NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

NMI Holdings, Inc.provides private mortgage guaranty insurance services in the United States.The company offers mortgage insurance services; and outsourced loan review services to mortgage loan originators.

It serves national and regional mortgage banks, money center banks, credit unions, community banks, builder-owned mortgage lenders, internet-sourced lenders, and other non-bank lenders.NMI Holdings, Inc.was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Emeryville, California.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on NMIH

NMI Holdings, Inc.'s recent performance was driven by a favorable earnings outlook, with analysts expecting Q4 2025 earnings of $1.17 per share and revenue of $180.6910 million. The company's upcoming earnings release on February 10th is expected to provide further insight into its financial performance. Additionally, the recent purchase of 30,758 shares by Capital Fund Management S.A. valued at approximately $1,298,000 indicates growing investor confidence in the company. Furthermore, the company's ability to navigate the evolving housing market, as highlighted by Washington's new plan, presents opportunities for growth and expansion.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	37.94
Change Percentage	-1.58%
Open	38.2
Previous Close	38.55
Market Cap ( Millions)	2916
Volume	415097
Year High	43.2
Year Low	31.9
M A 50	39.37
M A 200	38.86

FCF Yield	14.14%
Dividend Yield	0.00%
ROE	0.06%
Debt / Equity	0.02%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	-8106.60%
Price To Book	0.0
Price Earnings Ratio	7.48
Price To FCF	7.07
Price To sales	4.13
EV / EBITDA	-75.63

2. NMI Holdings Delivers Strong Q4 2025 Results

NMI Holdings reported a robust fourth quarter, with total revenue reaching a record $180.7 million, GAAP net income of $94.2 million, or $1.20 per diluted share, and return on equity of 14.8%. The company's primary insurance in force grew to $221.4 billion, up 1.4% from the end of the third quarter and 5.4% compared to 2024. Earnings per share came in at $1.20, beating analyst estimates of $1.17. The company's financial performance was driven by significant new business production and consistent growth in its insured portfolio.

Publication Date: Feb -18

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Record Net Income::
                                                2025 net income reached $388.9 million, up 8% YoY, with EPS of $4.92, reflecting a 11% increase.
Insured Portfolio Growth::
                                                Primary insurance in force hit $221.4 billion, a 5.4% YoY increase, driven by $49 billion in 2025 NIW volume.
Strong Financial Performance::
                                                Q4 2025 reported $180.7 million in total revenue, $94.2 million GAAP net income, and 14.8% ROE.
Persistency Adjustment::
                                                Q4 persistency declined 50 bps due to rate rallies but remains above historical norms, with normalization expected over time.
Capital Allocation Strategy::
                                                $25 million quarterly share buybacks in 2026, alongside securing enhanced forward flow coverage for 2028 at improved economics.

                                

Revenue Growth and Profitability

The company's revenue growth is expected to continue, with analysts estimating a 4.7% increase in revenues for the next year. NMI Holdings' ability to generate strong financial results is a testament to its high-quality, high-performing primary insurance in force. As Adam Pollitzer noted, "We generated $14.2 billion of NIW volume and ended the period with a record $221.4 billion of high-quality, high-performing primary insurance in force."

Valuation Metrics

Looking at valuation metrics, NMI Holdings' Price-to-Book Ratio is not available, but its P/E Ratio stands at 7.89, and its Free Cash Flow Yield is 12.57%. These metrics indicate that the company may be undervalued, with a relatively low P/E Ratio and a high Free Cash Flow Yield. The company's Return on Equity is 0.06%, indicating a relatively low return on equity.

Industry Outlook and Competitive Landscape

NMI Holdings is well-positioned to continue serving its customers and driving growth in its high-quality insured portfolio. The company expects its core premium yield to remain generally stable going forward. As Adam Pollitzer noted, "We're encouraged by the bipartisan recognition of the unique and valuable role that our industry plays." The company's ability to secure forward flow quota share coverage for 2028 with better economics is also a positive development.

Capital Management

NMI Holdings will continue with its recent pace of buying back roughly $25 million of stock per quarter. The company's capital management strategy is focused on driving growth, returns, and value for its shareholders. With a strong financial position and a solid outlook for the industry, NMI Holdings is poised to continue delivering value to its shareholders.

3. NewsRoom

Dimensional Fund Advisors LP Buys 31,570 Shares of NMI Holdings Inc $NMIH

Mar -10

Source: defenseworld.net

NMI Holdings, Inc. to Participate at the RBC Global Financial Institutions Conference on March 11th, 2026

Mar -06

Source: globenewswire.com

Elo Mutual Pension Insurance Co Purchases 16,873 Shares of NMI Holdings Inc $NMIH

Mar -06

Source: defenseworld.net

NMI (NASDAQ:NMIH) Chairman Sells $779,346.45 in Stock

Mar -02

Source: defenseworld.net

Chase Investment Counsel Corp Sells 18,357 Shares of NMI Holdings Inc $NMIH

Feb -24

Source: defenseworld.net

Norman Peter Fitzgerald Sells 22,500 Shares of NMI (NASDAQ:NMIH) Stock

Feb -20

Source: defenseworld.net

What Makes NMI Holdings (NMIH) a New Buy Stock

Feb -18

Source: zacks.com

NMIH or KNSL: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?

Feb -18

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (7.00%)

6. Segments

Insurance and Related Activities

Expected Growth: 7.0%

NMI Holdings, Inc.'s 7.0% growth in Insurance and Related Activities is driven by increasing demand for mortgage insurance, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on risk-based pricing, improved underwriting, and investments in digital platforms have contributed to its growth.

7. Detailed Products

National MI

National MI is a private mortgage insurance (PMI) product that provides mortgage insurance to borrowers, allowing them to purchase or refinance a home with a lower down payment.

Covenant

Covenant is a risk-based pricing product that offers more competitive pricing for borrowers with stronger credit profiles.

RateGPS

RateGPS is a rate quoting and ordering platform that provides lenders with a streamlined way to quote and order mortgage insurance.

Insurer Insights

Insurer Insights is a data analytics platform that provides lenders with actionable insights to help them better understand their mortgage insurance business.

8. NMI Holdings, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for NMI Holdings, Inc. is medium due to the presence of alternative mortgage insurance providers in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for NMI Holdings, Inc. is low due to the company's strong brand reputation and limited alternatives for mortgage insurance.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for NMI Holdings, Inc. is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers of reinsurance and other services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for NMI Holdings, Inc. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the mortgage insurance industry, including regulatory hurdles and capital requirements.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for NMI Holdings, Inc. is high due to the competitive nature of the mortgage insurance industry, with multiple players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	17.11%
Debt Cost	9.23%
Equity Weight	82.89%
Equity Cost	9.23%
WACC	9.23%
Leverage	20.64%

11. Quality Control: NMI Holdings, Inc. passed 7 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Enact Holdings

A-Score: 7.5/10

Value: 7.1

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 8.8

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Fidelity National Financial

A-Score: 7.0/10

Value: 7.9

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 6.3

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

MGIC

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 8.2

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Radian Group

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 8.1

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

NMI Holdings

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 7.6

Quality: 9.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Assurant

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 6.3

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

-30.00%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

9.23%

NMI Holdings, Inc. - US6292093050

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on NMIH

1.c. Company Highlights

Better Quality

Higher Growth

Lower Yield

Earnings Beats

Revenues Beats

Cheaper

Earnings Miss

Revenues Miss

2. NMI Holdings Delivers Strong Q4 2025 Results

Revenue Growth and Profitability

Valuation Metrics

Industry Outlook and Competitive Landscape

Capital Management

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (7.00%)

6. Segments

Insurance and Related Activities

Expected Growth: 7.0%

7. Detailed Products

National MI

Covenant

RateGPS

Insurer Insights

8. NMI Holdings, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: NMI Holdings, Inc. passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

156.75$

Current Price

37.94$

Potential

313.15%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA