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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Gray Television, Inc., a television broadcasting company, owns and/or operates television stations and digital assets in the United States.It also broadcasts secondary digital channels affiliated to ABC, CBS, NBC, and FOX, as well as various other networks and program services, including CW Plus Network, MY Network, the MeTV Network, Justice, This TV Network, Antenna TV, Telemundo, Cozi, Heroes and Icons, and MOVIES! Network; and local news/weather channels in various markets.In addition, the company offers video program production services.


It owns and operates television stations and digital assets that serve 113 television markets in the United States.The company was formerly known as Gray Communications Systems, Inc.and changed its name to Gray Television, Inc.


in August 2002.Gray Television, Inc.was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

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1.b. Last Insights on GTN

Gray Television, Inc.'s recent performance was driven by a series of positive developments. The company's Q4 earnings matched estimates, with a quarterly earnings of $1.59 per share, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Additionally, Gray Media's upgrade to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) reflects growing optimism about its earnings prospects. Furthermore, the company's recent securitization facility increase to $400 million and extension to 2028, as well as the revolving credit facility increase to $700 million, demonstrate its financial strength and ability to manage its debt.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Gray Media's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance with Room for Growth

Gray Media's Q3 2025 revenue reached $749 million, at the high end of guidance, with total operating expenses before depreciation, amortization, impairment, and gain or loss on disposal of assets at $592 million, $17 million below the low end of guidance. The company reported a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $23 million and adjusted EBITDA of $162 million. The actual EPS came out at '-0.24', beating estimates of '-0.41'. The strong revenue performance was partly driven by political advertising revenue, which hit $8 million, above expectations.

Publication Date: Dec -02

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue and Expenses:: Q3 revenue hit $749M (top of guidance), with operating expenses at $592M, $17M below the low end of guidance.
  • Political Advertising:: Generated $8M in revenue, exceeding expectations despite 4Q political revenue ($7–8M) trailing historical averages.
  • Balance Sheet Strength:: Secured $900M in liquidity and extended debt maturities to 2033, with leverage ratios at 2.72x, 3.66x, and 5.77x.
  • Expansion and Dividend:: Aiming for 6 new markets and 11 Big Four duopolies, alongside a $0.08/share quarterly dividend.

Operational Highlights and Future Prospects

The company made significant progress on its balance sheet, extending its maturity profile out to 2033 and finishing the quarter with over $900 million in liquidity. Gray Media's leverage metrics were 2.72x first lien leverage ratio, 3.66x secured leverage ratio, and 5.77x total leverage ratio. The company expects to enter 6 new markets and create 11 new Big Four full duopolies, indicating a strong growth trajectory. Additionally, Gray Media enhanced its local content offerings, renewing its partnership with the Suns and the Mercury, and expanding its sports portfolio.

Guidance and Outlook

Q4 guidance is for core ad revenue to be up low single digits, with October finishing up low double digits and November and December pacing up slightly. Across categories, services like legal, financial, home improvement, supermarkets, and travel and tourism are trending better, and automotive is flattening out at a new run rate down low single digits. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 13.3%, indicating a positive outlook for the company.

Valuation and Return Metrics

Gray Media's current valuation metrics include a P/E Ratio of 2.29, P/B Ratio of 0.16, and EV/EBITDA of 5.66. The company's ROE is 6.99%, and ROIC is 5.35%. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 5.24, indicating a relatively high level of debt. The Dividend Yield is 6.77%, making it an attractive option for income-seeking investors. With a strong growth trajectory and improving operational performance, the current valuation multiples may be justified, but investors should closely monitor the company's ability to reduce debt and improve profitability.

Development Projects and M&A

Assembly Atlanta, a development project, has had a total cost of around $600 million so far. The company expects to get a proper ROI off the spend as it gets fuller lease commitments and joint ventures with partners to create assets. Regarding M&A, the company is focused on previously announced deals and evaluating opportunities to improve the portfolio and balance sheet through sub-$200 million deleveraging deals. Gray Media is also interested in filling gaps in its sports network footprint and acquiring #1 and #2 TV stations.

3. NewsRoom

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Market Today: Deal Talks, Retail Wins, AI Chips, and Crypto Volatility

Dec -02

Source: gurufocus.com

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Broadcast station owners want to consolidate. They're struggling to get deals to the finish line

Dec -02

Source: cnbc.com

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Reviewing Gray Media (NYSE:GTN) and Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX)

Nov -30

Source: defenseworld.net

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Gray Media (NYSE:GTN) and Saga Communications (NASDAQ:SGA) Critical Analysis

Nov -30

Source: defenseworld.net

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Bailard Inc. Buys 24,400 Shares of Gray Media Inc. $GTN

Nov -15

Source: defenseworld.net

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Gray Media Brings Ohio Valley Conference Basketball to Free Over-the-Air Television Viewers

Nov -14

Source: globenewswire.com

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Gray Media Analysts Boost Their Forecasts After Better-Than-Expected Q3 Results

Nov -10

Source: benzinga.com

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Gray Media, Inc. (GTN) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -07

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.19%)

6. Segments

Broadcasting

Expected Growth: 1.2%

Gray Television's 1.2% growth is driven by increasing demand for local news and sports, expansion into new markets, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on digital transformation, including investments in over-the-top (OTT) platforms and mobile apps, has enhanced its reach and engagement. Furthermore, Gray's diversified revenue streams, including retransmission fees and political advertising, have contributed to its growth momentum.

Production Companies

Expected Growth: 0.8%

Gray Television's production companies' 0.8 growth is driven by increasing demand for local content, strategic acquisitions, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, the company's focus on digital transformation, cost savings initiatives, and strong relationships with major networks contribute to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Broadcasting

Gray Television, Inc. owns and operates a diverse group of television stations, offering a range of broadcasting services including news, sports, and entertainment programming.

Digital Media

Gray Television, Inc. offers a suite of digital media services, including website and mobile app development, social media management, and digital advertising solutions.

Production Services

Gray Television, Inc. provides production services, including video production, post-production, and studio services, for a variety of clients and projects.

Network Services

Gray Television, Inc. offers network services, including satellite transmission, fiber connectivity, and data center services, to support the broadcasting and media industries.

8. Gray Television, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Gray Television, Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative media platforms and online streaming services.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Gray Television, Inc. is low due to the fragmented nature of the television broadcasting industry.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Gray Television, Inc. is medium due to the dependence on a few major suppliers for broadcasting equipment and services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Gray Television, Inc. is high due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the television broadcasting industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Gray Television, Inc. is high due to the competitive nature of the television broadcasting industry, with many players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 70.19%
Debt Cost 7.61%
Equity Weight 29.81%
Equity Cost 11.75%
WACC 8.84%
Leverage 235.44%

11. Quality Control: Gray Television, Inc. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Gray Television

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 8.3

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Saga Communications

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 1.9

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Entravision

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 2.7

Quality: 2.2

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
fuboTV

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Beasley Broadcast Group

A-Score: 2.7/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 2.7

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Cumulus Media

A-Score: 2.0/10

Value: 9.0

Growth: 1.0

Quality: 2.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

4.63$

Current Price

4.63$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows