ICF International, Inc. (ICFI) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

ICF International, Inc.provides management, marketing, technology, and policy consulting and implementation services to government and commercial clients in the United States and internationally.It researches critical policy, industry, stakeholder issues, trends, and behaviors; measures and evaluates results and their impact; and provides strategic planning and advisory services to its clients on how to navigate societal, market, business, communication, and technology challenges.

The company also identifies, defines, and implements policies, plans, programs, and business tools through a range of standard and customized methodologies for its clients; conducts survey research; collects and analyzes various data to understand critical issues and options for its clients; and provides actionable business intelligence, as well as information and data management solutions that allow integrated and purpose-driven data usage.In addition, it provides solutions to optimize the customer and citizen experience; modernizes IT systems; and cyber security solutions that support the range of cyber security missions and protect IT infrastructures in the face of relentless threats, as well as designs, develops, and implements technology systems and business tools that are principal to its clients' mission or business performance.Further, the company informs and engages its clients' constituents, customers, and employees through public relations, branding and marketing, multichannel and strategic communications, and reputation issues management.

It serves energy, environment, and infrastructure; health, education, and social programs; safety and security; and consumer and financial markets.The company was formerly known as ICF Consulting Group Holdings, LLC and changed its name to ICF International, Inc.in 2006.

ICF International, Inc.was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Fairfax, Virginia.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on ICFI

ICF International's recent performance was negatively impacted by its Q4 earnings and revenue miss, with earnings of $1.47 per share, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.53 per share. Weak Q1 2026 EPS guidance further concerns investors. Although revenue from commercial, state & local, and international government clients increased 16% in Q4, the company's net income was $17 million, down from $1.87 per share a year ago. ICF's pivot from federal-heavy revenue to commercial clients aims to reduce political risk.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	75.35
Change Percentage	-0.79%
Open	75.95
Previous Close	75.95
Market Cap ( Millions)	1389
Volume	176831
Year High	101.71
Year Low	72.03
M A 50	86.1
M A 200	87.65

FCF Yield	8.65%
Dividend Yield	0.74%
ROE	9.11%
Debt / Equity	55.55%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	281.65%
Price To Book	1.34
Price Earnings Ratio	15.07
Price To FCF	11.56
Price To sales	0.74
EV / EBITDA	9.73

2. ICF International's Resilience Amidst Challenging Conditions

ICF International, Inc.'s fourth quarter and full year 2025 results showcased the company's resilience in the face of challenging conditions. The company reported total revenue of $443.7 million in the fourth quarter, down 10.6% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA of $46 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 10.4%. Non-GAAP EPS came in at $1.47, slightly below estimates of $1.53. For the full year, revenue was $1.87 billion, with non-federal business growing 14.2% year-on-year; adjusted EBITDA totaled $222 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.1%; and non-GAAP EPS was $6.77.

Publication Date: Mar -04

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Non-Federal Revenue Growth:
                                                Non-federal revenues grew 14.2% YoY, driven by 24% surge in commercial energy revenues ($550M), now 33.2% of total revenues.
Commercial Energy Market Share:
                                                Commercial energy business holds 35% residential and 20% commercial/industrial energy efficiency market shares, with $2B-$5B total addressable market.
2026 Revenue Guidance:
                                                Full-year revenue expected to reach $1.89B-$1.96B (3% growth midpoint), with non-federal revenue projected to exceed 60% of total.
Financial Leverage Reduction:
                                                Total debt fell to $401.4M (from $411.7M in 2024), with adjusted leverage ratio dropping to 1.98x (from 2.13x in Q3 2025).
Share Repurchases:
                                                $564,000 shares repurchased in 2025 at $4.4M cost, with $220,000 shares bought in Q4 alone, reducing share count to ~18.5M in 2026.

                                

Segment Performance

The company's federal government business faced difficulties, with revenues declining 25% year-on-year in 2025 due to contract cancellations, slowdown in new procurements, and the six-week government shutdown. However, non-federal revenues grew 14.2% year-on-year, driven by a 24% increase in commercial energy revenues, which reached $550 million and accounted for 33.2% of total revenues. The commercial energy business saw sustained demand for energy efficiency, flexible load management, electrification, and grid optimization programs.

Growth Prospects

ICF International, Inc. expects double-digit revenue growth in commercial energy in 2026, driven by a 35% market share in residential energy efficiency and a 20% share in commercial and industrial energy efficiency. The company expects 2026 revenues from non-federal clients to increase at a double-digit rate, accounting for over 60% of full year 2026 revenues. Federal revenues are expected to decline at a high single-digit rate in 2026, but with sequential improvement throughout the year.

Valuation

Using the current valuation metrics, the company's P/E Ratio stands at 15.51, P/B Ratio at 1.38, and EV/EBITDA at 9.93. The market seems to be pricing in moderate growth expectations. With analysts estimating next year's revenue growth at 5.2%, the current valuation appears reasonable. However, considering the company's strong growth prospects in commercial energy and non-federal business, there may be potential for upside.

Financial Health

The company ended the year with total debt of $401.4 million, down from $411.7 million at the end of 2024, and reduced debt by $48 million in the fourth quarter. The adjusted leverage ratio was 1.98 times at the end of the fourth quarter, down from 2.13 times at the end of the third quarter. The company's financial health appears stable, with a strong backlog and visibility in its disaster recovery business.

Strategic Opportunities

The company is actively looking at acquisitions to add skills and capabilities in growing markets, particularly in energy, state and local disaster recovery, and utility programs. With a leverage ratio under two and capacity for M&A, ICF International is well-positioned to capitalize on strategic opportunities. The company is also leveraging AI to improve efficiency and reduce costs, both internally and externally, which could lead to potential upside in profitability.

3. NewsRoom

ICF to Participate in the Canaccord Genuity Second Annual Virtual Sustainability Summit

Mar -05

Source: prnewswire.com

ICF Stock Declines 5.2% Since Q4 Earnings and Revenue Miss

Mar -05

Source: zacks.com

ICF International: New Year, 'Almost' A New ICF

Mar -02

Source: seekingalpha.com

ICF International, Inc. (ICFI) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -27

Source: seekingalpha.com

ICF International (ICFI) Misses Q4 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Feb -27

Source: zacks.com

ICF Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results

Feb -26

Source: prnewswire.com

Florida Awards ICF Comprehensive Management Services Contract

Feb -23

Source: prnewswire.com

Southern California Edison Awards ICF Energy Efficiency Contract Amendment

Feb -19

Source: prnewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.75%)

6. Segments

Health and Social Programs

Expected Growth: 5.5%

ICF International, Inc.'s Health and Social Programs segment growth of 5.5% is driven by increasing government spending on healthcare and social services, rising demand for healthcare consulting services, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, the company's expertise in areas such as Medicaid, Medicare, and the Affordable Care Act is contributing to its growth.

Energy, Environment, Infrastructure and Disaster Recovery

Expected Growth: 5.8%

ICF International, Inc.'s 5.8% growth driven by increasing demand for energy efficiency and renewable energy solutions, growing concerns over climate change and environmental sustainability, investments in infrastructure development and modernization, and rising need for disaster recovery and resilience planning.

Security and Other Civilian & Commercial

Expected Growth: 6.2%

ICF International's Security and Other Civilian & Commercial segment growth of 6.2% is driven by increasing government spending on cybersecurity, disaster response, and energy efficiency initiatives. Additionally, growing demand for digital transformation services, environmental consulting, and public health programs also contribute to the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Advisory and Implementation Services

ICF provides advisory and implementation services to help clients navigate complex policy, program, and project challenges.

Digital Transformation Services

ICF offers digital transformation services to help clients modernize their operations, improve customer experience, and increase efficiency.

Survey Research and Analytics

ICF provides survey research and analytics services to help clients gather insights, measure program effectiveness, and inform policy decisions.

IT and Cloud Services

ICF offers IT and cloud services to help clients modernize their infrastructure, improve cybersecurity, and enhance operational efficiency.

Environmental and Infrastructure Services

ICF provides environmental and infrastructure services to help clients navigate complex environmental regulations, permitting, and project development.

Communications and Engagement Services

ICF offers communications and engagement services to help clients develop effective messaging, build stakeholder support, and promote behavior change.

8. ICF International, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for ICF International, Inc. is moderate due to the presence of alternative consulting services and technology solutions.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low for ICF International, Inc. as the company provides specialized services and solutions that are difficult to substitute.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is moderate for ICF International, Inc. as the company relies on a diverse range of suppliers for its operations.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is high for ICF International, Inc. due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the consulting and technology services industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high for ICF International, Inc. due to the presence of several established players in the consulting and technology services industry.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	33.07%
Debt Cost	5.95%
Equity Weight	66.93%
Equity Cost	7.00%
WACC	6.65%
Leverage	49.41%

11. Quality Control: ICF International, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Deb

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Booz Allen Hamilton

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 5.5

Growth: 7.7

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Worthington Industries

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Exponent

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 1.2

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 8.2

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

ICF International

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

FTI Consulting

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 3.5

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

TransUnion

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 2.4

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

-3.07%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

6.65%

ICF International, Inc. - US44925C1036

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on ICFI

1.c. Company Highlights

Less Volatile

Fairly Valued

Stable Momentum

Earnings Beats

Revenues Beats

Average Yield

Medium Volatility

Strong Momentum

Earnings Miss

Revenues Miss

Average Quality

Weak Momentum

Average Growth

2. ICF International's Resilience Amidst Challenging Conditions

Segment Performance

Growth Prospects

Valuation

Financial Health

Strategic Opportunities

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.75%)

6. Segments

Health and Social Programs

Expected Growth: 5.5%

Energy, Environment, Infrastructure and Disaster Recovery

Expected Growth: 5.8%

Security and Other Civilian & Commercial

Expected Growth: 6.2%

7. Detailed Products

Advisory and Implementation Services

Digital Transformation Services

Survey Research and Analytics

IT and Cloud Services

Environmental and Infrastructure Services

Communications and Engagement Services

8. ICF International, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: ICF International, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

75.35$

Current Price

75.35$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA