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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Kimco Realty Corp.(NYSE:KIM) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) headquartered in Jericho, N.Y. that is one of North America's largest publicly traded owners and operators of open-air, grocery-anchored shopping centers and mixed-use assets.As of September 30, 2020, the company owned interests in 400 U.S. shopping centers and mixed-use assets comprising 70 million square feet of gross leasable space primarily concentrated in the top major metropolitan markets.


Publicly traded on the NYSE since 1991, and included in the S&P 500 Index, the company has specialized in shopping center acquisitions, development and management for more than 60 years.

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1.b. Last Insights on KIM

Kimco Realty Corporation faced negative drivers in recent months. The company's Q3 2025 earnings call revealed a cautious tone, with investors scrutinizing key metrics. Bessemer Group Inc. reduced its stake by 11.6%, selling 2,678 shares. Despite beating Q3 FFO and revenue estimates with $0.44 per share, a slight deceleration in growth raised concerns. Alberta Investment Management Corp acquired a new $5.03 million position, while Campbell & CO Investment Adviser LLC invested $332,000. A- credit rating with a stable outlook from an unspecified source bolstered confidence.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Kimco Realty Corporation: Strong Leasing Momentum and Favorable Supply and Demand Dynamics

Kimco Realty Corporation reported solid fourth-quarter results, driven by robust leasing activity, strong same-site NOI growth, and high single-digit FFO per share growth. The company's FFO for the fourth quarter was $286.9 million or $0.42 per diluted share, representing a per-share increase of 7.7%. The operating portfolio occupancy stood at 96.3%, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 10 basis points. Same-site NOI growth was 4.5% for the fourth quarter, driven by higher minimum rent and lower credit loss.

Publication Date: Feb -10

📋 Highlights
  • Leasing Momentum: - Kimco Realty Corporation reported significant leasing momentum across its portfolio, driven by favorable supply and demand dynamics, leading to strong fundamental results and earnings growth.
  • Strong Q4 Results: - The company finished 2024 with solid fourth-quarter results, highlighted by robust leasing activity, strong same-site NOI growth, and high single-digit FFO per share growth.
  • Balance Sheet Strength: - Kimco's balance sheet remains strong, with consolidated net debt to EBITDA of 5.3 times and on a look-through basis of 5.6 times, and $690 million of cash and full availability of its $2 billion revolving credit facility.
  • 2025 Outlook: - The company's initial 2025 FFO per share outlook range is $1.70 to $1.72, representing an initial per-share growth range of 3% to 4.2%, with same property NOI growth of 2% plus, and credit loss assumption of 75 basis points to 100 basis points.
  • Credit Loss Reserve: - The credit loss reserve is expected to be around $17 million to $22 million, which is within the 75 to 100 basis point range, with a watch list of troubled retailers, including Big Lots, Party City, and Joanne's, which are going through the bankruptcy process.

Transaction Market and Capital Allocation

Ross Cooper highlighted the company's capital allocation achievements during 2024, including the successful integration of the RPT Realty acquisition, which exceeded expectations in all facets. The company also acquired Waterford Lakes Town Center in October and has already started to benefit from the purchase. Cooper mentioned that the company has a pool of long-term ground leases that can be monetized, as well as opportunities for densification and entitlements. Glenn Cohen added that the company expects to generate around $140 million of free cash flow after dividends, CapEx, and TI, which is another pool of capital on the lowest cost.

Balance Sheet and Outlook

The company's balance sheet remains strong, with consolidated net debt to EBITDA of 5.3 times and on a look-through basis of 5.6 times. The company ended the fourth quarter with $690 million of cash and the full availability of its $2 billion revolving credit facility. The 2025 outlook assumes same property NOI growth of 2% plus, with a credit loss assumption of 75 basis points to 100 basis points. The initial 2025 FFO per share outlook range is $1.70 to $1.72, representing an initial per-share growth range of 3% to 4.2%.

Valuation

With a current PE Ratio TTM of 60.91 and a price-to-sales ratio TTM of 9.83, Kimco Realty Corporation appears to be fairly valued. The company's dividend yield percentage TTM of 4.38% and free cash flow yield TTM of 5.9% suggest that investors are being compensated for the current uncertainty in the retail sector. As Conor Flynn mentioned, "We're trying to prioritize the highest returns on our capital and are looking to get creative on structuring entitlements to benefit from the density around shopping centers."

3. NewsRoom

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Kimco Realty: Upgrading To Buy On Improved Valuation And Dividend Growth

Dec -05

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Kimco Earns Credit Rating Upgrade, Boosts Shareholder Confidence

Dec -04

Source: zacks.com

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Kimco Realty® Achieves ‘A3' Credit Rating from Moody's

Dec -03

Source: globenewswire.com

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Cetera Investment Advisers Has $1.43 Million Stock Holdings in Kimco Realty Corporation $KIM

Dec -02

Source: defenseworld.net

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8 'Safer' Dividend Buys In Barron's 23 Better November Bets Than T-Bills

Nov -28

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Kimco Realty Corporation $KIM Shares Sold by B&I Capital AG

Nov -27

Source: defenseworld.net

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Kimco Realty Corporation: Consider The Preferreds

Nov -24

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Trump's 50-Year Mortgage Idea Could Be A Big Gift To REITs

Nov -20

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.37%)

6. Segments

Fixed Lease

Expected Growth: 5%

Kimco Realty's fixed lease growth is driven by increasing demand for retail space, strategic acquisitions, and rent escalations. Additionally, the company's focus on omnichannel retailing, experiential retail, and essential retail services contributes to its growth. Furthermore, Kimco's strong balance sheet and access to capital enable it to capitalize on opportunities, driving fixed lease growth.

Variable Lease

Expected Growth: 7%

Kimco Realty's 7% growth in Variable Lease is driven by increasing demand for e-commerce logistics and last-mile delivery, coupled with strategic acquisitions and expansions in high-growth markets. Additionally, the company's focus on omnichannel retailing and experiential retail has led to increased foot traffic and rental income.

Above-Market and Below-Market Leases Amortization

Expected Growth: 4%

Kimco Realty's 4% growth in Above-Market and Below-Market Leases Amortization is driven by increasing demand for retail spaces, strategic acquisitions, and lease renewal rates. Additionally, the company's focus on omni-channel retailing and experiential retail experiences attracts high-quality tenants, contributing to the growth.

Management and Other

Expected Growth: 5%

Kimco Realty's 5% growth in Management and Other segment is driven by increasing demand for property management services, expansion of its third-party management business, and growth in its investment management platform. Additionally, the company's focus on cost savings initiatives and strategic investments in technology have contributed to improved operational efficiency and enhanced profitability.

Adjustments for Potentially Uncollectible Revenues and Disputed Amounts

Expected Growth: 3%

Kimco Realty's 3% growth is driven by strategic lease renewals, rent increases, and expansion of its grocery-anchored portfolio. Additionally, the company's focus on mixed-use development and redevelopment of existing properties contributes to its growth. Effective management of potentially uncollectible revenues and disputed amounts also supports its financial performance.

7. Detailed Products

Grocery-Anchored Shopping Centers

Kimco Realty Corporation owns and operates grocery-anchored shopping centers, providing a convenient and essential shopping experience for local communities.

Mixed-Use Developments

Kimco Realty Corporation develops and manages mixed-use projects, combining retail, residential, and office spaces to create vibrant and dynamic communities.

Power Centers

Kimco Realty Corporation owns and operates power centers, featuring a mix of big-box retailers, restaurants, and entertainment options.

Lifestyle Centers

Kimco Realty Corporation develops and manages lifestyle centers, offering a unique blend of retail, dining, and entertainment options in an outdoor setting.

Net Lease Properties

Kimco Realty Corporation owns and operates single-tenant net lease properties, providing long-term, stable income streams.

8. Kimco Realty Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Kimco Realty Corporation operates in a highly competitive industry, but the threat of substitutes is mitigated by the company's diversified portfolio of properties and its ability to adapt to changing market conditions.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Kimco Realty Corporation's customers have limited bargaining power due to the company's strong market position and the lack of alternative options for retail space.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Kimco Realty Corporation's suppliers have some bargaining power due to the company's reliance on them for materials and services, but the company's scale and diversification mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the real estate industry, including the need for significant capital and expertise.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The real estate industry is highly competitive, and Kimco Realty Corporation faces intense rivalry from other REITs and real estate companies, which can lead to downward pressure on rents and occupancy rates.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 46.53%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 53.47%
Equity Cost 11.18%
WACC 7.81%
Leverage 87.03%

11. Quality Control: Kimco Realty Corporation passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Brixmor Property Group

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 4.2

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 7.9

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 9.0

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Regency Centers

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 2.9

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 6.7

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 10.0

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Phillips Edison

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 3.0

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 7.0

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Agree Realty

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 2.8

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 6.7

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 10.0

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Kite Realty Trust

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 9.0

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Kimco Realty

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 3.3

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

20.08$

Current Price

20.08$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows