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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

FibroGen, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes therapeutics to treat serious unmet medical needs.The company is developing Roxadustat, an oral small molecule inhibitor of hypoxia inducible factor prolyl hydroxylases, which has completed Phase III clinical development for the treatment of anemia in chronic kidney disease in the United States, Europe, China, and Japan; and in Phase II/III development in China for anemia associated with myelodysplastic syndromes.It is also developing Pamrevlumab, a human monoclonal antibody that inhibits the activity of connective tissue growth factor that is in Phase III clinical development for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, pancreatic cancer, liver fibrosis, and diabetic kidney disease, as well as Phase III trial for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy.


The company has collaboration agreements with Astellas Pharma Inc.and AstraZeneca AB.FibroGen, Inc.


was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on FGEN

FibroGen's recent performance has been negatively impacted by the sale of its China subsidiary to AstraZeneca for approximately $160 million, which may have raised concerns about the company's future growth prospects. The departure of its previous CFO, Juan Graham, and the appointment of David DeLucia as the new CFO may have also contributed to uncertainty. The company's reliance on AstraZeneca for a significant portion of its revenue may also be a concern.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Kyntra Bio: Cash Runs, Losses, and Antibody Ambitions

In 2025, Kyntra Bio generated $6.4 million in revenue, a steep decline from $29.6 million in 2024, while incurring a net loss of $14.6 million or $3.61 per share in Q4 alone (Kyntra Bio staff, 2025 Q4 earnings call). The company’s cash balance of $109.4 million now supports operations through 2028, a significant extension after selling FibroGen China and repaying its senior secured term loan.

Publication Date: Apr -18

📋 Highlights
  • Financial Stability:: $109.4M in cash and equivalents as of Dec 2025, extending runway into 2028 after paying off $80M senior loan.
  • Revenue Decline:: 2025 revenue dropped 78% YoY ($6.4M vs. $29.6M), with Q4 revenue halving to $1.3M from $3.1M in 2024.
  • FG-3246 Market Potential:: Targets $5B+ annual U.S. market for mCRPC; interim phase 2 results expected in 2026 as monotherapy.
  • Roxadustat Progress:: Orphan Drug Designation for MDS anemia; phase 3 protocol submitted, FDA feedback pending for Q3 2025 initiation.
  • IST Trial Patient Mix:: 60% of 2025 IST participants had progressed on ≥2 ARPIs, while phase 2 monotherapy trial will include only 1 prior ARPI.

Revenue Decline and Cash Position

Year‑over‑year revenue fell 78% as the company’s product pipeline remains in early clinical stages. Despite this, the $109.4 million cash cushion provides a runway to 2028, enabling continued investment in FG‑3246 and roxadustat without immediate financing pressures.

Loss and Margin Analysis

Operating losses widened to $14.6 million in Q4, reflecting high R&D and clinical trial costs. The gross margin was essentially nil, with the company reporting a net loss per share of $3.61, underscoring the early‑stage nature of its oncology assets.

Valuation Snapshot

At current earnings, Kyntra trades at a P/E of 0.16, P/S of 4.6, and EV/EBITDA of 0.4, reflecting investor expectations of future upside once clinical milestones are achieved. The low multiples highlight the risk‑adjusted discount applied to a still‑unproven product portfolio.

FG‑3246 Program Highlights

FG‑3246, an antibody‑drug conjugate targeting CD46 in mCRPC, showed encouraging antitumor activity in an investigator‑sponsored trial combined with enzalutamide, presented at ASCO GU. With a U.S. TAM over $5 billion, the program could rival Pluvicto if FDA approval follows.

Roxadustat Orphan Designation

Roxadustat, aimed at anemia in lower‑risk MDS, received Orphan Drug Designation, and a phase‑3 protocol has been submitted. The company expects FDA feedback soon and plans a phase‑3 launch in the second half of 2025.

Strategic Moves and Partnerships

Beyond divestiture, Kyntra is exploring collaborations for FG‑3246 and roxadustat to accelerate development and commercialization, while maintaining control over its core oncology pipeline.

Future Outlook and Guidance

The company anticipates interim results from phase‑2 monotherapy trials of FG‑3246 and FG‑3180 in 2026, with revenue growth projected at 0.0% for 2026, reflecting a focus on clinical milestones over short‑term earnings.

3. NewsRoom

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Kyntra Bio to Report Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results

Mar -09

Source: globenewswire.com

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Kyntra Bio Announces Positive Data from the Investigator-Sponsored Phase 1b/2 Study of FG-3246 in Combination with Enzalutamide in Patients with Metastatic Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer to Be Presented at ASCO GU 2026

Feb -23

Source: globenewswire.com

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FibroGen (NASDAQ:FGEN) Stock Crosses Above Fifty Day Moving Average – Here’s Why

Jan -24

Source: defenseworld.net

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FibroGen Rebrands as Kyntra Bio to Reflect a New Era of Focus and Momentum

Jan -07

Source: globenewswire.com

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FibroGen, Inc. (FGEN) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -11

Source: seekingalpha.com

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FibroGen (FGEN) Reports Q3 Loss, Lags Revenue Estimates

Nov -11

Source: zacks.com

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FibroGen to Report Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Nov -03

Source: globenewswire.com

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FibroGen Initiates Phase 2 Monotherapy Trial of FG-3246, a First-in-Class CD46 Targeting ADC, in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer

Sep -24

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (6.00%)

6. Segments

Novel Therapeutics

Expected Growth: 6.0%

FibroGen's Novel Therapeutics segment growth is driven by increasing adoption of roxadustat, a first-in-class oral hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase inhibitor, for anemia treatment in chronic kidney disease patients. Strong clinical trial results, expanding label indications, and growing market share in the US and China contribute to the 6.0% growth rate.

7. Detailed Products

Roxadustat

Roxadustat is an oral hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase inhibitor (HIF-PHI) that promotes erythropoiesis, or the production of red blood cells, and is in development for the treatment of anemia in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients.

Pamrevlumab

Pamrevlumab is a first-in-class, anti-CTGF (connective tissue growth factor) antibody being developed to treat fibrotic diseases, including idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and pancreatic cancer.

FG-3019

FG-3019 is a monoclonal antibody being developed to treat locally advanced pancreatic cancer and other solid tumors.

8. FibroGen, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

FibroGen, Inc. has a moderate threat of substitutes due to the availability of alternative treatments for anemia and other diseases. However, the company's innovative approach to treating these diseases may reduce the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

FibroGen, Inc. has a low bargaining power of customers due to the lack of negotiating power of individual patients and the high demand for effective treatments.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

FibroGen, Inc. has a moderate bargaining power of suppliers due to the availability of multiple suppliers for raw materials and services. However, the company's dependence on a few key suppliers may increase the bargaining power of these suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

FibroGen, Inc. has a high threat of new entrants due to the attractiveness of the biotechnology industry and the potential for new companies to enter the market with innovative treatments.

Intensity Of Rivalry

FibroGen, Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry with several established companies and a high level of rivalry. The company must differentiate itself through innovation and strategic partnerships to maintain its market position.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight -103.45%
Debt Cost 8.37%
Equity Weight 203.45%
Equity Cost 8.37%
WACC 8.37%
Leverage -50.85%

11. Quality Control: FibroGen, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
scPharma

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Avalo Therapeutics

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 2.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
FibroGen

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 2.4

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Dyadic International

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Mersana Therapeutics

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
GlycoMimetics

A-Score: 2.8/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 3.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

9.07$

Current Price

9.07$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows