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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Goosehead Insurance, Inc.operates as a holding company for Goosehead Financial, LLC that provides personal lines insurance agency services in the United States.The company operates in two segments, Corporate Channel and Franchise Channel.


It offers homeowner's, insurance, automotive, dwelling property insurance, flood, wind, earthquake, excess liability or umbrella, motorcycle, recreational vehicle, general liability, property, and life insurance products and services.As of December 31, 2021, the company had 2,151 total franchises.Goosehead Insurance, Inc.


was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Westlake, Texas.

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1.b. Last Insights on GSHD

The recent 3-month performance of Goosehead Insurance, Inc. was negatively impacted by a series of events. Analyst downgrades, including a price target reduction from $79.00 to $55.00 by BMO Capital Markets, led to a 6.8% decline in shares. This downgrade resulted in a new 12-month low for the stock, with shares trading as low as $44.00. Additionally, the company's Q4 earnings report showed a decrease in net income, from $23.8 million to $20.8 million, despite beating revenue estimates. The company's total revenue grew 12% year-over-year, but core revenue increased only 15%. Furthermore, the company's adjusted EBITDA rose 14% to $113.6 million, but this growth was not enough to offset the decline in net income.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Goosehead Insurance's Strong FY2025 Results and Promising Outlook

Goosehead Insurance reported a robust financial performance for the full year 2025, with total revenue growing 16% to $365.3 million and adjusted EBITDA margin reaching 31%. The company's earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.64, beating analyst estimates of $0.54. The strong revenue growth was driven by a 14% increase in policies in force, which rose to 1.9 million, and a 13% growth in total written premiums to $1.1 billion.

Publication Date: Mar -02

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue & EBITDA Growth:: Full-year 2025 revenue grew 16% to $365.3M, adjusted EBITDA rose 14% to $52.9M, with a 31% margin.
  • Policy & Retention Momentum:: Policies in force increased 14% to 1.9M, client retention improved 1% YoY, driving 13% growth in total written premiums to $1.1B.
  • Digital Agent 2.0 Expansion:: Platform live in Texas with multiple auto/home carriers, enabling policy issuance without human involvement, set for national roll-out in 2026.
  • 2026 Guidance:: Core revenue growth expected between 10–19%, written premiums between 12–20%, with EBITDA margins temporarily pressured by AI/tech investments.
  • AI & Franchise Productivity:: AI tools (e.g., Lily, mobile app) handled 100K+ client interactions, while franchise same-store sales rose 19% and agency payments grew 29% in Q4.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was equally impressive, with client retention improving by 1% year-over-year, and strong productivity across all three distribution networks. Goosehead's Digital Agent 2.0 platform, launched in Texas, has shown promising results, with policies bound with no human involvement. The company plans to expand this platform nationally, prioritizing geographies with high demand and carrier appetite.

Growth Drivers and Outlook

Goosehead's growth is expected to be driven by its franchise network, corporate sales organization, and enterprise sales and partnerships business. The company has guided for low double-digit core revenue growth in the first half of 2026, accelerating to higher growth rates in the second half. Analysts estimate revenue growth at 19.3% for the next year, which is within the company's guided range of 10-19% organic revenue growth.

Valuation and Profitability

Goosehead's current valuation multiples are 8.65x Price-to-Sales (P/S) and 36.9x EV/EBITDA. The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) stands at 16.51%, indicating strong profitability. However, the Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio is negative at -8.24, likely due to intangible assets and goodwill. For an insurance company, the Combined Ratio is a key metric to assess underwriting profitability, although it was not directly provided in the earnings call.

Investment Considerations

Investors should consider Goosehead's strong growth prospects, driven by its technology investments and expanding distribution networks. However, the company's valuation multiples are relatively high, indicating that much of the growth is already priced in. As Mark Jones Jr. noted, "we're being very thoughtful in deploying AI into the areas that actually deliver a strategic advantage and profitable growth." This strategic focus on AI and technology is expected to drive long-term shareholder value.

3. NewsRoom

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3G Capital Partners LP Sells 337,500 Shares of Goosehead Insurance $GSHD

Mar -15

Source: defenseworld.net

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Goosehead Insurance (NASDAQ:GSHD) Shares Down 6.8% on Analyst Downgrade

Feb -20

Source: defenseworld.net

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Goosehead Insurance Q4 Earnings Call Highlights

Feb -19

Source: defenseworld.net

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Goosehead Insurance (NASDAQ:GSHD) Reaches New 12-Month Low After Analyst Downgrade

Feb -19

Source: defenseworld.net

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Public Sector Pension Investment Board Has $7.36 Million Holdings in Goosehead Insurance $GSHD

Feb -18

Source: defenseworld.net

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Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -18

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Goosehead (GSHD) Reports Q4 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say

Feb -17

Source: zacks.com

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Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) Q4 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates

Feb -17

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.23%)

6. Segments

Insurance and Related Activities

Expected Growth: 8.23%

Goosehead Insurance's 8.23% growth in Insurance and Related Activities is driven by increasing demand for personalized insurance services, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on digital transformation, improved customer experience, and a strong agent network have contributed to its growth.

7. Detailed Products

Personal Lines Insurance

Provides coverage for individuals and families, including auto, home, umbrella, and other personal insurance products.

Commercial Lines Insurance

Offers coverage for businesses, including liability, property, workers' compensation, and other commercial insurance products.

Life Insurance

Provides financial protection for loved ones in the event of death, including term life, whole life, and universal life insurance.

Health Insurance

Offers medical, dental, and vision insurance plans for individuals, families, and groups.

Cyber Insurance

Provides coverage for businesses and individuals against cyber-attacks, data breaches, and other cyber-related risks.

Umbrella Insurance

Offers additional liability coverage beyond standard insurance policies, providing extra protection for assets and financial well-being.

8. Goosehead Insurance, Inc's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Goosehead Insurance, Inc. is low due to the company's strong brand recognition and customer loyalty.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Goosehead Insurance, Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative insurance providers and the ability of customers to negotiate prices.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Goosehead Insurance, Inc. is low due to the company's strong relationships with its suppliers and the availability of alternative suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Goosehead Insurance, Inc. is high due to the low barriers to entry in the insurance industry and the potential for new companies to disrupt the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Goosehead Insurance, Inc. is high due to the competitive nature of the insurance industry and the presence of established competitors.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 60.28%
Debt Cost 5.11%
Equity Weight 39.72%
Equity Cost 10.46%
WACC 7.23%
Leverage 151.78%

11. Quality Control: Goosehead Insurance, Inc passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Equus Total Return

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 2.7

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World Acceptance

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 4.0

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Texas Community Bancshares

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 9.3

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ICC Holdings

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 7.3

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 6.0

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Goosehead Insurance

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 2.0

Growth: 8.2

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 4.0

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Amerant Bancorp

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

45.03$

Current Price

45.03$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows