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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Rithm Capital Corp.provides capital and services to the real estate and financial services sectors in the United States.Its investment portfolio comprises mortgage servicing related assets, residential securities and loans, and consumer loans.


It qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes.The company generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders.The company was formerly known as New Residential Investment Corp.


and changed its name to Rithm Capital Corp.in August 2022.Rithm Capital Corp.


was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

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1.b. Last Insights on RITM

Rithm Capital Corp.'s recent performance was negatively impacted by market sentiment and valuation concerns. Despite delivering a 19% EAD return on equity for FY25 and normalized EPS of $0.74, beating consensus by over 23%, the market still values its book value with a large discount. The company's successful transition from a mortgage REIT to a diversified global alternative asset manager, with over $100 billion in investable assets, has not been reflected in its valuation. Analysts have a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating with a $14.50 price target.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Rithm Capital's Strong Q4 2025 Earnings: A Deeper Dive

Rithm Capital reported a robust Q4 2025 earnings, with earnings available for distribution (EAD) of $0.74 per diluted share, surpassing estimates of $0.55. The company's EAD for the full year was $2.35 per diluted share, representing a 12% year-over-year growth. The strong performance was driven by its diverse platform, which includes asset management, mortgage origination, and servicing, with $100 billion in investable assets across the firm. The company's book value stood at $7 billion, or $12.66 per common share, despite paying out over $600 million in dividends.

Publication Date: Feb -16

📋 Highlights
  • Earnings Growth:: Q4 EAD of $0.74/share (24% ROE) and full-year EAD of $2.35/share (12% YoY growth).
  • Genesis Performance:: 250% earnings increase since 2022 acquisition, driven by $4.8B in loan originations.
  • Paramount Acquisition:: Office REIT bought at 40% discount to pre-COVID values ($585/sq ft) with 13M sq ft in NY/SF.
  • NewRez Lending Scale:: $63B in 2025 funded volume, making it the fifth-largest U.S. mortgage lender.
  • Book Value Strength:: $12.66/share book value despite $600M+ in dividends, with $1.7B cash liquidity.

Segment Performance

The Genesis business had a record year with $4.8 billion in originations and earnings up 250% since its acquisition in 2022. NewRez, the company's mortgage business, reported $1.1 billion in pretax income for 2025, a 17% increase year-over-year. The company's origination platform delivered $63 billion in funded volume for 2025, positioning it as the fifth-largest mortgage lender.

Strategic Transactions and Outlook

Rithm Capital announced several strategic transactions, including the acquisition of Crestline Asset Management and Paramount, a real estate company with 13 large office buildings in New York and San Francisco. The company expects the yield curve to continue to steepen, leading to more mortgage production and higher levels of amortization, providing an opportunity for origination gains. The company's investment portfolio is diversified, with a focus on commercial real estate and mortgage finance.

Valuation and Capital Allocation

Rithm Capital's valuation is considered low relative to its earnings potential, with a P/E Ratio of 9.19 and a P/B Ratio of 0.71. The company's Dividend Yield stands at 9.46%, making it an attractive option for income investors. The company is focused on growing its asset management business and exploring opportunities to raise capital, with $1.7 billion in cash and liquidity. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 4.0%, indicating a stable outlook for the company.

Future Prospects

The acquisition of Paramount Group is expected to be transformational for Rithm in the commercial real estate space. The company's mortgage business is well-positioned to benefit from the expected increase in mortgage production, and its focus on creating alpha and results for its clients is likely to drive long-term growth. With a strong track record of generating returns for shareholders and limited partners, Rithm Capital is poised for continued success.

3. NewsRoom

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Rithm (RITM) Exceeds Market Returns: Some Facts to Consider

Apr -13

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Rithm Capital Corp. Schedules First Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call

Apr -10

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Rithm Capital: Most Buy For The 10% Dividend, But The Upside Is The Thesis

Apr -10

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Wall Street Analysts See a 41.27% Upside in Rithm (RITM): Can the Stock Really Move This High?

Apr -10

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Rithm (RITM) Rises Higher Than Market: Key Facts

Apr -02

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10% Yield Worth Considering From Rithm Capital

Apr -01

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SG Americas Securities LLC Trims Holdings in Rithm Capital Corp. $RITM

Mar -30

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Finally Using My Cash For Big Yields

Mar -28

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (7.73%)

6. Segments

Origination and Servicing

Expected Growth: 7.88%

Rithm Capital Corp.'s 7.88% growth in Origination and Servicing is driven by increasing mortgage demand, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's investment in digital platforms and process automation has improved operational efficiency, reducing costs and enhancing customer experience. Furthermore, the company's diversified product offerings and strong risk management practices have enabled it to capitalize on market opportunities while mitigating potential risks.

Investment Portfolio

Expected Growth: 7.5%

Rithm Capital Corp.'s 7.5% investment portfolio growth is driven by a combination of factors, including a strong housing market, increasing demand for mortgage loans, and effective risk management strategies. Additionally, the company's diversified investment portfolio, which includes mortgage-backed securities, whole loans, and other assets, has contributed to its growth. Furthermore, Rithm Capital's ability to leverage its scale and expertise to identify and capitalize on investment opportunities has also been a key driver of its growth.

Mortgage Loans Receivable

Expected Growth: 7.9%

The 7.9% growth in Mortgage Loans Receivable from Rithm Capital Corp. is driven by increasing demand for housing, low interest rates, and government-backed mortgage programs. Additionally, Rithm Capital's expansion into new markets, improved operational efficiency, and strategic partnerships have contributed to the growth.

Asset Management

Expected Growth: 7.5%

Rithm Capital Corp.'s 7.5% growth in Asset Management is driven by increasing demand for diversified investment products, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on ESG and sustainable investing, as well as its robust risk management framework, have contributed to its growth momentum.

Corporate Segment

Expected Growth: 4.77%

Rithm Capital Corp.'s Corporate Segment growth of 4.77% is driven by increasing mortgage originations, expansion of its servicing portfolio, and strategic investments in digital platforms. Additionally, the segment benefits from a favorable interest rate environment, growing demand for mortgage products, and the company's ability to effectively manage risk and optimize capital allocation.

7. Detailed Products

Mortgage Servicing

Rithm Capital Corp. provides mortgage servicing solutions to homeowners, offering loan servicing, subservicing, and special servicing.

Originations

Rithm Capital Corp. offers mortgage originations services, providing borrowers with a range of loan options, including conventional, FHA, VA, and USDA loans.

Capital Markets

Rithm Capital Corp. provides capital markets services, including securitization, whole loan trading, and mortgage-backed securities.

Title and Settlement Services

Rithm Capital Corp. offers title and settlement services, providing title insurance, escrow services, and closing solutions.

Valuations

Rithm Capital Corp. provides valuation services, including appraisal management, broker price opinions, and automated valuation models.

8. Rithm Capital Corp.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Rithm Capital Corp. operates in a highly competitive industry, but the threat of substitutes is mitigated by the company's diversified product offerings and strong brand recognition.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Rithm Capital Corp.'s customers have limited bargaining power due to the company's strong market position and lack of dependence on a single customer.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Rithm Capital Corp. has a moderate level of dependence on its suppliers, but the company's strong relationships and diversified supply chain mitigate the bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is high in the industry, driven by low barriers to entry and the attractiveness of the market. However, Rithm Capital Corp.'s strong brand recognition and established market position provide a competitive advantage.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. Rithm Capital Corp. must continue to innovate and differentiate itself to maintain its market position.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 78.73%
Debt Cost 7.03%
Equity Weight 21.27%
Equity Cost 12.77%
WACC 8.25%
Leverage 370.25%

11. Quality Control: Rithm Capital Corp. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Starwood Property Trust

A-Score: 7.3/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Annaly Capital Management

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Rithm Capital

A-Score: 7.1/10

Value: 7.1

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Blackstone Mortgage Trust

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Arbor Realty Trust

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 7.3

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
AGNC Investment

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

10.12$

Current Price

10.12$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows