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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Natera, Inc., a diagnostics company, develops and commercializes molecular testing services worldwide.It offers Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test that screens for chromosomal abnormalities of a fetus with a blood draw from the mother, as well as twin pregnancies for zygosity; Vistara, a single-gene mutations screening test to identify single-gene disorder; Horizon carrier screening to determine carrier status for various genetic diseases; and Spectrum to identify chromosomal anomalies or inherited genetic conditions during an in vitro fertilization cycle.The company also provides Anora miscarriage test products to analyze fetal chromosomes to understand the cause of miscarriage; and non-invasive paternity testing products to determine paternity by gestation using a blood draw from the pregnant mother and alleged father.


In addition, it offers Constellation, a cloud-based software product that enables laboratory customers to gain access through the cloud to the company's algorithms and bioinformatics in order to validate and launch tests; Signatera, a circulating tumor DNA technology that screen for a generic set of mutations independent of an individual's tumor; and Prospera used to assess organ transplant rejection.The company offers products through its direct sales force, as well as through a network of approximately 100 laboratory and distribution partners.It has a partnership agreement with BGI Genomics Co., Ltd.


to develop, manufacture, and commercialize NGS-based genetic testing assays; and Foundation Medicine, Inc.to develop and commercialize personalized circulating tumor DNA monitoring assays.The company was formerly known as Gene Security Network, Inc.


and changed its name to Natera, Inc.in 2012.Natera, Inc.


was founded in 2003 and is based in Austin, Texas.

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1.b. Last Insights on NTRA

Breaking News: Natera Inc announced the commercial launch of Zenith Genomics for rare disease diagnosis. The next-generation whole genome sequencing assay aims to improve detection of rare diseases. The company is presenting Zenith's platform and performance at the 2026 American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics Annual Meeting. MyOme also debuted Zenith portfolio with Natera and launched long-read methylation analysis at ACMG 2026. No recent earnings release data available. Analysts at Leerink Global Healthcare Conference 2026 discussed Natera's prospects. Recommendation to buy from some analysts.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Natera's Q4 2025 Earnings: Strong Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion

Natera's Q4 2025 financial results were impressive, with revenue reaching $666 million, a 40% increase from Q4 2024, and $6 million ahead of the preannouncement. The company's gross margin was 66.9%, with a record organic gross margin quarter at 63.7%. The earnings per share (EPS) came out at $0.35, significantly better than the estimated -$0.51207. The strong financial performance was driven by a record 924,000 tests processed, with MRD clinical units growing 56% year-over-year to 225,000 tests.

Publication Date: Mar -01

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue & Margin Growth:: Q4 revenue reached $666 million (40% YoY), with a record organic gross margin of 63.7% and overall gross margin of 66.9%.
  • MRD Expansion:: MRD clinical units surged 56% YoY to 225,000 tests, driven by genome Signatera and Latitude launches, with exome volume as the majority.
  • 2026 Guidance:: Revenue projected at $2.62–$2.7 billion (25% growth), with gross margins targeting 63–65%, up from 61.5% in 2025.
  • Cash Flow & Balance Sheet:: Generated $107 million cash flow in 2025 and held $1 billion in cash/securities, achieving Q4 net income.
  • R&D & Product Launches:: Phase Variant technology improved ctDNA detection to 1 part per 10 million, and Latitude submitted to MolDx for colorectal cancer, expanding MRD moat.

Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion

The company's revenue growth was driven by continued expansion in its women's health and organ health products. The gross margin improvement was a result of operational leverage and efficiency gains. Natera's guidance for 2026 expects revenues between $2.62 billion and $2.7 billion, with gross margins between 63% and 65%. The company expects to continue to improve margins in 2026, driven by its focus on operational efficiency and volume growth.

Product Launches and Clinical Studies

Natera made significant investments in product launches and clinical studies in 2025. The company expanded its MRD product portfolio with the launch of the genome version of Signatera and the Latitude MRD test. The Fetal Focus test has shown robust performance, with 96% sensitivity and 98% specificity. The company also presented data on its Prospera donor DNA monitoring in organ health and its Signatera test in oncology, including exceptional momentum in bladder cancer.

Valuation Metrics

Natera's current valuation metrics indicate a high-growth profile. The company's Price-to-Sales Ratio is 12.58, and the EV/EBITDA ratio is -109.1. The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is -11.81%, indicating that the company's investments are not yet generating positive returns. However, the company's strong revenue growth and margin expansion are expected to drive future returns.

Growth Prospects

Natera guides for 25% revenue growth in 2026, driven by continued growth in women's health volumes and ASPs, and another strong year of growth for organ health products, including Signatera. The company expects Signatera to continue growing sequentially quarter-over-quarter, with a strong start to 2026. The analysts' estimates for next year's revenue growth are 19.8%, indicating a high-growth profile for the company.

3. NewsRoom

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Invesco Main Street Mid Cap Fund Q4 2025 Portfolio Activity

Mar -12

Source: seekingalpha.com

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MyOme Debuts Zenith™ Portfolio with Natera and Launches Long-Read Methylation Analysis at ACMG 2026

Mar -12

Source: prnewswire.com

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Natera Announces Commercial Launch of Zenith™ Genomics for Rare Disease Diagnosis

Mar -12

Source: businesswire.com

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Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Presents at Leerink Global Healthcare Conference 2026 Transcript

Mar -12

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Focus Partners Advisor Solutions LLC Has $1.70 Million Stake in Natera, Inc. $NTRA

Mar -06

Source: defenseworld.net

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Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Presents at 47th Annual Raymond James Institutional Investor Conference Transcript

Mar -05

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Presents at TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference Transcript

Mar -04

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Signatera™ MRD Data at ASCO GU Highlights Potential Utility Across GU Cancers, Including for Bladder Preservation

Feb -27

Source: businesswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (12.05%)

6. Segments

Molecular Testing

Expected Growth: 12%

Natera's molecular testing growth is driven by increasing adoption of non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) and genetic testing, expanding reproductive health offerings, and growing demand for cancer and organ health testing. Additionally, strategic partnerships, investments in R&D, and increasing reimbursement coverage contribute to the 12% growth rate.

Licensing and Other

Expected Growth: 16%

Natera's 16% growth in Licensing and Other is driven by increasing demand for its non-invasive genetic testing products, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. The company's proprietary technology and strong intellectual property portfolio also contribute to its growth, as it licenses its technology to other companies and generates revenue from royalties.

7. Detailed Products

Panorama

A non-invasive prenatal test (NIPT) that screens for chromosomal abnormalities, including trisomy 21 (Down syndrome), trisomy 18 (Edwards syndrome), trisomy 13 (Patau syndrome), and monosomy X (Turner syndrome)

Horizon

A carrier screening test that identifies individuals who are carriers of genetic mutations that could be passed on to their offspring

Signatera

A personalized circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) test that detects and monitors cancer mutations in blood

Prospera

A transplant rejection test that detects donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) in blood to monitor organ transplant rejection

8. Natera, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Natera's non-invasive genetic testing products are highly specialized, making substitutes less likely. However, the company's reliance on a single product, Panorama, increases the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Natera's customers, primarily healthcare providers and patients, have limited bargaining power due to the company's strong brand reputation and limited alternatives.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Natera's suppliers, primarily manufacturers of genetic testing equipment and reagents, have limited bargaining power due to the company's large scale and diversified supply chain.

Threat Of New Entrants

The genetic testing industry is highly competitive, and new entrants can easily disrupt the market with innovative products and services, posing a significant threat to Natera's market share.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The genetic testing industry is highly competitive, with several established players, including Illumina and Quest Diagnostics, competing for market share, leading to a high intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 32.88%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 67.12%
Equity Cost 10.81%
WACC 8.55%
Leverage 48.99%

11. Quality Control: Natera, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
LabCorp

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 4.6

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 9.3

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Medpace

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 1.3

Growth: 9.3

Quality: 7.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Natera

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 7.0

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Waters

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 1.0

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 7.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Twist Bioscience

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 7.1

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Charles River Laboratories

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 4.6

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 3.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

189.46$

Current Price

189.46$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows