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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Duke Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy company in the United States.It operates through three segments: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, and Commercial Renewables.The Electric Utilities and Infrastructure segment generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity in the Carolinas, Florida, and the Midwest; and uses coal, hydroelectric, natural gas, oil, renewable generation, and nuclear fuel to generate electricity.


It also engages in the wholesale of electricity to municipalities, electric cooperative utilities, and load-serving entities.This segment serves approximately 8.2 million customers in 6 states in the Southeast and Midwest regions of the United States covering a service territory of approximately 91,000 square miles; and owns approximately 50,259 megawatts (MW) of generation capacity.The Gas Utilities and Infrastructure segment distributes natural gas to residential, commercial, industrial, and power generation natural gas customers; and owns, operates, and invests in pipeline transmission and natural gas storage facilities.


It has approximately 1.6 million customers, including 1.1 million customers in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee, as well as 550,000 customers in southwestern Ohio and northern Kentucky.The Commercial Renewables segment acquires, owns, develops, builds, and operates wind and solar renewable generation projects, including nonregulated renewable energy and energy storage services to utilities, electric cooperatives, municipalities, and corporate customers.It has 23 wind, 178 solar, and 2 battery storage facilities, as well as 71 fuel cell locations with a capacity of 3,554 MW across 22 states.


The company was formerly known as Duke Energy Holding Corp.and changed its name to Duke Energy Corporation in April 2005.The company was founded in 1904 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.

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1.b. Last Insights on DUK

Duke Energy's recent stock performance can be attributed to strong Q4 earnings, beating estimates by $0.05 per share, and solid guidance. The company's ability to generate $1.66 per share in earnings, up from $1.51 per share in the prior year, is a positive indicator. Additionally, Duke Energy's consistent execution and growing cash flows have supported its share buyback program, which reduces outstanding shares and boosts earnings per share. These factors have likely contributed to the company's resilience in a challenging market environment.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Duke Energy's 2025 Earnings Report: A Strong Finish with Growth Ahead

Duke Energy Corporation reported a strong financial performance for 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of $6.31, representing a 7% growth over 2024. The company's adjusted EPS guidance range for 2026 is $6.55 to $6.80, driven by top-line growth from efficient regulatory constructs and steady growth from grid riders. The actual EPS for the fourth quarter came out at $1.5, slightly beating estimates of $1.49. Revenue growth is expected to be around 4.0% next year, according to analysts' estimates. The company's financial results were underpinned by a $6 billion increase in the five-year capital plan to $103 billion, focused on critical energy infrastructure investments.

Publication Date: Feb -11

📋 Highlights
  • 2025 Earnings Growth:: Reported $6.31 EPS, up 7% YoY, with 2026 guidance of $6.55–$6.80.
  • Capital Plan Expansion:: 5-year plan raised to $103B (+$6B), driving 9.6% CAGR rate base growth through 2030.
  • Data Center Load Growth:: 4.5 GW of executed ESAs, with 75% of 2030 load expected from data centers.
  • Storm Cost Recovery:: Recovered/securitized $3B in storm costs in 2025, enhancing financial resilience.
  • FFO to Debt Ratio:: 14.8% in 2025, targeting 14% in 2026, underpinning balance sheet strength.

Capital Plan and Investment Strategy

The company's $103 billion capital plan is the largest among regulated utilities, representing an 18% increase versus the prior plan. This plan drives 9.6% earnings base growth through 2030, underpinning confidence in delivering sustainable, long-term growth. Duke Energy's rate base is expected to grow at a 9.6% CAGR, with the delta between rate base and EPS growth due to funding with equity and debt. The company aims to maintain a 15% FFO to debt ratio, underpinned by improving operating cash flows and regulatory mechanisms.

Data Center Opportunities and Load Growth

Duke Energy has signed 4.5 gigawatts of electric service agreements (ESAs) with data centers, with a pipeline of around 9 gigawatts. These contracts have minimum billing demands, giving Duke Energy high confidence in its revenue profile. The company expects an inflection point in 2028 as data centers start ramping up, driving earnings growth. Data centers are expected to comprise about 75% of the company's load by 2030, up from 50% a couple of quarters ago.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/E Ratio of 19.28 and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 12.0, Duke Energy's valuation multiples suggest that the market is pricing in a certain level of growth. The company's ROE is 9.73%, and ROIC is 4.15%, indicating a decent return on equity and invested capital. The dividend yield is 3.41%, providing a relatively stable source of return for investors. Given the company's growth prospects, driven by data center opportunities and a robust capital plan, Duke Energy appears to be well-positioned for sustainable, long-term growth.

3. NewsRoom

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Duke Energy Foundation offers $500,000 to strengthen emergency preparedness across South Carolina

Mar -11

Source: prnewswire.com

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Duke Energy reaches agreement with South Carolina customer groups and others on proposed combination of Duke Energy Carolinas, Duke Energy Progress

Mar -10

Source: prnewswire.com

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Duke Energy reaches agreements with North Carolina customer advocates, NC Attorney General's office and others on proposed combination of Duke Energy Carolinas, Duke Energy Progress

Mar -10

Source: prnewswire.com

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Duke Energy prices upsized offering of $1.3 billion of 3.000% convertible senior notes due 2029

Mar -10

Source: prnewswire.com

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Duke Energy announces proposed offering of $1 billion of convertible senior notes due 2029

Mar -09

Source: prnewswire.com

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3 Blue-Chip Stocks Built for a Rotating Market

Mar -08

Source: marketbeat.com

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Understanding higher energy bills this winter - and how Duke Energy can help

Mar -06

Source: prnewswire.com

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Interest Rates Are Heading Down — These 3 Stocks Win Big When They Do

Mar -06

Source: 247wallst.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.77%)

6. Segments

Electric Utilities and Infrastructure

Expected Growth: 4.8%

Duke Energy’s growth is driven by increasing focus on renewable energy, grid modernization, and expanding its natural gas infrastructure, which will support a steady growth rate in the coming years.

Gas Utilities and Infrastructure

Expected Growth: 4.1%

Duke Energy's natural gas segment is expected to grow due to increasing demand for clean energy, infrastructure expansion, and strategic acquisitions in the southeastern United States.

Other

Expected Growth: 8.5%

Duke Energy’s Other segment is expected to grow driven by increasing demand for renewable energy and energy storage, as well as government incentives and regulations supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy.

Eliminations

Expected Growth: 4.1%

Duke Energy's Eliminations segment growth is driven by increasing focus on cost optimization, streamlined operations, and a shift towards renewable energy sources, leading to improved efficiency and reduced inter-segment transactions.

7. Detailed Products

Electricity

Duke Energy generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity to retail and wholesale customers in the southeastern and midwestern United States.

Natural Gas

Duke Energy distributes and sells natural gas to retail customers in Ohio and Kentucky.

Renewable Energy

Duke Energy develops, owns, and operates renewable energy projects, including wind and solar farms, to generate electricity.

Energy Storage

Duke Energy offers energy storage solutions to help customers manage energy usage and reduce peak demand.

Grid Modernization

Duke Energy invests in grid modernization initiatives to improve the reliability, efficiency, and sustainability of the electric grid.

Energy Efficiency

Duke Energy offers energy efficiency programs and services to help customers reduce energy consumption and lower their energy bills.

8. Duke Energy Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Duke Energy Corporation operates in a highly regulated industry, and the threat of substitutes is moderate. While there are alternative energy sources available, the cost and convenience of traditional energy sources make them more attractive to customers.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Duke Energy Corporation has a large customer base, but individual customers have limited bargaining power due to the lack of alternative energy providers in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Duke Energy Corporation relies on a diverse range of suppliers for fuel, equipment, and services. While suppliers have some bargaining power, the company's large scale of operations and diversified supply chain mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The energy industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements, regulatory hurdles, and infrastructure costs. This limits the threat of new entrants in the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The energy industry is highly competitive, with several large players competing for market share. Duke Energy Corporation faces intense rivalry from other energy companies, which can lead to pricing pressures and reduced market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 61.73%
Debt Cost 4.12%
Equity Weight 38.27%
Equity Cost 6.22%
WACC 4.92%
Leverage 161.27%

11. Quality Control: Duke Energy Corporation passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Duke Energy

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 7.0

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 10.0

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Southern

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 5.1

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 10.0

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Stock-Card
American Electric Power

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 4.4

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 10.0

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Stock-Card
ConEd

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 5.3

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 10.0

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Stock-Card
Edison

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
PSEG

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

130.03$

Current Price

130.03$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows