Mesa Air Group, Inc. (MESA) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Mesa Air Group, Inc.operates as the holding company for Mesa Airlines, Inc.that provides regional air carrier services under capacity purchase agreements with the American Airlines and the United Airlines.

It also engages in leasing aircrafts to third parties.As of September 30, 2021, the company operated a fleet of 167 aircraft, which include 153 owned aircrafts and 14 leased aircrafts with approximately 507 daily departures to 129 cities in the United States and Mexico.Mesa Air Group, Inc.

was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on MESA

Mesa Air Group's recent performance has been driven by positive developments, including the sale of 18 Embraer jets to United Airlines for $229.1 million, which will be used to reduce debt. Additionally, the company's declaration of a regular quarterly dividend of $0.16 per share demonstrates its commitment to returning value to shareholders. These moves are expected to improve the company's financial health and increase investor confidence.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	19.19
Change Percentage	2.68%
Open	18.77
Previous Close	18.69
Market Cap ( Millions)	4
Volume	32697
Year High	25.8
Year Low	1.35
M A 50	21.24
M A 200	17.21

FCF Yield	-1491.11%
Dividend Yield	0.00%
ROE	415.20%
Debt / Equity	-195.86%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	-46.56%
Price To Book	-0.07
Price Earnings Ratio	-0.02
Price To FCF	-0.07
Price To sales	0.01
EV / EBITDA	-0.49

2. Transcript Summary

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3. NewsRoom

Mesa Air Group Reports Results for the Three and Nine Months Ended September 30, 2025

Nov -21

Source: globenewswire.com

Mesa Air Group Shareholders Approve Merger with Republic Airways

Nov -18

Source: globenewswire.com

Mesa Air Group enters into an Amendment to its Loan Agreement with the United States Treasury and Provides Update to its Pending Merger with Republic Airways

Oct -31

Source: globenewswire.com

Mesa Air Group Files Registration Statement on Form S-4 and S-1 in Connection with Proposed Merger with Republic Airways Holdings Inc.

Jul -23

Source: globenewswire.com

MESA LABS DECLARES QUARTERLY DIVIDEND

Jul -03

Source: globenewswire.com

LAZYDAYS AND GENERAL RV COMPLETE MESA, ARIZONA TRANSACTION

May -23

Source: prnewswire.com

Mesa Air Group Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2025 Results

May -20

Source: globenewswire.com

Mesa Air Group Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2025 Results

May -19

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (12.31%)

6. Segments

Contract

Expected Growth: 12.0%

Mesa Air Group, Inc.'s 12.0% growth is driven by increasing demand for regional air travel, expansion of code-share agreements with major airlines, and cost savings from fleet modernization. Additionally, the company's focus on operational efficiency, improved aircraft utilization, and growing revenue from its cargo business also contribute to its growth momentum.

Pass-through and Other

Expected Growth: 14.0%

Mesa Air Group's 14.0% growth in Pass-through and Other segment is driven by increased demand for capacity purchase agreements, expansion of existing contracts, and higher revenue from aircraft leasing. Additionally, the company's diversification into new markets and growth in its third-party MRO services also contributed to the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Passenger Airline Services

Mesa Air Group provides passenger airline services to various destinations, offering safe and reliable transportation to passengers.

Cargo Airline Services

Mesa Air Group offers cargo airline services, transporting goods and packages for various clients, including e-commerce companies and logistics providers.

Flight Training Services

Mesa Air Group provides flight training services to aspiring pilots, offering a comprehensive training program to prepare them for a career in aviation.

Aircraft Leasing Services

Mesa Air Group offers aircraft leasing services, providing airlines and other operators with access to a fleet of aircraft for short- or long-term use.

8. Mesa Air Group, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Mesa Air Group, Inc. operates in a niche market, providing regional air services to major airlines. While there are substitutes available, such as other regional airlines, the company's strong relationships with major airlines and its expertise in providing regional air services mitigate the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Mesa Air Group, Inc.'s customers are primarily major airlines, which have limited bargaining power due to their reliance on the company's regional air services. Additionally, the company's long-term contracts with these airlines further reduce the bargaining power of customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Mesa Air Group, Inc. relies on a few suppliers for aircraft and maintenance services. While the company has some bargaining power due to its size and long-term contracts, suppliers still have some leverage, particularly in the current market where demand for aircraft and maintenance services is high.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the regional air services market. New entrants would need to invest heavily in aircraft, maintenance infrastructure, and training, making it difficult for them to compete with established players like Mesa Air Group, Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The regional air services market is highly competitive, with several players competing for contracts with major airlines. Mesa Air Group, Inc. faces intense competition from other regional airlines, which can lead to downward pressure on prices and profit margins.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	73.01%
Debt Cost	9.90%
Equity Weight	26.99%
Equity Cost	18.48%
WACC	12.22%
Leverage	270.46%

11. Quality Control: Mesa Air Group, Inc. passed 1 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Deb

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Air Transport Services Group

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Sun Country Airlines

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 6.7

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Mesa Air

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 0.8

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Blade Air Mobility

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 3.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Wheels Up Experience

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 9.4

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Frontier

A-Score: 2.8/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 2.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

17.37%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

12.22%

Mesa Air Group, Inc. - US5904791358

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on MESA

1.c. Company Highlights

Lower Growth

Cheaper

More Volatile

Earnings Miss

Revenues Beats

Lower Quality

Revenues Miss

Medium Volatility

2. Transcript Summary

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (12.31%)

6. Segments

Contract

Expected Growth: 12.0%

Pass-through and Other

Expected Growth: 14.0%

7. Detailed Products

Passenger Airline Services

Cargo Airline Services

Flight Training Services

Aircraft Leasing Services

8. Mesa Air Group, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Mesa Air Group, Inc. passed 1 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

19.19$

Current Price

19.19$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA