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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Guild Holdings Company, a mortgage company, originates, sells, and services residential mortgage loans in the United States.The company operates approximately 260 branches with licenses in 49 states.It originates residential mortgages through retail and correspondent channels.


The company was incorporated in 1960 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on GHLD

Guild Holdings Company's recent performance was driven by a three-year contract agreement with The New York Times, resolving a week-long strike by over 600 tech workers. This development likely mitigated uncertainty and potential disruption to business operations, creating a positive environment for the company. Additionally, the company's efforts to address labor concerns demonstrate its commitment to employee satisfaction and long-term stability.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Guild Holdings Earnings Report: Strong Financial Performance and Strategic Growth

Guild Holdings delivered a standout performance in 2024, marking its strongest year as a public company. Total originations surged 57% to $24 billion, outpacing the industry's 22% growth. Net revenue reached $1 billion, up 60%, while expenses rose 33%, reflecting the company's aggressive growth strategy. Net income attributable to Guild jumped to $97.1 million, reversing a $39 million loss in 2023. Adjusted net income climbed 88% to $90.2 million, and adjusted EBITDA reached $134.8 million, up 80%. Q4 alone saw originations of $6.7 billion, up 86% year-over-year, with net revenue of $373 million and net income of $98 million. The servicing portfolio also grew to $93 billion, contributing $152 million in net income.

Publication Date: Mar -14

📋 Highlights
  • Strong Financial Performance in 2024: - Guild achieved its best year as a public company, with total originations up 57% to $24 billion, significantly outpacing the industry's 22% growth. Net revenue rose 60% to $1 billion, and net income attributable to Guild reached $97.1 million, compared to a loss of $39 million in 2023.
  • Q4 2024 Mortgage Originations Surge: - Mortgage originations in Q4 reached $6.7 billion, a 86% year-over-year increase. This was driven by strong spring home buying activity and successful integration of recent acquisitions, with loan officer productivity exceeding industry averages.
  • Robust Balance Sheet and Shareholder Returns: - Guild maintained a strong balance sheet with $118 million in cash, $1.3 billion in unutilized funding capacity, and a leverage ratio of 1.7x. The company repurchased $10 million in shares in Q4 and declared a $0.50 special dividend.
  • Strategic Focus on Growth and Innovation: - Guild's strategic initiatives include a focus on purchase originations, customer service, and technology investments. The "Promise of Home" program aims to expand access for first-time homebuyers, while AI enhancements and expanded insurance services are strengthening the customer experience.
  • MSR Retention and Valuation Insights: - MSR retention decreased year-over-year, with retention at 64% in Q4. While the company aims to normalize retention at 80-85%, market conditions remain a factor. MSR valuations were impacted by falling interest rates, but the business model's hedging strategies were emphasized as effective.

Financial Strength and Shareholder Returns

Guild's balance sheet remained robust, with $118 million in cash, $1.3 billion in unused funding capacity, and a leverage ratio of 1.7x. The company repurchased $10 million in shares during Q4 and declared a $0.50 special dividend, signaling confidence in its financial position. "Guild's strategic focus on purchase originations, customer service, and technology investments positions the company for continued growth," noted David Neylan, emphasizing the company's commitment to innovation and customer-centricity. This was further supported by the launch of the Promise of Home program, aimed at expanding access to first-time homebuyers, and AI-driven enhancements to improve the customer experience.

Growth Drivers and Market Position

Guild's growth was driven by strong spring homebuying activity, despite rising interest rates. The company also benefited from the successful integration of recent acquisitions, with loan officer productivity exceeding industry averages. Through February 2025, the company reported $3.1 billion in revenue, reflecting significant quarter-over-quarter growth. This momentum underscores Guild's ability to capitalize on market opportunities and execute its strategic initiatives effectively. Analysts estimate revenue growth of 20.9% for next year, reflecting confidence in Guild's ability to maintain its growth trajectory.

Valuation and Risks

Guild's valuation metrics suggest the market has already priced in much of this growth. The company's trailing P/E ratio of 8.38 and price-to-sales ratio of 0.84 indicate reasonable valuations relative to its peers. However, the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.31 raises some concerns about leverage. The dividend yield of 3.8% provides some downside protection, but the negative free cash flow yield of -82.06% highlights the company's reinvestment strategy. While Guild's strong execution and strategic initiatives are positive signs, investors should monitor the potential impact of rising interest rates on originations and profitability.

3. NewsRoom

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Bayview Completes Acquisition of Guild Holdings Company

Nov -28

Source: businesswire.com

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Bitcoin has been a net buy over the last couple of days, says Robinhood's Stephanie Guild

Nov -24

Source: youtube.com

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Guild Holdings Company (GHLD) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates

Nov -06

Source: zacks.com

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Guild Investment Management Inc. Trims Stake in Apple Inc. $AAPL

Nov -02

Source: defenseworld.net

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Guild Investment Management Inc. Sells 5,895 Shares of NVIDIA Corporation $NVDA

Oct -29

Source: defenseworld.net

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$HAREHOLDER ALERT: The M&A Class Action Firm Announces An Investigation of ODP Corporation (NASDAQ: ODP)

Sep -30

Source: prnewswire.com

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S&P will have a hard time rallying much higher, says Robinhood's Stephanie Guild

Aug -29

Source: youtube.com

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Guild (GHLD) Q2 EPS Jumps 57%

Aug -08

Source: fool.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (7.62%)

6. Segments

Origination

Expected Growth: 7.43%

Guild Holdings Company's 7.43% origination growth is driven by strong demand for mortgage loans, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on digital transformation, improved operational efficiency, and a robust risk management framework have contributed to its growth momentum.

Servicing

Expected Growth: 8.5%

Guild Holdings Company's servicing growth of 8.5% is driven by increasing mortgage originations, strong refinance activity, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, the company's focus on customer retention, efficient operations, and strategic partnerships have contributed to its growth momentum.

All Other

Expected Growth: 4.77%

Guild Holdings Company's 'All Other' segment growth of 4.77% is driven by increasing demand for title insurance and settlement services, expansion into new markets, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on digital transformation and process efficiencies has led to cost savings and improved profitability.

7. Detailed Products

Mortgage Loans

Guild Mortgage offers a wide range of mortgage loan options, including conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, and jumbo loans, to help customers achieve their homeownership goals.

Refinancing Services

Guild Holdings Company offers refinancing services to help customers lower their monthly payments, tap into their home's equity, or switch to a different loan term.

Home Equity Loans

Guild Holdings Company offers home equity loans and lines of credit, allowing customers to tap into their home's equity for home improvements, debt consolidation, or major expenses.

Construction Loans

Guild Holdings Company offers construction loans for customers building a new home, allowing them to finance the construction process and then transition to a permanent mortgage.

Reverse Mortgages

Guild Holdings Company offers reverse mortgages, allowing homeowners 62 and older to tap into their home's equity and receive tax-free cash.

8. Guild Holdings Company's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Guild Holdings Company is moderate due to the presence of alternative financial services providers.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low for Guild Holdings Company due to the lack of concentration of buyers in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is moderate for Guild Holdings Company due to the presence of multiple suppliers in the market.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is high for Guild Holdings Company due to the low barriers to entry in the financial services industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high for Guild Holdings Company due to the presence of multiple competitors in the market.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 62.92%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 37.08%
Equity Cost 9.22%
WACC 5.90%
Leverage 169.68%

11. Quality Control: Guild Holdings Company passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Greystone Housing Impact Investors

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Guild

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 5.1

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 4.0

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Security National Financial

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 6.0

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Velocity Financial

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 5.2

Growth: 7.1

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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UWM Holdings

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 2.2

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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loanDepot

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 2.3

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

20.01$

Current Price

20.01$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows