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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, and markets human pharmaceuticals worldwide.It offers Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, and Humulin U-500 for diabetes; and Jardiance, Trajenta, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes.The company provides Alimta for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and malignant pleural mesothelioma; Cyramza for metastatic gastric cancer, gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma, metastatic NSCLC, metastatic colorectal cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers, and various head and neck cancers; Retevmo for metastatic NSCLC, medullary thyroid cancer, and thyroid cancer; Tyvyt for relapsed or refractory classic Hodgkin's lymph and non-squamous NSCLC; and Verzenio for HR+, HER2- metastatic breast cancer, node positive, and early breast cancer.


It offers Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis; and Taltz for plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis.The company offers Cymbalta for depressive disorder, diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain, generalized anxiety disorder, fibromyalgia, and chronic musculoskeletal pain; Emgality for migraine prevention and episodic cluster headache; and Zyprexa for schizophrenia, bipolar I disorder, and bipolar maintenance.Its Bamlanivimab and etesevimab, and Bebtelovimab for COVID-19; Cialis for erectile dysfunction and benign prostatic hyperplasia; and Forteo for osteoporosis.


The company has collaborations with Incyte Corporation; Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; AbCellera Biologics Inc.; Junshi Biosciences; Regor Therapeutics Group; Lycia Therapeutics, Inc.; Kumquat Biosciences Inc.; Entos Pharmaceuticals Inc.; and Foghorn Therapeutics Inc.Eli Lilly and Company was founded in 1876 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

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1.b. Last Insights on LLY

Breaking News: Eli Lilly and Company's recent earnings release showed revenue and EPS growth exceeding guidance, despite a price cut in Zepbound in Q4 2025. The company's weight loss portfolio brought in over $11 billion in revenue. Guidance for 2026 remains positive. However, a fuller impact of price cuts and potential acquisition impact on earnings are expected to be visible later. Analysts view the positives as outweighing concerns, with some caution warranted. Recommendations include a buy.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Eli Lilly's Strong 2025 Results and Promising 2026 Outlook

Eli Lilly reported robust 2025 results, with revenue surging 45% to $65.2 billion and earnings per share increasing 86% to $24.21. The company's Q4 revenue grew 43%, driven by the strong performance of key products like Mounjaro and Zepbound. The actual EPS of $7.54 exceeded estimates of $6.91, demonstrating the company's momentum.

Publication Date: Feb -05

📋 Highlights
  • 2025 Revenue Growth: Surged 45% to $65.2B, driven by Mounjaro and Zepbound (43% Q4 growth).
  • Earnings Per Share (EPS): Rose 86% to $24.21, with 2026 guidance of $33.50–$35.
  • 2026 Revenue Forecast: Targeted at $80–83B (25% YoY growth), led by Mounjaro, Zepbound, and orforglipron launch.
  • Phase III Pipeline: 36 active programs, including retreutide (29% weight loss in trials) and orforglipron (FDA submission for obesity).
  • Direct-to-Patient Pricing: Zepbound at $2.99/month for Medicare Part D, with orforglipron expected to expand market access at $50/month.

Financial Performance

The company's financial performance was impressive, with revenue growth driven by industry-leading volume growth. The company's guidance for 2026 revenue is between $80 billion and $83 billion, representing 25% growth. The expected earnings per share range is $33.50 to $35, indicating continued strong bottom-line growth.

Product Performance

Key products, including Mounjaro and Zepbound, drove growth in cardiometabolic health, with Zepbound revenue more than doubling compared to Q4 2024. The company's investment in innovation is evident, with 36 active Phase III programs and plans to initiate new programs in 2026. The positive clinical data in over 25 phase three trials is a testament to the company's research and development capabilities.

Valuation

With a P/E Ratio of 53.93, P/B Ratio of 41.73, and EV/EBITDA of 40.53, the market has priced in significant growth expectations. The company's ROE of 102.26% and ROIC of 28.6% indicate strong profitability. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 16.4%, which is lower than the expected 25% growth guided by the company.

Pipeline Updates

The company made significant progress in R&D, with updates in immunology, oncology, and neuroscience. The advancement of new GIP GLP-1 agonist, presenphatide, into a phase II study of asthma and the initiation of trials exploring the use of incretins to treat substance use disorders and psychiatric conditions demonstrate the company's commitment to innovation.

Launch Expectations

The company expects significant uptake in the oral market with orforglipron, launching soon with a similar entry price to oral semaglutide. Management expressed enthusiasm for the potential of orforglipron, assuming a Q2 launch, and believes it will be market-expansive and bring new people to therapy for obesity.

Guidance and Outlook

The company's guidance for 2026 is optimistic, with expected revenue growth driven by Mounjaro, Zepbound, and the launch of orforglipron. The management team discussed the company's recent performance and future prospects, highlighting the potential of its pipeline and the expected impact of its direct-to-consumer platform, Lilly Direct.

3. NewsRoom

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LLY Expands Cell Therapy Ambitions With $2.4B Orna Therapeutics Deal

Feb -10

Source: zacks.com

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Novo Nordisk vs. Eli Lilly: What's the Better Long-Term Investment?

Feb -09

Source: fool.com

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Jefferies Group Exits Vanguard Information Technology ETF, Impacting Portfolio by -8.06%

Feb -09

Source: gurufocus.com

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3 Safety-First ETFs to Retire in Comfort

Feb -09

Source: 247wallst.com

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Eli Lilly Bets $2.4 Billion On Small Biotech To Boost Future Cell Treatments

Feb -09

Source: benzinga.com

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Eli Lilly to Buy Biotech Orna Therapeutics for Up to $2.4 Billion

Feb -09

Source: wsj.com

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2 stocks to hit $1 trillion market cap in Q1 2026

Feb -09

Source: finbold.com

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Eli Lilly Pays $350 Million Upfront in China Biotech Collaboration Deal

Feb -09

Source: gurufocus.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.50%)

6. Segments

Discovery, Dev., Manufacturing, Marketing, and Sales of Pharmaceutical Products

Expected Growth: 8.5%

Eli Lilly's pharmaceutical products development and sales are driven by increasing demand for diabetes and oncology treatments, strategic M&A, and a strong pipeline of innovative products

7. Detailed Products

Humulin

Humulin is a brand of insulin medication used to treat diabetes. It is a human insulin analog that helps to regulate blood sugar levels.

Alimta

Alimta is a chemotherapy medication used to treat malignant pleural mesothelioma and non-small cell lung cancer.

Cymbalta

Cymbalta is a selective serotonin and norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor (SSNRI) used to treat depression, anxiety, and chronic pain.

Forteo

Forteo is a parathyroid hormone used to treat osteoporosis in postmenopausal women and men.

Humalog

Humalog is a fast-acting insulin analog used to treat diabetes.

Jardiance

Jardiance is a sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor used to treat type 2 diabetes.

Olumiant

Olumiant is a Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitor used to treat rheumatoid arthritis.

Portrazza

Portrazza is a monoclonal antibody used to treat non-small cell lung cancer.

Reyvow

Reyvow is a serotonin receptor agonist used to treat acute migraine.

Trulicity

Trulicity is a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist used to treat type 2 diabetes.

Verzenio

Verzenio is a cyclin-dependent kinase (CDK) 4/6 inhibitor used to treat breast cancer.

8. Eli Lilly and Company's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Eli Lilly and Company faces moderate threat from substitutes due to the presence of alternative treatments and generic drugs in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low due to the lack of price sensitivity and the importance of patented drugs in the treatment of chronic diseases.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is moderate due to the presence of multiple suppliers of raw materials and the company's ability to negotiate prices.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry, including the need for significant investments in research and development and regulatory approvals.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the presence of established players in the pharmaceutical industry, leading to intense competition for market share and pricing pressure.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 70.08%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 29.92%
Equity Cost 5.80%
WACC 4.50%
Leverage 234.18%

11. Quality Control: Eli Lilly and Company passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Gilead Sciences

A-Score: 6.8/10

Value: 3.3

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 9.3

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 8.3

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Pfizer

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 5.6

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Amgen

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 2.9

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Merck

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 4.6

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 8.2

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Bristol-Myers Squibb

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Lilly

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 0.0

Growth: 7.1

Quality: 7.5

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

1025.0$

Current Price

1025$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows