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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Hologic, Inc.develops, manufactures, and supplies diagnostics products, medical imaging systems, and surgical products for women's health through early detection and treatment in the United States, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally.It operates through four segments: Diagnostics, Breast Health, GYN Surgical, and Skeletal Health.


The company provides Aptima molecular diagnostic assays to detect the infectious microorganisms; Aptima viral load tests for HIV, Hepatitis C, and Hepatitis B; Aptima SARS-CoV-2 and Panther Fusion SARS-CoV-2 assays for the detection of SARS-CoV-2; ThinPrep System for use in cytology applications; Rapid Fetal Fibronectin Test that assists physicians in assessing the risk of pre-term birth; and various diagnostic tests for the detection of Group B Streptococcus.It also offers breast imaging and analytics, such as 2D and 3D digital mammography systems and reading workstations, minimally invasive breast biopsy guidance systems and devices, breast biopsy site markers and localization, specimen radiology, and ultrasound and connectivity solutions; and breast conserving surgery products.In addition, the company provides NovaSure Endometrial Ablation System for the treatment of abnormal uterine bleeding; MyoSure Hysteroscopic Tissue Removal System for the removal of fibroids, polyps, and other pathology within the uterus; and Fluent Fluid Management System that provides liquid distention during diagnostic and operative hysteroscopic procedures.


Further, it offers Horizon DXA, a dual energy X-ray system; and the Fluoroscan Insight FD mini C-arm to perform minimally invasive orthopedic surgical procedures.The company sells its products through direct sales and service forces, and independent distributors and sales representatives.Hologic, Inc.


was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Marlborough, Massachusetts.

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1.b. Last Insights on HOLX

Hologic's recent performance was driven by its strong Q4 earnings and revenue beat, with operating margin expansion. The company's quarterly earnings of $1.13 per share exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.1 per share. A buyout deal by Blackstone and TPG also contributed to the positive momentum. Additionally, the company's solid financial results and growth prospects are likely to support its business, particularly in the Diagnostics segment. The company's upcoming earnings report and potential for margin expansion are key factors to watch.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Hologic's Q3 FY2025: A Mixed Bag with Strength in Diagnostics

Hologic's third-quarter fiscal 2025 revenue came in at $1.024 billion, a 0.4% growth that exceeded guidance. Non-GAAP earnings per share reached $1.08, a 1.9% increase, and also surpassed guidance. The Diagnostics business grew nicely, with revenue of $448.9 million, up 0.9% or 2.9% organically excluding COVID-related sales. Molecular Diagnostics led the growth with a 2.4% increase globally and 7.3% in the US, driven by strong sales of BV, CV/TV assay, and Panther Fusion assays.

Publication Date: Jul -31

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth: Hologic reported $1.024 billion in Q3 revenue, a 0.4% year-over-year increase, exceeding guidance.
  • Earnings Performance: Non-GAAP EPS reached $1.08, a 1.9% increase, surpassing guidance and reflecting strong profitability.
  • Diagnostics Growth: Diagnostics revenue grew 0.9% to $448.9 million, with organic growth of 2.9% excluding COVID-related sales.
  • Breast Health Performance: Breast Health revenue declined 5.8% to $365.2 million but showed sequential improvement and beat internal expectations.
  • Surgical Business Expansion: Surgical revenue increased 6.3% to $178.4 million, driven by 24.8% international growth, highlighting strong global demand.

Segment Performance

The Breast Health revenue declined 5.8% to $365.2 million, but grew sequentially and finished slightly ahead of internal expectations. Interventional sales increased 31.8%, driven by Endomagnetics, which contributed nearly $20 million in revenue. Surgical revenue grew 6.3% to $178.4 million, led by international growth of 24.8%. Skeletal Health revenue was $31.3 million, up 62.1%, as the company resumed shipping its DEXA model.

Margins and Guidance

Non-GAAP gross margin was 60.3%, and operating margin was 30.1%. The company expects to return to solid mid-single-digit organic revenue growth next year and is optimistic about its future. Guidance for fiscal Q4 and the full year will be provided, with the company confident in its path and optimistic about its future. The company reported operating cash flow of $343 million and finished the quarter with $1.88 billion in cash and short-term investments.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/E ratio of 26.9 and a P/S ratio of 4.94, the stock seems to be trading at a premium. However, with a strong track record of execution and a positive outlook, the stock may be worth the premium. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 4.9%, which is in line with the company's guidance. The actual EPS of $1.08 relative to estimates of $1.05 is a positive surprise.

Management's Commentary

According to the company's management, "We feel good about the trends in Breast Health and expect it to be a strong driver in the next few years." The company expects diagnostics to grow within the mid-single-digit range in 2026, driven by the growth of molecular, BV, CV/TV, and Biotheranostics.

Tariff Impacts and Mitigation

The company has made progress in mitigating tariff impacts and now expects to incur $10 million to $12 million in tariffs per quarter. The company continues to evaluate the situation and has levers in place to manage potential future impacts.

3. NewsRoom

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Edgestream Partners L.P. Has $1.92 Million Stock Holdings in Hologic, Inc. $HOLX

Dec -06

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Hologic's BCI Test Shows Growing Impact in Endocrine Therapy Decisions

Dec -04

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Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership Acquires 606,782 Shares of Hologic, Inc. $HOLX

Dec -03

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New Data to be Presented at the 2025 SABCS Demonstrates Potential Expanded Utility of the Breast Cancer Index Test, the Leading Biomarker in Personalizing Endocrine Therapy Duration

Dec -02

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HOLX vs. DGX: Which Healthcare Diagnostics Stock Is the Better Bet?

Nov -27

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New Clinical Evidence Bolsters Hologic's Breast Cancer Technologies

Nov -26

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New Clinical Evidence on Hologic's AI-Powered Mammography Solutions Will Be Unveiled at RSNA

Nov -25

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Hologic's GYN Surgical Delivers a Standout Quarter: What's Behind It?

Nov -21

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.81%)

6. Segments

Diagnostics

Expected Growth: 5.5%

Hologic's diagnostics segment growth is driven by increasing demand for molecular diagnostics, women's health testing, and COVID-19 testing. Expanding product portfolios, strategic acquisitions, and partnerships also contribute to growth. Additionally, increasing adoption of digital and data analytics solutions, and growing need for early disease detection and prevention fuel segment growth.

Breast Health

Expected Growth: 6.2%

Hologic's Breast Health segment growth of 6.2% is driven by increasing adoption of 3D mammography, growth in biopsy and breast surgery products, and expansion in international markets. Additionally, the company's investments in digital breast tomosynthesis and artificial intelligence are enhancing its product offerings, contributing to the segment's growth.

GYN Surgical

Expected Growth: 5.8%

Hologic's GYN Surgical segment growth of 5.8% is driven by increasing adoption of minimally invasive procedures, rising demand for women's health services, and expanding market share of NovaSure and MyoSure products. Additionally, strategic partnerships and investments in emerging markets contribute to the segment's growth.

Skeletal Health

Expected Growth: 5.9%

Hologic's Skeletal Health segment growth of 5.9% is driven by increasing adoption of its Horizon DXA systems, expansion in osteoporosis and fracture risk assessment markets, and growing demand for vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) and body composition analysis. Additionally, strategic partnerships and innovative product launches, such as the Omni™ and Apex™ DXA systems, contribute to the segment's growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

3D Mammography

Hologic's 3D mammography systems use low-dose X-rays to produce high-resolution 3D images of the breast tissue, allowing for earlier detection and more accurate diagnosis of breast cancer.

Breast Biopsy Systems

Hologic's breast biopsy systems use advanced imaging technology to guide minimally invasive biopsies, allowing for accurate diagnosis and treatment of breast abnormalities.

Molecular Diagnostics

Hologic's molecular diagnostics products use advanced DNA technology to detect and diagnose infectious diseases, including HPV, chlamydia, and gonorrhea.

Surgical Instruments

Hologic's surgical instruments are designed for minimally invasive gynecologic and orthopedic procedures, including hysteroscopic and laparoscopic surgeries.

MyoSure Hysteroscopic Tissue Removal System

Hologic's MyoSure system is a minimally invasive procedure for removing intrauterine fibroids and polyps, allowing for quick recovery and minimal scarring.

Aptima Molecular Diagnostics

Hologic's Aptima molecular diagnostics products use advanced DNA technology to detect and diagnose infectious diseases, including chlamydia, gonorrhea, and HPV.

8. Hologic, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Hologic, Inc. operates in the medical devices industry, which has a moderate threat of substitutes. While there are alternative medical devices available, they may not be as effective or efficient as Hologic's products.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Hologic, Inc. has a diverse customer base, including hospitals, clinics, and medical research institutions. However, the bargaining power of customers is relatively low due to the specialized nature of Hologic's products.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Hologic, Inc. relies on a network of suppliers for raw materials and components. While there are some alternative suppliers available, the bargaining power of suppliers is moderate due to the specialized nature of the components required.

Threat Of New Entrants

The medical devices industry has high barriers to entry, including significant research and development costs, regulatory hurdles, and the need for specialized expertise. This makes it difficult for new entrants to enter the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The medical devices industry is highly competitive, with several established players competing for market share. Hologic, Inc. faces intense competition from companies such as Siemens Healthineers, GE Healthcare, and Philips Healthcare.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 35.97%
Debt Cost 5.85%
Equity Weight 64.03%
Equity Cost 9.01%
WACC 7.87%
Leverage 56.17%

11. Quality Control: Hologic, Inc. passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Merit Medical Systems

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 2.6

Growth: 7.3

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Hologic

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 2.9

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Haemonetics

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 5.1

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Teleflex

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Repligen

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 0.2

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Cooper

A-Score: 2.9/10

Value: 2.9

Growth: 1.2

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

74.93$

Current Price

74.93$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows