growth with a 96% occupancy rate, $91.4 million annualized base rent, and significant portfolio expansion to 4.6 million square feet, indicate solid fundamentals. The company's recent earnings release showed a beat on FFO and revenue estimates, with FFO of $0.49 per share.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Strong Q4 Earnings Driven by High Lease Occupancy and NOI Growth

The company reported a robust fourth quarter with record high lease occupancy of 95.9% and same property NOI growth for shopping centers of 4.3%. The strong financial performance was highlighted by actual EPS coming in at $0.82, significantly beating estimates of $0.5. Revenue growth is expected to continue, with analysts estimating a 7.6% increase for the next year. The company's strategic focus on shopping centers in high-growth markets, along with proactive asset management, is driving results across the business.

Publication Date: Mar -08

📋 Highlights
  • Record Lease Occupancy:: Achieved 95.9% lease occupancy in Q4, reflecting strong tenant demand and effective asset management.
  • Same-Property NOI Growth:: 4.3% increase in same-property NOI for shopping centers, driven by strategic market focus and leasing success.
  • Landmark Acquisition:: Purchased Pompano City Center in South Florida for $65.2M, a 509,000 sq ft asset at 92% occupancy with major anchors.
  • Leasing Momentum:: Signed 189,000 sq ft in Q4 leases, including 167,000 sq ft of comparable leases with 31% cash rent increases, totaling 671,000 sq ft annually.
  • 2026 Guidance:: Core FFO per share projected at $1.98–$2.03 and AFFO at $2.11–$2.16, supported by $100M–$200M in investments at 8–8.5% yields.

Operational Highlights and Leasing Activity

The company signed leases for 189,000 square feet in the fourth quarter, including 167,000 square feet of comparable leases at a cash rent increase of 31%. For the full year, they signed leases for a record 671,000 square feet, with 592,000 square feet of comparable leases at a cash rent increase of 24%. The signed not open pipeline stands at $6.1 million, representing approximately 5.8% of annual cash-based rents, positioning the company for meaningful earnings growth. As Philip R. Mays stated, "almost half of the signed not open pipeline is anticipated to be recognized in 2026 and 100% in 2027."

Acquisition and Disposition Strategy

The company acquired Pompano City Center, a 509,000 square foot retail center in Florida, for $65.2 million, and sold The Shops at Legacy North for $78 million. They are under contract to acquire a 384,000 square foot shopping center in Texas for approximately $83 million, expected to close in 2026. The company's investment strategy is focused on high-growth markets, with a focus on open-air centers and larger shopping centers.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/E Ratio of 62.31 and an EV/EBITDA of 15.14, the company's valuation reflects a premium for its growth prospects. The Dividend Yield of 7.69% provides a relatively attractive return for investors. As the company continues to execute on its strategy, with a focus on high-growth markets and proactive asset management, it is well-positioned for long-term success.

Outlook and Guidance

The company provided initial earnings guidance for 2026, with Core FFO per diluted share expected to be between $1.98 and $2.03, and AFFO per diluted share between $2.11 and $2.16. The guidance assumes investment volume of $100 million to $200 million at a weighted average initial yield between 8% and 8.5%, and same property NOI growth for shopping centers of 3.5% to 4.5%. With a strong pipeline of growth opportunities, the company is well-positioned to continue delivering value to shareholders.

3. NewsRoom

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CTO Realty Growth: Why Bears Have Been Wrong So Far About A Dividend Cut

Mar -12

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Crossingbridge Advisors LLC Has $4.27 Million Position in CTO Realty Growth, Inc. $CTO

Mar -09

Source: defenseworld.net

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The Hormuz Halt

Mar -08

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Kuehn Law Encourages Investors of CTO Realty Growth, Inc. to Contact Law Firm

Mar -06

Source: newsfilecorp.com

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CTO Realty Growth: Shopping For Undervalued Shares Of This Growing REIT In Southeast

Mar -05

Source: seekingalpha.com

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CTO Realty Growth: 8% Yield Backed By Strong Leasing Momentum (Downgrade)

Mar -02

Source: seekingalpha.com

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CTO Realty Growth Announces Acquisition of Palms Crossing for $81.6 Million

Mar -02

Source: globenewswire.com

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CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -20

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.95%)

6. Segments

Income Properties

Expected Growth: 4.65%

CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s 4.65% growth in Income Properties is driven by increasing demand for industrial and logistics spaces, e-commerce growth, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on high-growth markets, such as last-mile delivery and cold storage facilities, contributes to its growth momentum.

Management Services

Expected Growth: 8.5%

CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s 8.5% growth in Management Services is driven by increasing demand for outsourced property management, strategic acquisitions, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, the company's focus on technology integration, cost savings initiatives, and strong relationships with property owners and investors contribute to its growth momentum.

Commercial Loans and Investments

Expected Growth: 8.9%

CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s 8.9% growth in Commercial Loans and Investments is driven by increasing demand for commercial properties, low interest rates, and government incentives for real estate development. Additionally, the company's strategic expansion into new markets, diversification of loan products, and strong relationships with borrowers have contributed to this growth.

Real Estate

Expected Growth: 4.83%

CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s 4.83% growth in Real Estate is driven by increasing demand for housing, low interest rates, and government incentives. Additionally, the company's strategic expansion into new markets, diversification of property types, and effective cost management have contributed to its growth.

7. Detailed Products

Net Lease Properties

CTO Realty Growth, Inc. offers a diversified portfolio of net lease properties, providing a stable source of income through long-term leases with high-credit tenants.

Grocery-Anchored Shopping Centers

The company's portfolio includes grocery-anchored shopping centers, which provide a stable source of income through long-term leases with creditworthy tenants.

Dollar Stores

CTO Realty Growth, Inc. owns and operates a portfolio of dollar stores, providing a stable source of income through long-term leases with creditworthy tenants.

Free-Standing Retail Properties

The company's portfolio includes free-standing retail properties, which provide a stable source of income through long-term leases with creditworthy tenants.

Land Investments

CTO Realty Growth, Inc. invests in land for future development, providing a potential source of long-term appreciation in value.

8. CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for CTO Realty Growth, Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative investment options in the real estate industry.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for CTO Realty Growth, Inc. is low due to the company's strong brand reputation and limited alternatives for customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for CTO Realty Growth, Inc. is medium due to the company's dependence on a few key suppliers for materials and services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for CTO Realty Growth, Inc. is high due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the real estate industry and the attractiveness of the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for CTO Realty Growth, Inc. is high due to the highly competitive nature of the real estate industry and the presence of several established players.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 54.42%
Debt Cost 4.90%
Equity Weight 45.58%
Equity Cost 6.89%
WACC 5.81%
Leverage 119.38%

11. Quality Control: CTO Realty Growth, Inc. passed 1 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Gladstone Commercial

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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CTO Realty Growth

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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One Liberty Properties

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 5.3

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Urban Edge

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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American Assets Trust

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 5.4

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Presidio Property Trust

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 8.5

Growth: 0.8

Quality: 2.8

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

18.72$

Current Price

18.72$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows