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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally.Its respiratory vaccines include COVID-19, flu, respiratory syncytial virus, Endemic HCoV, and hMPV+PIV3 vaccines; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, human immunodeficiency virus, herpes simplex virus, and varicella-zoster virus vaccines; and public health vaccines consists of Zika and Nipah vaccines.The company also offers systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics; cancer vaccines, such as personalized cancer, KRAS, and checkpoint vaccines; intratumoral immuno-oncology products; localized regenerative, systemic intracellular, and inhaled pulmonary therapeutics.


It has strategic alliances with AstraZeneca PLC; Merck & Co., Inc.; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; Carisma Therapeutics, Inc.; Metagenomi, Inc.; the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as a collaboration and license agreement with Chiesi Farmaceutici S.P.A. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc.and changed its name to Moderna, Inc.in August 2018.


Moderna, Inc.was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

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1.b. Last Insights on MRNA

Moderna's recent performance was driven by strong Q4 2025 earnings and revenue beat, exceeding Wall Street expectations. The company posted a net loss of $2.11 per share on revenue of $678 million, compared with analysts' consensus of a $2.60 loss on revenue near $660 million. This positive guidance and smaller-than-expected loss sent shares up about 11% on Friday. Additionally, the company's expanding pipeline, including its mRNA-based flu shot, has generated significant interest and optimism among investors. The stock has recorded a 6-day winning streak, accumulating gains of 25% during this time, with the company's market capitalization increasing by approximately $4.0 billion over the past 6 days.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Moderna Q1 2026: Revenue Upswing Amid Litigation Shock

Moderna’s first‑quarter revenue surged to $0.4 billion, a $300 million year‑over‑year jump largely driven by a new long‑term partnership with the U.K. government. Despite the headline loss of $0.5 billion (excluding a $1.3 billion Arbutus litigation settlement), the company’s GAAP net loss was $1.3 billion, reflecting the settlement charge. EPS fell to –$3.4 versus analysts’ –$3.02, underscoring the impact of the one‑time litigation expense (Moderna 2026 Q1 Earnings Call). Cash and investments stood at $7.5 billion, providing a solid balance‑sheet cushion. Valuation metrics reveal a P/E of –5.61 and a P/B of 2.42, indicating the market still prices in significant upside potential from the mRNA platform expansion.

Publication Date: May -02

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth:: Q1 2026 revenue surged to $0.4 billion, up $300 million YoY, driven by UK partnership execution.
  • Net Loss Adjustments:: Non-GAAP net loss of $0.5 billion vs. GAAP $1.3 billion, excluding $1.3 billion Arbutus litigation charge.
  • Cash Reserves:: $7.5 billion cash/investments reported, with $4.5–$5 billion expected by year-end despite $1.8 billion cost of sales (including $0.9 billion litigation charge).
  • Pipeline Milestones:: mComvriax (flu+COVID) and mRESVIA approved in EU; Phase III Intismeran trial initiated for non-small cell lung cancer.
  • 2026 Guidance:: Revenue projected at $4.4–$5.1 billion (50% U.S./50% international), with 10% growth driven by mNEXSPIKE and partnerships.

Revenue Drivers

The $0.4 billion top line is anchored by the U.K. partnership and the EU approval of the flu‑plus‑COVID combo, mComvriax. International sales now represent roughly half of total revenue, a shift that mitigates U.S. market concentration risks. The company’s 2026 guidance of $4.4–$5.1 billion, up to 10% YoY, relies on continued growth of mNEXSPIKE and new product launches.

Profitability & Losses

Net losses were driven by a $1.3 billion litigation settlement and increased cost of sales to $1.8 billion. R&D spending is projected at $3 billion, while SG&A is expected to hover near $1 billion. These costs are offset by the company’s robust cash position, but the negative earnings underscore the importance of managing one‑off expenses in the earnings narrative.

Cash Position & Balance Sheet

With $7.5 billion in cash and investments, Moderna can comfortably fund its pipeline and strategic initiatives. The company projects ending 2026 cash of $4.5–$5 billion, aligning with a low Net Debt/EBITDA of 0.22 and a negative ROIC of –37.52, reflecting the heavy upfront R&D outlays typical of a growth biotech.

Pipeline & Partnerships

Key milestones include EU approval of mRESVIA and the launch of a Phase III trial for Intismeran in non‑small cell lung cancer. The company also announced a new Phase III Intismeran study for high‑risk Stage 1 small‑cell lung cancer, leveraging a strong efficacy signal and safety profile. Additional approvals across the respiratory portfolio are expected in other geographies.

Guidance & Outlook

Moderna reiterated its 2026 revenue growth guidance of up to 10%, with a 50/50 U.S.‑international mix. The company expects to see Phase III readouts for Intismeran and other oncology programs in 2026–2027, potentially reshaping its long‑term revenue streams. Investor events at ASCO (June 1) and Science Day (June 25) will provide further clarity on pipeline progress.

Valuation Snapshot

Current valuation ratios—P/E –5.61, P/B 2.42, P/S 8.09, EV/EBITDA –5.75—highlight a market that is still discounting Moderna’s earnings due to the ongoing litigation and negative cash flow from R&D. However, the strong cash base and projected 10% revenue growth suggest that the stock may be poised for a rebound once the litigation outcome resolves and new products gain traction.

3. NewsRoom

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Moderna Inc (MRNA) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strategic Growth Amidst Legal Challenges

May -02

Source: gurufocus.com

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Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

May -01

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Stock Market Today, May 1: Tech Stocks Soar on Apple Earnings

May -01

Source: fool.com

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Moderna Reports Q1 Loss, Stock Jumps on Strong International Sales

May -01

Source: zacks.com

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Is Moderna (MRNA) Overvalued After Q1 2026? EPS -$3.40 Miss vs -$2.17 Est; Revenue $389M Beat vs $130.62M Est -- GF Score 62/100, 137.8% Overvalued

May -01

Source: gurufocus.com

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Moderna reports mixed Q1 results as revenue beats estimates but litigation charge weighs on earnings

May -01

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

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Moderna Q1 Earnings: Revenue Beat Overshadowed By Litigation Charge, Pipeline Drives Outlook

May -01

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Moderna Sales Triple To $389 Million As Shares Rise 5.4%

May -01

Source: gurufocus.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (16.70%)

6. Segments

Biotechnology

Expected Growth: 16.7%

The biotechnology segment is expected to grow at 16.7% due to the increasing demand for mRNA-based therapeutics and vaccines, driven by the company's diversified pipeline and potential for future product approvals. The segment's growth will be fueled by ongoing clinical trials and partnerships, as well as the expanding use of mRNA technology in various therapeutic areas. This growth rate reflects the segment's potential for long-term success and its position in the rapidly evolving biotechnology industry.

7. Detailed Products

mRNA-1273 (COVID-19 Vaccine)

A vaccine against COVID-19, encoding for a prefusion stabilized spike protein

mRNA-4157 (Vaccine against VEGF-A)

A vaccine against vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGF-A), a protein involved in angiogenesis

mRNA-4151 (Vaccine against OX40L)

A vaccine against OX40L, a protein involved in T cell activation and immune response

mRNA-528 (Vaccine against IL-23)

A vaccine against interleukin-23 (IL-23), a protein involved in autoimmune diseases

mRNA-2752 (Vaccine against CMV)

A vaccine against cytomegalovirus (CMV), a common viral infection

mRNA-1647 (Vaccine against RSV)

A vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), a common cause of respiratory illness

8. Moderna, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Moderna's mRNA technology provides a unique value proposition, making it difficult for substitutes to emerge.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

While customers have some bargaining power due to the availability of alternative vaccine options, Moderna's strong brand reputation and innovative products mitigate this force.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Moderna has a diversified supplier base, reducing dependence on individual suppliers and minimizing the bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the development of mRNA technology, attracting new entrants to the market, increasing competition, and posing a significant threat to Moderna's market share.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The COVID-19 vaccine market is highly competitive, with multiple players vying for market share, leading to intense rivalry and pricing pressure.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 8.23%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 91.77%
Equity Cost 11.75%
WACC 11.11%
Leverage 8.97%

11. Quality Control: Moderna, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 8.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Praxis Precision Medicines

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 7.9

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Immunome

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Vertex Pharmaceuticals

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 1.5

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 8.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
G1 Therapeutics

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Moderna

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 2.3

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

45.37$

Current Price

45.37$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows