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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Grindr Inc.operates social network platform for the LGBTQ community.Its platform enables gay, bi, trans, and queer people to engage with each other, share content and experiences, and express themselves.


It offers a free, ad-supported service and a premium subscription version.The company was founded in 2009 and is based in West Hollywood, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on GRND

Recent negative drivers behind Grindr Inc.'s performance include a slowdown in paid user adds and a slight margin pullback, leading to a 10+ point deceleration in revenue growth to 24% in FY25. Despite strong Q4 earnings, in line with estimates, the company's guidance disappointed investors. Grindr's focus on product innovation and AI integration is expected to enhance platform stickiness and ARPPU growth, but the near-term outlook is cautious.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Grindr's Q3 2025 Earnings: Strong Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion

Grindr reported a robust third quarter with revenue growth of 30% year-over-year to $116 million, driven by a 25% increase in direct revenue and a 56% rise in indirect revenue. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 2 points to 47%, a record for the company, resulting in adjusted EBITDA of $55 million, up 37% year-over-year. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.16, beating estimates of $0.12. The company's strong financial performance was underpinned by a growing user base, with average monthly active users (MAU) reaching 15.1 million and average paying users totaling 1.3 million, representing a penetration rate of 8.6%. The average revenue per user (ARPU) was $24.70.

Publication Date: Nov -26

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth:: Q3 2025 revenue hit $116 million, +30% YoY, with full-year revenue growth guidance of 26% or more.
  • Adjusted EBITDA:: Q3 adjusted EBITDA reached $55 million (+37% YoY) with a 47% margin, full-year guidance raised to $191–193 million (margin >43%).
  • Subscription Expansion:: Paying users grew to 1.3 million with 8.6% penetration rate; ARPU increased to $24.70.
  • Product Innovations:: AI-driven features like "Right Now" saw 20–25% weekly user engagement, while 75% of users viewed its posts.
  • Free Cash Flow:: Generated $51 million in Q3, reflecting strong operational efficiency and margin expansion.

User Growth and Engagement

Grindr's user KPIs were strong, with the company reporting an average of 1.3 million paying users and 15.1 million MAU. The company's focus on enhancing the user experience through new features like Albums, Boost, and Right Now has contributed to significant user engagement, with over 75% of users viewing Right Now postings at least once a week. As George Arison noted, "With Right Now, our objective was to increase the surface of a free product," which has been successful in driving user engagement.

Pricing Strategy and Premium Tier

Grindr's pricing strategy has been balanced, with the company testing minor price changes that have had a de minimis impact on the paying user base. The company is preparing to launch a new AI-powered premium tier designed for power users, which is expected to drive revenue growth. According to George Arison, 20-50% of Unlimited subscribers could potentially switch to the premium tier, representing a significant revenue opportunity.

Valuation and Outlook

Grindr's valuation metrics indicate a high-growth profile, with a Price-to-Sales Ratio of 5.76 and an EV/EBITDA ratio of -209.77. The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) is 50.02%, highlighting its ability to generate returns on investment. Analysts estimate revenue growth of 21.9% next year, and with the company's expected EBITDA margin range of 39-42% in 2026 and 2027, there is potential for continued margin expansion. With a Free Cash Flow Yield of 6.07%, Grindr's valuation appears reasonable, considering its growth prospects and profitability.

3. NewsRoom

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How Much Upside is Left in GRINDR INC (GRND)? Wall Street Analysts Think 60.99%

Dec -04

Source: zacks.com

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Grindr UNWRAPPED 2025: The Biggest, Boldest & Gayest Year in Review

Dec -04

Source: businesswire.com

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Market Today: Fed hopes lift stocks; AWS AI rollout; Prada-Versace deal

Dec -03

Source: gurufocus.com

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Johnson Fistel Investigates the Grindr Board for Potential Breaches of Fiduciary Duties in the Grindr Buyout Termination

Dec -03

Source: globenewswire.com

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First Look: Airbus trims targets, AWS AI, AEO hikes outlook

Dec -03

Source: gurufocus.com

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Grindr Majority Shareholders Led By Billionaire Raymond Zage Withdraw Buyout Bid

Nov -26

Source: forbes.com

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Grindr's majority shareholders scrap $3.46 billion take-private bid

Nov -26

Source: reuters.com

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George Raymond Zage Ill and James Fu Bin Lu Respond to Grindr Special Committee decision to Cease Engagement on Proposed Take-Private Transaction

Nov -26

Source: prnewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (11.81%)

6. Segments

Direct

Expected Growth: 11.67%

Grindr Inc.'s 11.67% growth is driven by increasing user engagement, successful monetization strategies, and expansion into new markets. The rise of online dating, growing LGBTQ+ acceptance, and improved app features also contribute to its growth. Additionally, strategic partnerships and targeted advertising efforts have helped increase revenue.

Indirect

Expected Growth: 12.7%

Grindr Inc.'s 12.7% growth is driven by increasing user engagement, successful monetization strategies, and expansion into new markets. The rise of online dating, growing LGBTQ+ acceptance, and the app's strong brand recognition also contribute to its growth. Additionally, the company's focus on improving user experience, investing in technology, and strategic partnerships have helped to drive revenue growth.

7. Detailed Products

Grindr

A social networking app for the LGBTQ+ community to connect, chat, and meet new people.

Grindr XTRA

A premium subscription-based service that offers additional features such as ad-free browsing, unlimited profiles views, and more.

Grindr Unlimited

A premium subscription-based service that offers all the features of Grindr XTRA, plus additional features such as incognito mode and custom badges.

Grindr for Equality

A program that focuses on LGBTQ+ advocacy, education, and awareness, providing resources and support for the community.

8. Grindr Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Grindr's unique features and large user base make it difficult for substitutes to emerge, but the threat still exists.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Grindr's users have limited bargaining power due to the app's unique features and lack of alternatives.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Grindr has a low dependence on suppliers, and the cost of switching suppliers is low, giving Grindr the upper hand.

Threat Of New Entrants

The dating app market is highly competitive, and new entrants can easily emerge, posing a significant threat to Grindr's market share.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The dating app market is highly competitive, with many established players, leading to intense rivalry and a high threat to Grindr's market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 105.68%
Debt Cost 5.47%
Equity Weight -5.68%
Equity Cost 5.47%
WACC 5.47%
Leverage -1862.02%

11. Quality Control: Grindr Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Red Violet

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 0.9

Growth: 8.7

Quality: 7.6

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Mitek Systems

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 5.3

Growth: 6.8

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Dave

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 1.1

Growth: 8.0

Quality: 8.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
ON24

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Grindr

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Semrush

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 3.8

Growth: 9.0

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

13.49$

Current Price

13.49$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows