Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

National CineMedia, Inc., through its subsidiary, National CineMedia, LLC, operates cinema advertising network in North America.It engages in the sale of advertising to national, regional, and local businesses in Noovie, a cinema advertising and entertainment pre-show seen on movie screens; and sells advertising on its Lobby Entertainment Network, a series of strategically-placed screens located in movie theater lobbies, as well as other forms of advertising and promotions in theatre lobbies.The company is also engaged in the sale of online and mobile advertising through its Noovie Audience Accelerator product, as well as a suite of Noovie digital properties, such as Noovie Shuffle, Noovie Trivia, Name That Movie, and Noovie Arcade to reach entertainment audiences beyond the theater.


It offers its services to third-party theater circuits under long-term network affiliate agreements.The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Centennial, Colorado.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on NCMI

National CineMedia's recent trajectory has been impacted by insider selling, with EVP Maria Vg Woods offloading 9,043 shares. The company's profitability and earnings have been scrutinized in comparisons with peers like Star Fashion Culture and WPP. A partnership with TransUnion to integrate theatrical exposure data into cross-platform attribution models may enhance advertiser insights. Institutional ownership stands at 69.5%, with risk and volatility under examination.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. NCM's Q4 Earnings: A Strong Finish to a Resilient Year

National CineMedia's (NCM) fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings report showcased the company's ability to execute its strategic priorities, drive increased advertiser demand, and strengthen exhibitor relationships. Total fourth quarter revenue was $93.2 million, up 8% year-over-year, with national advertising revenue growing 10% to $76 million. The company's adjusted OIBDA was $37.2 million, exceeding guidance range and up 6% from the prior year. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.28, beating analyst estimates of $0.25. For the full year 2025, NCM's total revenue was $243.2 million, up 1% from $240.8 million in 2024, driven by a 3.5% increase in national advertising revenue to $194.5 million.

Publication Date: 08:53

📋 Highlights
  • Q4 Revenue Growth: Total revenue rose 8% YoY to $93.2M, driven by 10% growth in national advertising ($76M) and 100% surge in programmatic revenue.
  • Adjusted OIBDA Surpassed Guidance: Adjusted OIBDA reached $37.2M, up 6% YoY, exceeding expectations despite higher expenses ($56.1M vs. $51.3M).
  • Full-Year National Ad Revenue Expansion: National advertising revenue grew 3.5% to $194.5M, fueled by 21% more impressions sold per attendee and 3% higher attendance.
  • Shareholder Returns: $33.6M returned in 2025, including $22.3M in share repurchases (4.1M shares at $5.41 average price) and $11.3M in dividends.
  • Local Advertising Challenges: Local/Regional revenue fell to $34.6M (full-year) and $13.8M (Q4), impacted by trade pullbacks in pharma, auto, and government sectors.

Revenue Growth Drivers

NCM's revenue growth was driven by a 21% increase in national impressions sold per attendee and a 3% increase in attendance. Programmatic revenue increased 100% year-over-year, driven by the adoption of the platform by clients. Local and regional advertising revenue was up 2% to $13.8 million in Q4, although it decreased for the full year due to trade-related pullback in certain categories. The company's focus on local data-driven advertiser targeting and category expertise is expected to drive future growth.

Expenses and Profitability

NCM's adjusted operating expenses were $56.1 million, up from $51.3 million year-over-year, mainly due to higher attendance-related exhibitor fees and a slight increase in SG&A. Despite this, adjusted OIBDA margin remained healthy, and the company's unlevered free cash flow was $6.1 million. The company's strong balance sheet and cash flow generation enabled it to return approximately $33.6 million to shareholders in 2025 through dividends and share repurchases.

Outlook and Valuation

Looking ahead, NCM expects to capture a greater share of advertiser budgets, driven by its superior platform and industry-wide tailwinds. The company's guidance for Q1 2026 revenue is between $32.5 million and $36.5 million, with adjusted OIBDA between negative $13 million and negative $10 million. With a P/S Ratio of 589.13 and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 9.67, the market appears to have priced in significant growth expectations. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 10.0%, which may be achievable given NCM's strong positioning and industry tailwinds.

Dividend and Share Repurchase

NCM announced a quarterly dividend of $0.03 per share, amounting to $2.8 million, to be paid on March 23, 2026. The company resumed share repurchases in Q4 2025, bringing the full year total to 4.1 million shares at an average price of $5.41 per share. With a Dividend Yield of 3.37%, NCM offers an attractive income stream to investors.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

CORRECTING and REPLACING National CineMedia, Inc. Reports Results for Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025

Feb -27

Source: businesswire.com

Card image cap

Pop Culture Group (NASDAQ:CPOP) versus National CineMedia (NASDAQ:NCMI) Critical Comparison

Feb -27

Source: defenseworld.net

Card image cap

National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -27

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

National CineMedia (NCMI) Reports Q4 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say

Feb -27

Source: zacks.com

Card image cap

National CineMedia (NCMI) Q4 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates

Feb -27

Source: zacks.com

Card image cap

Comparing WPP (NYSE:WPP) & National CineMedia (NASDAQ:NCMI)

Feb -24

Source: defenseworld.net

Card image cap

Pop Culture Group (NASDAQ:CPOP) & National CineMedia (NASDAQ:NCMI) Critical Review

Feb -22

Source: defenseworld.net

Card image cap

Analyzing National CineMedia (NASDAQ:NCMI) and Star Fashion Culture (NASDAQ:STFS)

Feb -14

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.80%)

6. Segments

National Advertising

Expected Growth: 4.83%

National Advertising from National CineMedia, Inc. growth of 4.83% driven by increasing demand for cinema advertising, rise in digital cinema conversions, and growing advertiser interest in targeted, high-impact media. Additionally, strategic partnerships and expanding network of theaters contribute to growth.

Local and Regional Advertising

Expected Growth: 4.65%

National CineMedia's 4.65% growth in Local and Regional Advertising is driven by increasing demand for targeted cinema ads, expansion of digital cinema footprint, and strategic partnerships with local businesses. Additionally, the company's data-driven advertising solutions and innovative formats, such as augmented reality experiences, are attracting new advertisers and increasing revenue.

Management Fee Reimbursement

Expected Growth: 4.83%

The 4.83% growth in Management Fee Reimbursement from National CineMedia, Inc. is driven by increasing demand for cinema advertising, strategic partnerships, and effective cost management. Additionally, the company's focus on digital transformation and innovative marketing solutions has contributed to the growth.

ESA Advertising Revenue from Beverage Concessionaire Agreements

Expected Growth: 4.83%

The 4.83% growth in ESA Advertising Revenue from Beverage Concessionaire Agreements is driven by increasing demand for in-theater advertising, expansion of National CineMedia's network, and growing consumer spending on beverages at cinemas. Additionally, strategic partnerships and innovative advertising formats contribute to the growth.

7. Detailed Products

Noovie

A pre-roll entertainment and advertising platform that provides engaging content to moviegoers before the main feature film

Cinema Advertising

On-screen advertising solutions that allow brands to reach a large and engaged audience in movie theaters

Fathom Events

A leading distributor of live and pre-recorded events to movie theaters, including concerts, sports, and performing arts

Digital Out-of-Home (DOOH) Advertising

Digital signage and advertising solutions for movie theaters, malls, and other public spaces

Data and Analytics

Audience insights and data analytics solutions that help advertisers and content owners understand their audience

8. National CineMedia, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for National CineMedia, Inc. is medium because while there are alternative forms of advertising, such as online ads, the company's cinema advertising platform provides a unique and engaging experience for advertisers.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for National CineMedia, Inc. is low because the company has a diverse range of advertisers and no single customer accounts for a significant portion of its revenue.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for National CineMedia, Inc. is medium because while the company relies on a network of theaters to display its ads, it has a diverse range of suppliers and can negotiate favorable terms.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for National CineMedia, Inc. is low because the company has a strong brand and a large network of theaters, making it difficult for new entrants to compete.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for National CineMedia, Inc. is high because the company operates in a competitive industry with several established players, and must continually innovate and improve its offerings to stay ahead.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 2.47%
Debt Cost 13.57%
Equity Weight 97.53%
Equity Cost 13.57%
WACC 13.57%
Leverage 2.53%

11. Quality Control: National CineMedia, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Travelzoo

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 8.8

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
National CineMedia

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 2.4

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Innovid

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
QuinStreet

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 4.2

Growth: 7.6

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
AdTheorent Holding Company

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Cardlytics

A-Score: 2.8/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

3.6$

Current Price

3.6$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows