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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Murphy USA Inc.engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise.The company operates retail stores under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands.


As of December 31, 2021, it operated 1,679 retail gasoline stores principally in the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest United States.The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas.

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1.b. Last Insights on MUSA

Murphy USA's recent performance was negatively impacted by higher costs and weaker volumes. The company's Q3 earnings revealed a net income of $129.9 million, or $6.76 per diluted share, down from $149.2 million, or $7.20 per diluted share, in Q3 2024. A restructuring charge of $12.6 million also affected the quarter. Additionally, Ethic Inc. and Teacher Retirement System of Texas trimmed their holdings in the company by 24.3% and 10.1%, respectively. Weaker fuel sales and revenue shortfall were also reported.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Murphy USA's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance Amidst Challenging Fuel Margins

Murphy USA reported a solid third-quarter 2025 financial performance, with EBITDA reaching $285 million, virtually flat compared to the prior year. Fuel margins were $0.307, stronger than expected in the low price environment. The company's total margin contribution dollars increased by 11.2% year-over-year, driven by a 20% growth in nicotine categories. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $7.25, beating analyst estimates of $6.6. The company's merchandise sales continued to drive growth, with center store categories increasing by 5%. According to Mindy West, "the company is making significant strides in reducing loss prevention and holding labor expense steady, resulting in a lower cost structure."

Publication Date: Nov -02

📋 Highlights
  • Leadership Transition:: Andrew Clyde retires as CEO in 2025, succeeded by Mindy West in 2026, ensuring continuity in strategic priorities.
  • Capital Allocation Commitment:: $2 billion share repurchase program authorized through 2030 and 10% annual dividend growth, maintaining a 50-50 balance between reinvestment and shareholder returns.
  • Q3 Financial Performance:: $285M EBITDA (flat YoY) with $0.307 fuel margins (up 11.2% in total margin contribution) and 20% YoY nicotine category growth driving merchandise sales.
  • New Store Momentum:: 45+ new-to-industry stores projected in 2025, with 50+ expected in 2026, supported by $0.32 retail-only fuel margins in October and 2% volume growth YoY.
  • Guidance Refinements:: 2025 fuel volume guidance adjusted to 235-237K gallons/store/month, and merchandise contribution narrowed to $870M–$875M, reflecting strong promotional execution and cost efficiency.

Operational Highlights

Murphy USA is committed to new store growth, primarily through its new-to-industry store program, and opportunistic small-scale M&A opportunities. The company expects to open roughly 40 new stores in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 combined, positioning them for 50-plus stores in 2026 and beyond. The new store development program is continuing to make excellent progress, with 8 new stores brought into service and 11 raze-and-rebuilds in Q3 2025.

Capital Allocation and Guidance

The company reaffirmed its 50-50 balanced capital allocation strategy, raising the quarterly dividend by 19% and authorizing a new $2 billion share repurchase program. Murphy USA expects to continue growing the dividend payout 10% annually. For 2025, the company adjusted its full-year fuel volume guidance to between 235,000 to 237,000 gallons per store per month and tightened its merchandise contribution dollars guidance to between $870 million and $875 million.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/E Ratio of 14.47 and an EV/EBITDA of 9.93, Murphy USA's valuation appears reasonable. The company's ROE stands at 68.49%, indicating strong profitability. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 3.4%. Given the company's commitment to its capital allocation strategy and its strong operational performance, Murphy USA is well-positioned for future growth.

3. NewsRoom

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Murphy USA Inc. $MUSA Shares Purchased by Creative Planning

Dec -01

Source: defenseworld.net

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Ceredex Value Advisors LLC Takes Position in Murphy USA Inc. $MUSA

Nov -29

Source: defenseworld.net

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AXQ Capital LP Purchases Shares of 730 Murphy USA Inc. $MUSA

Nov -25

Source: defenseworld.net

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Teacher Retirement System of Texas Cuts Stake in Murphy USA Inc. $MUSA

Nov -05

Source: defenseworld.net

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Murphy USA Q3 Earnings Top Estimates as Merchandise Shines

Nov -04

Source: zacks.com

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Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Oct -30

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Murphy USA Inc. $MUSA Stock Holdings Trimmed by Ethic Inc.

Oct -30

Source: defenseworld.net

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Murphy USA: Attractive Despite Management Turnover

Oct -30

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.50%)

6. Segments

Marketing

Expected Growth: 5.5%

Murphy USA Inc.'s 5.5% marketing growth driven by increasing fuel efficiency, strategic partnerships, and effective loyalty programs. Additionally, the company's focus on digital transformation, including mobile payments and personalized offers, has enhanced customer experience and retention. Furthermore, Murphy USA's expansion into new markets and optimization of store layouts have contributed to the growth.

Corporate and Other Assets

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Murphy USA Inc.'s Corporate and Other Assets segment growth of 4.5% is driven by strategic investments in digital transformation, expansion of food and beverage offerings, and optimization of store layouts, resulting in increased foot traffic and higher average transaction values. Additionally, the company's focus on cost savings initiatives and effective inventory management have contributed to improved profitability.

7. Detailed Products

Fuel

Murphy USA Inc. operates a chain of retail fuel stations, offering a range of fuel products including gasoline, diesel, and alternative fuels.

Convenience Store Items

Murphy USA operates convenience stores, offering a variety of food, beverages, and other merchandise to customers.

Food and Beverage

Murphy USA offers a range of food and beverage options, including coffee, sandwiches, and snacks, through its convenience stores and restaurants.

Loyalty Programs

Murphy USA offers loyalty programs, such as the Murphy Drive Rewards program, to reward frequent customers and provide discounts and benefits.

Commercial Fueling

Murphy USA provides commercial fueling solutions for fleets and businesses, offering customized fuel management and logistics services.

8. Murphy USA Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Murphy USA Inc. faces moderate threat from substitutes, as customers have limited alternatives for fuel and convenience store products. However, the company's strong brand recognition and loyalty programs help mitigate this threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Murphy USA Inc. has a large customer base, but individual customers have limited bargaining power due to the company's scale and market presence.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Murphy USA Inc. relies on a few large suppliers for fuel and other products, giving them some bargaining power. However, the company's scale and diversification efforts help mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

Murphy USA Inc. operates in a capital-intensive industry with high barriers to entry, making it difficult for new entrants to compete effectively.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Murphy USA Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry with many established players, leading to intense rivalry and pricing pressure.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 67.30%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 32.70%
Equity Cost 7.82%
WACC 5.21%
Leverage 205.83%

11. Quality Control: Murphy USA Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Murphy USA

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 4.2

Growth: 8.0

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 7.0

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

396.67$

Current Price

396.67$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows