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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

FibroGen, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes therapeutics to treat serious unmet medical needs.The company is developing Roxadustat, an oral small molecule inhibitor of hypoxia inducible factor prolyl hydroxylases, which has completed Phase III clinical development for the treatment of anemia in chronic kidney disease in the United States, Europe, China, and Japan; and in Phase II/III development in China for anemia associated with myelodysplastic syndromes.It is also developing Pamrevlumab, a human monoclonal antibody that inhibits the activity of connective tissue growth factor that is in Phase III clinical development for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, pancreatic cancer, liver fibrosis, and diabetic kidney disease, as well as Phase III trial for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy.


The company has collaboration agreements with Astellas Pharma Inc.and AstraZeneca AB.FibroGen, Inc.


was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on FGEN

FibroGen's recent performance has been negatively impacted by the sale of its China subsidiary to AstraZeneca for approximately $160 million, which may have raised concerns about the company's future growth prospects. The departure of its previous CFO, Juan Graham, and the appointment of David DeLucia as the new CFO may have also contributed to uncertainty. The company's reliance on AstraZeneca for a significant portion of its revenue may also be a concern.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. FibroGen's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Closer Look

FibroGen reported a net loss from continuing operations of $13.1 million for the third quarter of 2025, with an actual EPS of -$1.61, significantly better than the estimated -$4.01. The company's financial performance was also marked by the sale of FibroGen China to AstraZeneca for approximately $220 million, which extended the company's cash runway into 2028. The transaction included an enterprise value of $85 million plus $135 million in net cash held in China. Total operating costs and expenses, including stock-based compensation, are expected to be between $50 million and $60 million for full year 2025.

Publication Date: Nov -30

📋 Highlights
  • Sale of FibroGen China: to AstraZeneca for $220 million extended cash runway to 2028.
  • FG-3246 Phase II trial: initiated in September, with interim results expected by late 2026, and investigator-sponsored trial showed 10.2 months radiographic PFS.
  • Roxadustat Phase III trial: plans for lower-risk MDS, with estimated $50–60 million cost for 200-patient enrollment over 18–24 months.
  • Q3 2025 net loss: was $13.1 million, with full-year operating expenses revised to $50–60 million including stock-based compensation.
  • Fortis ADC agreement: includes $80 million option to acquire Fortis for Phase III and $75 million milestone if approved.

Cash Runway and Financial Position

The sale of FibroGen China has substantially strengthened FibroGen's financial position, with the cash runway now extended into 2028. This development is expected to support the company's mid- and late-stage clinical development programs for FG-3246 and roxadustat. The estimated cost for the roxadustat MDS pivotal trial is $50 million to $60 million, which may impact the company's cash guidance, potentially bringing the runway into the second half of 2027 if the trial is undertaken without incremental capital.

Valuation Metrics

FibroGen's current valuation metrics indicate a 'P/E Ratio' of -17.22, a 'P/S Ratio' of -0.49, and an 'EV/EBITDA' of -0.82. The 'ROIC' stands at -122.23%, and 'ROE' is at 0.95%. These metrics suggest that the market is pricing in significant growth expectations, but the negative ratios indicate that the company's current financial performance is still a challenge. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -9.6%, indicating a continued decline in revenues.

Clinical Development Programs

The company is making progress with its clinical development programs, particularly with FG-3246, a potential first-in-class antibody drug conjugate targeting CD46 in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. The Phase II monotherapy trial of FG-3246 was initiated in September, with interim results expected in the second half of 2026. Additionally, the investigator-sponsored trial of FG-3246 in combination with enzalutamide demonstrated a preliminary estimate of 10.2 months of radiographic progression-free survival.

Roxadustat's Potential

Roxadustat is another key asset for FibroGen, with potential as a new treatment option for anemia associated with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes. The company has aligned with the FDA on key design elements and the regulatory path forward for roxadustat, and plans to submit the pivotal Phase III protocol by the end of the year. The trial will evaluate 8-week and 16-week RBC transfusion independence as the primary endpoint.

3. NewsRoom

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FibroGen, Inc. (FGEN) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -11

Source: seekingalpha.com

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FibroGen (FGEN) Reports Q3 Loss, Lags Revenue Estimates

Nov -11

Source: zacks.com

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FibroGen to Report Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Nov -03

Source: globenewswire.com

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FibroGen Initiates Phase 2 Monotherapy Trial of FG-3246, a First-in-Class CD46 Targeting ADC, in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer

Sep -24

Source: globenewswire.com

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FibroGen to Present at the H.C. Wainwright 27th Annual Global Investment Conference

Aug -27

Source: globenewswire.com

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FibroGen Announces Approval of Sale of FibroGen China to AstraZeneca by the China State Administration for Market Regulation

Aug -18

Source: globenewswire.com

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FibroGen, Inc. (FGEN) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Aug -12

Source: seekingalpha.com

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FibroGen (FGEN) Reports Q2 Loss, Lags Revenue Estimates

Aug -11

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (6.00%)

6. Segments

Novel Therapeutics

Expected Growth: 6.0%

FibroGen's Novel Therapeutics segment growth is driven by increasing adoption of roxadustat, a first-in-class oral hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase inhibitor, for anemia treatment in chronic kidney disease patients. Strong clinical trial results, expanding label indications, and growing market share in the US and China contribute to the 6.0% growth rate.

7. Detailed Products

Roxadustat

Roxadustat is an oral hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase inhibitor (HIF-PHI) that promotes erythropoiesis, or the production of red blood cells, and is in development for the treatment of anemia in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients.

Pamrevlumab

Pamrevlumab is a first-in-class, anti-CTGF (connective tissue growth factor) antibody being developed to treat fibrotic diseases, including idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and pancreatic cancer.

FG-3019

FG-3019 is a monoclonal antibody being developed to treat locally advanced pancreatic cancer and other solid tumors.

8. FibroGen, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

FibroGen, Inc. has a moderate threat of substitutes due to the availability of alternative treatments for anemia and other diseases. However, the company's innovative approach to treating these diseases may reduce the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

FibroGen, Inc. has a low bargaining power of customers due to the lack of negotiating power of individual patients and the high demand for effective treatments.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

FibroGen, Inc. has a moderate bargaining power of suppliers due to the availability of multiple suppliers for raw materials and services. However, the company's dependence on a few key suppliers may increase the bargaining power of these suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

FibroGen, Inc. has a high threat of new entrants due to the attractiveness of the biotechnology industry and the potential for new companies to enter the market with innovative treatments.

Intensity Of Rivalry

FibroGen, Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry with several established companies and a high level of rivalry. The company must differentiate itself through innovation and strategic partnerships to maintain its market position.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight -103.45%
Debt Cost 8.37%
Equity Weight 203.45%
Equity Cost 8.37%
WACC 8.37%
Leverage -50.85%

11. Quality Control: FibroGen, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
FibroGen

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 2.4

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 0.7

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Stock-Card
scPharma

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 2.3

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Dyadic International

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 1.3

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Avalo Therapeutics

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 0.7

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GlycoMimetics

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 3.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Mersana Therapeutics

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 9.2

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

8.66$

Current Price

8.66$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows