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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Hillman Solutions Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides hardware-related products and related merchandising services in North America.It offers hardware products, including anchor shackles and eye bolts, door hinges and chains, garage doors, safety hasps, gate hooks and latches, magnets, hooks and storage, corner braces and mending plates, and springs; and fasteners, such as anchors, ball bearings, bolts, kits, nails, nuts, pins, rivets, screws, spacers, threaded inserts, tools/brushes, washers, wire hardware, and other accessories.The company also offers driveway markers/reflectors, numbers, letters, plaques, signs, stencils, survey and flagging tapes, and safety and caution products; threaded rods, aluminum tubes, and slotted and aluminum angles; wall hangings, including frame hardware, hooks, picture hanging, adhesives, mirrors, wires, and accessories, as well as picture hanging and tool-free mounting products; face masks, gloves, and glasses; keys and engravings; and electrical, plumbing, and automotive products and accessories.


It offers its products under the DECK PLUS, GORILLA GRIP, HILLMAN, HARDWARE Essentials, minute key, POWERPRO, OOK, Fas.n.Tite, Distinctions, AWP, OZCO, The Steel Works, and Digz brand names.The company sells its products to hardware stores, home centers, mass merchants, pet supply stores, and other retail outlets, as well as industrial original equipment manufacturers.Hillman Solutions Corp.


was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.

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1.b. Last Insights on HLMN

Here is a 90-word analysis of the negative drivers behind Hillman Solutions Corp.'s recent stock performance: Hillman Solutions Corp.'s recent earnings miss, where it reported $0.10 per share versus the estimated $0.11, has negatively impacted its stock performance. The company's Q4 2024 results were weaker than expected, with revenue also falling short of estimates. Additionally, the company's high interest expense, despite successfully repricing its senior term loan, may be a concern. Furthermore, the lack of share buyback announcements or other positive catalysts has failed to inspire investor confidence.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Hillman's Q3 Earnings: A Strong Performance Amidst a Challenging Environment

Hillman's Q3 financial performance was robust, with revenues coming in at the higher end of expectations. EPS was reported at $0.22, beating analyst estimates of $0.18. The company's gross margin saw a sequential improvement, driven by price cost dynamics, with the RDS business experiencing a 100 basis point increase in the quarter. The Hardware Solutions segment saw a 12.5% price increase, although this was offset by a 33% decrease in volume, as Robert Kraft acknowledged that the price increase has had an impact on customer buying behavior.

Publication Date: Nov -29

📋 Highlights
  • Competitive Advantages Strengthen Market Position: 1,200 sales reps, direct-to-store delivery, and category expertise drive differentiation.
  • Revenue Guidance Reiterated with Growth: $1.535B-$1.575B revenue target reflects 5.6% year-over-year growth.
  • Adjusted EBITDA Guidance Raised: Midpoint increased to $272.5M, up 12.7% compared to prior year.
  • Hardware Solutions Segment Challenges: 12.5% price increase offset by 33% volume decline in the segment.
  • Tariff Management and M&A Outlook: Tariff benefits expected long-term; M&A focus on tuck-in acquisitions post-tariff adjustments.

Revenue Growth and Pricing Strategy

The company's revenue outlook for 2026 is high single to low double digits, assuming a flat market. Robert Kraft stressed that it's difficult to predict market volumes, but they are cautiously optimistic about the fourth quarter. The pricing strategy has been effective, with customers being fair and understanding of the situation, as Kraft stated that the price increase has played out about as expected.

Operational Performance and Market Outlook

The company's operational performance has been strong, with a high level of customer retention and satisfaction driving sales and profitability. The team is seeing some green shoots in the market, with certain categories doing decently, and new business wins, including a chain win that has rolled out nicely in 2025. The company's SG&A was elevated in the third quarter due to a significant bonus accrual, but this is expected to normalize in the fourth quarter.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/E Ratio of 46.16 and an EV/EBITDA of 13.71, the market is pricing in a certain level of growth. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 8.1%, which is in line with the company's guidance. The company's ROIC is 3.69%, and ROE is 3.12%, indicating a relatively efficient use of capital. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 4.14, which is expected to come down as the company continues to pay down debt.

Future Prospects and M&A Activity

The company is seeing more inbound interest in M&A activity, particularly in tuck-in acquisitions for their core business, DIY, and Pro segments. Robert Kraft believes that interest rates and a more settled tariff environment will help in 2026. The company's guidance for 2026 assumes a flat market, and they are confident in their outlook, with Jon Adinolfi mentioning that they have several business opportunities they are quoting on and are excited about their new business opportunities that will cascade into 2026.

3. NewsRoom

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Analysts Set Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN) PT at $11.83

Dec -02

Source: defenseworld.net

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Ballast Asset Management LP Purchases 41,592 Shares of Hillman Solutions Corp. $HLMN

Dec -01

Source: defenseworld.net

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Critical Contrast: Hillman Solutions (NASDAQ:HLMN) & OneConstruction Group (NASDAQ:ONEG)

Nov -19

Source: defenseworld.net

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Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -04

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) Surpasses Q3 Earnings Estimates

Nov -04

Source: zacks.com

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State of New Jersey Common Pension Fund D Buys 64,429 Shares of Hillman Solutions Corp. $HLMN

Nov -02

Source: defenseworld.net

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Reviewing Hillman Solutions (NASDAQ:HLMN) & Everus Construction Group (NYSE:ECG)

Oct -20

Source: defenseworld.net

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Hillman Sets Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Release and Results Presentation Date

Oct -14

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.70%)

6. Segments

Hardware and Protective Solutions

Expected Growth: 3.5%

Hillman Solutions Corp.'s Hardware and Protective Solutions segment growth of 3.5% is driven by increasing demand for DIY and home improvement projects, rising popularity of e-commerce platforms, and strategic partnerships with leading retailers. Additionally, the company's focus on product innovation, expansion into new markets, and effective supply chain management contribute to its growth momentum.

Robotics and Digital Solutions

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Hillman Solutions Corp's Robotics and Digital Solutions segment growth of 4.5% is driven by increasing demand for automation and digital transformation in industries, government investments in Industry 4.0, and rising adoption of robotics in e-commerce and logistics. Additionally, advancements in AI and machine learning are fueling growth in digital solutions, leading to increased efficiency and productivity.

Canada

Expected Growth: 3.8%

Canada's 3.8% growth driven by strong domestic demand, government investments in infrastructure, and a rebound in energy sector. Additionally, a highly skilled workforce, favorable business environment, and proximity to the US market support Hillman Solutions Corp.'s growth in the region.

7. Detailed Products

Fasteners

Hillman Solutions Corp. offers a wide range of fasteners, including nuts, bolts, screws, and rivets, designed for various industrial applications.

Anchor Systems

Hillman's anchor systems provide secure fastening solutions for concrete, masonry, and drywall applications.

Threaded Rods

Hillman's threaded rods are designed for heavy-duty applications, offering high strength and durability.

Rivets

Hillman's rivets are designed for permanent fastening, offering high strength and resistance to corrosion.

Screws

Hillman's screws are designed for various applications, including wood, metal, and drywall fastening.

Nails

Hillman's nails are designed for various applications, including framing, finishing, and roofing.

Adhesives

Hillman's adhesives are designed for bonding various materials, including wood, metal, and plastic.

8. Hillman Solutions Corp.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Hillman Solutions Corp. is moderate due to the availability of alternative solutions in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is high due to the concentration of buyers in the market, giving them significant negotiating power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is low due to the availability of multiple suppliers in the market, reducing their negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is moderate due to the moderate barriers to entry in the market, making it possible for new companies to enter the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the high competition in the market, with many companies competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 42.00%
Debt Cost 6.29%
Equity Weight 58.00%
Equity Cost 12.55%
WACC 9.92%
Leverage 72.42%

11. Quality Control: Hillman Solutions Corp. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Graham

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 3.3

Growth: 7.9

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Kennametal

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Eastern

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Starrett

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 6.9

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Acacia Research

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Hillman Solutions

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

8.82$

Current Price

8.82$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows