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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Aspen Technology, Inc.provides enterprise asset performance management, asset performance monitoring, and asset optimization solutions worldwide.The company's solutions address complex environments where it is critical to optimize the asset design, operation, and maintenance lifecycle.


It serves bulk chemicals, consumer packaged goods, downstream, food and beverage, metals and mining, midstream and LNG, pharmaceuticals, polymers, pulp and paper, specialty chemicals, transportation, upstream, and water and wastewater industries; power generation, transmission, and distribution industries; and engineering, procurement, and construction industries.The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Bedford, Massachusetts.

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1.b. Last Insights on AZPN

Aspen Technology, Inc.'s recent performance was driven by a strong Q2 earnings release, surpassing estimates with a quarterly earnings of $2.06 per share, beating the consensus estimate of $1.85 per share. The company's revenue also increased year-over-year, further boosting the stock's momentum. Additionally, the recent merger agreement with Emerson Electric Co. may have contributed to the stock's recent surge, although investigations into potential breaches of fiduciary duty by the company's officers and directors may raise concerns among shareholders. A share buyback program would be a welcome development, but no such announcement has been made.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Transcript Summary

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3. NewsRoom

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Emerson Extends Tender Offer to Accommodate S&P MidCap 400 Index Change

Mar -10

Source: prnewswire.com

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Activist Elliott takes a stake in Aspen Technology and pushes back on an offer from Emerson

Mar -01

Source: cnbc.com

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SHAREHOLDER ALERT: Levi & Korsinsky, LLP Notifies Investors of an Investigation into Aspen Technology Inc.

Feb -28

Source: accessnewswire.com

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SHAREHOLDER ALERT: Levi & Korsinsky, LLP Notifies Investors of an Investigation into Aspen Technology Inc.

Feb -27

Source: accessnewswire.com

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SHAREHOLDER ALERT: Levi & Korsinsky, LLP Notifies Investors of an Investigation into Aspen Technology Inc.

Feb -26

Source: accessnewswire.com

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SHAREHOLDER ALERT: Levi & Korsinsky, LLP Informs Shareholders of an Investigation into Aspen Technology Inc.

Feb -25

Source: accessnewswire.com

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SHAREHOLDER ALERT: Levi & Korsinsky, LLP Informs Shareholders of an Investigation into Aspen Technology Inc.

Feb -24

Source: accessnewswire.com

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SHAREHOLDER ALERT: Levi & Korsinsky, LLP Informs Shareholders of an Investigation into Aspen Technology Inc.

Feb -21

Source: accessnewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (7.52%)

6. Segments

Heritage AspenTech

Expected Growth: 7.5%

Heritage AspenTech's 7.5% growth is driven by increasing adoption of industrial automation and digitalization, strong demand for asset optimization and operational efficiency solutions, and expansion into new markets such as renewable energy and pharmaceuticals.

Open System International Inc.

Expected Growth: 6.5%

Open System International Inc.'s 6.5% growth is driven by increasing adoption of digital twin technology, rising demand for grid management solutions, and expanding presence in renewable energy markets. Additionally, Aspen Technology's strategic acquisitions and partnerships have enhanced OSI's product offerings, further fueling growth.

Subsurface Science & Engineering

Expected Growth: 9.0%

Aspen Technology's Subsurface Science & Engineering segment growth is driven by increasing demand for digitalization in the oil and gas industry, adoption of AI and machine learning in exploration and production, and rising need for operational efficiency and cost reduction. Additionally, growing investments in renewable energy and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technologies are contributing to the segment's 9.0% growth.

7. Detailed Products

Aspen Plus

A process modeling software that enables users to model, simulate, and optimize chemical processes

Aspen HYSYS

A process modeling software that enables users to model, simulate, and optimize oil and gas processes

Aspen PIMS

A production planning and scheduling software that enables users to optimize production plans and schedules

Aspen MES

A manufacturing execution system that enables users to manage and optimize production operations

Aspen Asset Optimization

A software that enables users to optimize asset performance, reliability, and maintenance

Aspen Mtell

A machine learning-based software that enables users to detect anomalies and predict equipment failures

Aspen Fidelis

A software that enables users to detect and respond to cyber threats in industrial control systems

8. Aspen Technology, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Aspen Technology, Inc. operates in a niche market with limited substitutes, but the threat of substitutes is still present due to the increasing adoption of cloud-based solutions.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Aspen Technology, Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's products are often critical to customers' operations, making it difficult for customers to switch to alternative solutions.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Aspen Technology, Inc. has a diverse supplier base, and the company is not heavily dependent on any single supplier. This reduces the bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The industrial software market has high barriers to entry, including significant research and development investments and the need for specialized expertise. This makes it difficult for new entrants to compete with established players like Aspen Technology, Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The industrial software market is highly competitive, with several established players competing for market share. Aspen Technology, Inc. faces intense competition from companies like Siemens, ABB, and Dassault Systemes.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 0.52%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 99.48%
Equity Cost 7.76%
WACC 7.74%
Leverage 0.52%

11. Quality Control: Aspen Technology, Inc. passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Aspen Technology

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 3.2

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Tyler Technologies

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 0.7

Growth: 7.2

Quality: 7.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Elastic

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 2.5

Growth: 8.0

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Progress Software

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 4.4

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Manhattan Associates

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 0.6

Growth: 7.9

Quality: 8.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Agilysys

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 0.0

Growth: 7.9

Quality: 7.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

264.33$

Current Price

264.33$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows