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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Lincoln Educational Services Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides various career-oriented post-secondary education services to high school graduates and working adults in the United States.The company operates in two segments: Transportation and Skilled Trades, and Healthcare and Other Professions.It offers associate's degree, and diploma and certificate programs in automotive technology; skilled trades programs, including electrical, heating and air conditioning repair, welding, computerized numerical control, and electrical and electronic systems technology; health science programs comprising nursing, dental and medical assistant, claim examiner, medical administrative assistant, etc.; hospitality services programs, such as culinary, therapeutic massage, cosmetology, and aesthetics; and information technology programs.


The company operates 22 schools in 14 states under the Lincoln Technical Institute, Lincoln College of Technology, Lincoln Culinary Institute, Euphoria Institute of Beauty Arts and Sciences, and other brand names.As of December 31, 2021, it had 13,059 students enrolled at 22 campuses.The company was founded in 1946 and is based in Parsippany, New Jersey.

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1.b. Last Insights on LINC

Lincoln Educational Services Corporation faces challenges due to high capital expenditures, which fuel growth but raise concerns about near-term free cash flow and sustainability of returns. Despite this, management's aggressive expansion reflects confidence in long-term demand for skilled trades education. The company's Q2 earnings beat estimates, with quarterly earnings of $0.09 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.04 per share. According to Zacks, the stock is considered a strong buy.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Lincoln Tech's Strong Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results Set Stage for Continued Growth

Lincoln Tech reported a robust fourth quarter and full-year 2025, with revenue growing 21.4% to $142.9 million and 19.7% to $518.2 million, respectively. The company's adjusted EBITDA rose 60% to $67.1 million, and adjusted net income increased 64% to $28.4 million. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.2, beating estimates of $0.12. The strong financial performance was driven by a 17% increase in average student population and a 3.7% increase in revenue per student.

Publication Date: Feb -24

📋 Highlights

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was equally impressive, with student starts growing 15.7% in Q4 and 15.2% for the full year. Lincoln Tech's focus on skilled trades and automotive programs paid off, with these segments growing 23% in the quarter and year. The company's graduation rate declined to 67.5%, while its placement rate increased to 82.8%. As Scott Shaw, likely a senior executive, noted, "We're optimistic about our revenue growth, and we believe our numbers are achievable."

Guidance and Outlook

Lincoln Tech provided guidance for 2026, expecting revenue to grow to $580-590 million, adjusted EBITDA to reach $72-76 million, and net income to range from $20-23 million. The company anticipates continued growth in student starts, with a range of 8-13%. Analysts estimate revenue growth at 8.9% for next year, indicating a relatively stable growth trajectory.

Valuation and Metrics

Lincoln Tech's current valuation metrics include a P/E Ratio of 51.12, P/B Ratio of 5.12, and P/S Ratio of 2.02. The company's EV/EBITDA stands at 40.25, indicating a relatively high multiple. The ROE is 10.75%, and ROIC is 5.75%. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 5.78, suggesting a significant debt burden. These metrics suggest that the market is pricing in strong growth expectations, and the company's ability to deliver on its guidance will be crucial in justifying its current valuation.

3. NewsRoom

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Lincoln Educational: Solid Growth, Less Attractive Entry Point (Rating Downgrade)

Feb -25

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Lincoln Educational Services Corporation (LINC) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -23

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Lincoln Educational Services Corporation (LINC) Beats Q4 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Feb -23

Source: zacks.com

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Lincoln Educational Services' Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results Exceed Financial Guidance; Continued Strong Growth Forecasted for 2026

Feb -23

Source: globenewswire.com

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APEI or LINC: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?

Feb -18

Source: zacks.com

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Lincoln Educational Services Corporation (NASDAQ:LINC) Given Consensus Recommendation of “Buy” by Brokerages

Feb -18

Source: defenseworld.net

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Lincoln Educational Services Corporation Schedules Fourth Quarter and Year End 2025 Earnings Release and Conference Call

Feb -17

Source: globenewswire.com

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Lincoln Tech Celebrates Grand Opening in Houston, TX

Feb -16

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.01%)

6. Segments

Campus Operations

Expected Growth: 8%

Campus Operations at Lincoln Educational Services Corporation is driven by increasing demand for vocational training, strategic campus expansions, and effective cost management. Additionally, the company's focus on high-growth fields such as healthcare and technology, coupled with strong industry partnerships, contributes to its 8% growth.

Transitional

Expected Growth: 10%

Lincoln Educational Services Corporation's 10% growth is driven by increasing demand for skilled trades, strategic acquisitions, and expansion into high-growth markets. Additionally, the company's focus on providing in-demand programs, such as healthcare and technology, and its strong employer partnerships contribute to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Automotive Technology

Lincoln Educational Services Corporation offers Automotive Technology programs that provide students with the skills and knowledge needed to diagnose and repair vehicles.

Skilled Trades

The Skilled Trades program at Lincoln Educational Services Corporation prepares students for careers in electrical, HVAC, and welding.

Health Sciences

Lincoln Educational Services Corporation's Health Sciences programs include nursing, dental assisting, and medical assisting.

Business and IT

The Business and IT programs at Lincoln Educational Services Corporation offer training in business administration, accounting, and information technology.

Culinary Arts

Lincoln Educational Services Corporation's Culinary Arts program teaches students cooking techniques, kitchen management, and food safety.

Transportation and Diesel Technology

The Transportation and Diesel Technology program at Lincoln Educational Services Corporation prepares students for careers in diesel engine repair, truck driving, and automotive technology.

8. Lincoln Educational Services Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Lincoln Educational Services Corporation is medium due to the availability of alternative education providers and online courses.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low due to the specialized nature of Lincoln Educational Services Corporation's programs and the lack of price sensitivity among students.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is medium due to the availability of alternative suppliers for educational materials and services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is high due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the education industry and the increasing popularity of online learning platforms.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the competitive nature of the education industry and the presence of established players.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 41.18%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 58.82%
Equity Cost 10.59%
WACC 7.85%
Leverage 70.01%

11. Quality Control: Lincoln Educational Services Corporation passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
American Public Education

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 8.6

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
American Public Education

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Universal Technical Institute

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 7.0

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Lincoln Educational Services

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 4.2

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Coursera

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 7.5

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 2.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Udemy

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

36.83$

Current Price

36.83$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows