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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

MAA, an S&P 500 company, is a real estate investment trust, or REIT, focused on delivering full-cycle and superior investment performance for shareholders through the ownership, management, acquisition, development and redevelopment of quality apartment communities in the Southeast, Southwest, and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States.As of December 31, 2020, MAA had ownership interest in 102,772 apartment units, including communities currently in development, across 16 states and the District of Columbia.

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1.b. Last Insights on MAA

Mid-America Apartment Communities' recent performance was negatively impacted by persistent supply and demand headwinds, muted rental inflation, and higher-for-longer interest rates. The company's Q2 results reflected steady Sunbelt demand but faced headwinds from rent cuts and higher borrowing costs. MAA's same-store NOI declined year-over-year, driven by lower rent. Despite this, the company maintains a strong balance sheet and financial flexibility, positioning it for opportunistic acquisitions. A recent rating upgrade to "buy" cites an attractive 4.3% yield and solid income prospects.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. MAA's Q4 Earnings: A Strong Recovery in Sight

MAA's fourth quarter core FFO results met expectations, with same-store blended lease-over-lease performance 40 basis points stronger year-over-year, indicating a recovery in fundamentals is underway. The company's actual EPS came out at $2.23, beating estimates of $2.22. Same-store NOI was in line with guidance, with same-store revenues $0.01 unfavorable due to other revenues and pricing, offset by same-store expenses favorable by $0.01 due to office operations, repair and maintenance, and real estate taxes.

Publication Date: Feb -17

📋 Highlights
  • Core FFO Guidance for 2026:: Expected to range between $8.35 to $8.71 per share, with a midpoint of $8.53.
  • Blended Lease Rate Improvement:: Projected 110–160 bps increase and 85 bps higher effective rent growth in 2026 compared to 2025.
  • Development Pipeline Growth:: $932 million pipeline, with development yields at 6–6.5% despite oversupply pressures.
  • Renewal Performance:: 2% above pro forma with a $180–$185 premium over new leases and 5%–5.25% renewal pricing range.
  • Cap Rate Spreads:: Core assets trading at 4.6% cap rates vs. 5.25–5.5% for value-add properties (50–75 bps spread).

Guidance and Outlook

MAA expects to see a 110 to 160 basis point improvement in blended lease rates and an 85 basis point improvement in effective rent growth compared to 2025. The company projects 2026 same-store revenue growth midpoint of 0.55% and core FFO for 2026 to be $8.35 to $8.71, or $8.53 per share at the midpoint. As Tim Argo mentioned, "We expect absorption to remain consistent" as new deliveries decline, and market level occupancies have seen significant improvement over the past year.

Operational Highlights

MAA's residents value the company's communities and exceptional service, reflected in record retention levels, strong renewal rates, and sector-leading resident Google scores, averaging 4.7 out of 5 for the year. The company's renewal rates are 2% above pro forma, and it's seeing consistent take rates and performance on renewals. The dollar premium on renewals versus new leases is around $180-$185, with an $80 renewal increase.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/E Ratio of 35.48 and an expected revenue growth rate of 3.3% next year, MAA's valuation appears to be pricing in moderate growth expectations. The company's Dividend Yield is 4.48%, which is attractive for income investors. As MAA continues to invest in repositioning and redevelopment projects, with strong returns from these investments, the company's long-term earnings growth prospects appear promising.

Market Trends and Risks

MAA is seeing robust investor appetite for assets in its region, with a strong transaction market expected in 2026. However, there's uncertainty around new lease rates due to lease-ups predominantly leasing at new rates in the first year. The company is confident in the demand picture, with factors like job growth, migration, household formation, and population growth contributing to a solid foundation.

3. NewsRoom

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I'm Buying These 2 High-Conviction Deeply Discounted Picks Yielding 5-7%

17:10

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Mid-America Apartment: Cheap Enough To Buy (Rating Upgrade)

Mar -15

Source: seekingalpha.com

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4 'Safer' Dividend Buys In Barron's 23 Better March Bets Than T-Bills

Mar -14

Source: seekingalpha.com

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First Trust Advisors LP Reduces Stock Holdings in Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. $MAA

Mar -13

Source: defenseworld.net

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Why REITs Haven't Recovered Just Yet

Mar -03

Source: seekingalpha.com

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MAA Announces Regular Quarterly Preferred Dividend

Mar -02

Source: prnewswire.com

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Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) Presents at Citi's Miami Global Property CEO Conference 2026 Transcript

Mar -02

Source: seekingalpha.com

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MAA to Participate in the 2026 Citi Global Property CEO Conference

Feb -27

Source: prnewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.56%)

6. Segments

Same Store

Expected Growth: 2.5%

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s 2.5% same-store growth is driven by a combination of factors, including a strong job market, increasing wages, and low unemployment rates, leading to higher demand for apartments. Additionally, the company's focus on amenity-rich properties and strategic revenue management initiatives have contributed to the growth.

Non-Same Store and Other

Expected Growth: 3.5%

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s 3.5% growth in Non-Same Store and Other segment is driven by strategic acquisitions, expansion into high-growth markets, and value-add initiatives. Additionally, the segment benefits from a strong demand for multifamily housing, favorable demographics, and a limited supply of new apartments, leading to increased occupancy and rental rates.

7. Detailed Products

Apartment Rentals

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. offers a range of apartment rentals across the United States, providing residents with a comfortable and convenient living experience.

Property Management Services

The company provides property management services to property owners, including marketing, leasing, and maintenance of properties.

Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Services

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. operates as a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), providing a way for individuals to invest in a diversified portfolio of apartments and other properties.

Development and Construction Services

The company offers development and construction services, including land acquisition, development, and construction of new apartment communities.

8. Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. operates in the real estate industry, which has relatively low substitutability. While there are alternative housing options, such as single-family homes, the demand for apartments is consistent, and the company's focus on luxury apartments provides a unique selling proposition.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's focus on luxury apartments and high-quality amenities limits the ability of customers to negotiate prices.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. relies on various suppliers for materials, labor, and services. While the company has some bargaining power due to its size, suppliers still have some negotiating power, particularly in markets with limited competition.

Threat Of New Entrants

The real estate industry has significant barriers to entry, including high capital requirements, regulatory hurdles, and the need for expertise in property management. These barriers limit the threat of new entrants and provide Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. with a relatively stable competitive landscape.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The real estate industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. faces intense competition from other apartment REITs, which drives up marketing and operational costs.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 45.30%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 54.70%
Equity Cost 7.88%
WACC 6.10%
Leverage 82.81%

11. Quality Control: Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Invitation Homes

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Growth: 6.3

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 10.0

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Essex Property Trust

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Growth: 5.6

Quality: 6.7

Yield: 7.0

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Camden Property

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 3.0

Growth: 4.2

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Yield: 7.0

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Mid-America Apartment Communities

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 2.8

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 10.0

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UDR

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 2.3

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 9.7

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Apartment Income REIT

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 4.4

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 3.3

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

128.09$

Current Price

128.09$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows