Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally.Its respiratory vaccines include COVID-19, flu, respiratory syncytial virus, Endemic HCoV, and hMPV+PIV3 vaccines; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, human immunodeficiency virus, herpes simplex virus, and varicella-zoster virus vaccines; and public health vaccines consists of Zika and Nipah vaccines.The company also offers systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics; cancer vaccines, such as personalized cancer, KRAS, and checkpoint vaccines; intratumoral immuno-oncology products; localized regenerative, systemic intracellular, and inhaled pulmonary therapeutics.


It has strategic alliances with AstraZeneca PLC; Merck & Co., Inc.; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; Carisma Therapeutics, Inc.; Metagenomi, Inc.; the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as a collaboration and license agreement with Chiesi Farmaceutici S.P.A. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc.and changed its name to Moderna, Inc.in August 2018.


Moderna, Inc.was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on MRNA

Breaking News: Moderna Inc has settled a global patent litigation with Arbutus Genevant for $950 million with no future royalties. The deal resolves all worldwide litigation related to Spikevax and mRESVIA and provides certainty for Moderna's infectious disease portfolio. The company expects a charge in Q1 2026 and now forecasts 2026 year-end cash and cash equivalents to be $4.5 - $5.0 billion. This settlement clears Moderna's vaccine pipeline. Analysts at TD Cowen have not changed their recommendation yet but some other analysts give a buy recommendation.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Moderna's 2025 Earnings: A Closer Look at the Numbers

Moderna, Inc.'s 2025 revenue stood at $1,900,000,000, driven primarily by COVID vaccine sales, including Spikevax and MNEXT Spike. The company reported a net loss for the year of $2,800,000,000, despite a significant decrease in operating expenses by $2,200,000,000, or 30%. The earnings per share (EPS) came out at '-0.51', significantly better than the estimated '-1.87'. The company's cash and investments stood at $8,100,000,000 at the end of 2025. With a P/E Ratio of -5.87 and a P/S Ratio of 8.49, the market seems to be pricing in a certain level of growth.

Publication Date: Feb -14

📋 Highlights
  • 2025 Revenue Growth:: Moderna generated $1.9 billion in revenue, driven by Spikevax and MNEXT Spike vaccine sales, despite a $2.8 billion net loss.
  • Cost Reduction:: Operating expenses fell by 30% ($2.2 billion decrease), contributing to a $6 billion cash balance at year-end.
  • 2026 Revenue Outlook:: Anticipates up to 10% revenue growth ($~2.09 billion), with 85% expected in the second half, driven by international markets and MNEXT Spike.
  • Cost Projections for 2026:: Projects $900 million in cost of sales, $3 billion in R&D, and $1 billion in SG&A, with gross margin improvements from manufacturing efficiency.
  • 2027 Growth Drivers:: Targets $1.8 billion in European respiratory vaccines and new partnerships in Latin America and Asia-Pacific, alongside regulatory approvals for flu and cancer therapies.

Guidance for 2026

Moderna expects total revenue growth of up to 10% in 2026, primarily driven by international markets, with a balanced geographic mix between the U.S. and international markets. The company anticipates revenue to be weighted to the second half of the year, with approximately 15% of revenue in the first half and 85% in the second half. Cost of sales is projected to be approximately $900,000,000, with a gross margin rate improvement from manufacturing efficiency gains and volume leverage.

Pipeline Progress

The company has made significant progress on its pipeline, including approvals for MNEXT Spike in Canada and Australia and the approval of its strain-updated Spikevax COVID vaccine in the U.K. Moderna is also progressing with its phase 3 studies in adjuvant non-small cell lung cancer and phase 2 trials in non-muscle invasive bladder cancer, first-line metastatic melanoma, and first-line metastatic squamous non-small cell lung cancer.

Valuation Metrics

With a ROE of -30.15% and a ROIC of -29.7%, Moderna's current valuation metrics indicate that the market is pricing in a certain level of risk. The company's EV/EBITDA ratio stands at -5.67, and the Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 0.5. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 19.0%, which may be a factor in the current valuation.

Future Growth Drivers

Moderna's commercial outlook for 2026 includes growth driven by strategic partnerships and the second year of launch for MNEXT Spike. For 2027, growth drivers include the $1,800,000,000 European respiratory vaccines market, new multiyear strategic agreements in Latin America and Asia Pacific, and the acceptance of flu filings in Europe, Canada, and Australia. Stéphane Bancel mentioned that the company is confident in its phase 2 study for RCC being potentially registrational, depending on the data.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

Moderna Pops After Inking $950 Million Covid Vaccine Settlement

Mar -03

Source: investors.com

Card image cap

Moderna's stock rallies more than 10% as deal over a patent dispute clears vaccine pipeline

Mar -03

Source: marketwatch.com

Card image cap

Moderna Stock Jumps 10% After Hours: Here's Why

Mar -03

Source: feeds.benzinga.com

Card image cap

Moderna to Pay $950 Million to Settle Patent Cases From Arbutus, Genevant

Mar -03

Source: wsj.com

Card image cap

Moderna agrees to pay up to $2.25 billion to settle COVID vaccine patent dispute

Mar -03

Source: reuters.com

Card image cap

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Presents at TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference Transcript

Mar -03

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

Moderna Resolves Global Patent Litigation with Arbutus/Genevant

Mar -03

Source: accessnewswire.com

Card image cap

Moderna Stock (MRNA): Is It a Buy Now? 7 Questions After the Crash

Mar -02

Source: investorplace.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (16.70%)

6. Segments

Biotechnology

Expected Growth: 16.7%

The biotechnology segment is expected to grow at 16.7% due to the increasing demand for mRNA-based therapeutics and vaccines, driven by the company's diversified pipeline and potential for future product approvals. The segment's growth will be fueled by ongoing clinical trials and partnerships, as well as the expanding use of mRNA technology in various therapeutic areas. This growth rate reflects the segment's potential for long-term success and its position in the rapidly evolving biotechnology industry.

7. Detailed Products

mRNA-1273 (COVID-19 Vaccine)

A vaccine against COVID-19, encoding for a prefusion stabilized spike protein

mRNA-4157 (Vaccine against VEGF-A)

A vaccine against vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGF-A), a protein involved in angiogenesis

mRNA-4151 (Vaccine against OX40L)

A vaccine against OX40L, a protein involved in T cell activation and immune response

mRNA-528 (Vaccine against IL-23)

A vaccine against interleukin-23 (IL-23), a protein involved in autoimmune diseases

mRNA-2752 (Vaccine against CMV)

A vaccine against cytomegalovirus (CMV), a common viral infection

mRNA-1647 (Vaccine against RSV)

A vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), a common cause of respiratory illness

8. Moderna, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Moderna's mRNA technology provides a unique value proposition, making it difficult for substitutes to emerge.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

While customers have some bargaining power due to the availability of alternative vaccine options, Moderna's strong brand reputation and innovative products mitigate this force.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Moderna has a diversified supplier base, reducing dependence on individual suppliers and minimizing the bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the development of mRNA technology, attracting new entrants to the market, increasing competition, and posing a significant threat to Moderna's market share.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The COVID-19 vaccine market is highly competitive, with multiple players vying for market share, leading to intense rivalry and pricing pressure.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 8.23%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 91.77%
Equity Cost 11.75%
WACC 11.11%
Leverage 8.97%

11. Quality Control: Moderna, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 8.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Praxis Precision Medicines

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 7.9

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Immunome

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Vertex Pharmaceuticals

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 1.5

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 8.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
G1 Therapeutics

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Moderna

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 2.3

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

49.83$

Current Price

49.83$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows