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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Chord Energy Corporation operates as an independent exploration and production company.It acquires, exploits, develops, and explores for crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the Williston Basin.The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

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1.b. Last Insights on CHRD

Chord Energy Corporation's recent performance was driven by operational excellence, delivering net cash provided by operating activities and Adjusted Free Cash Flow above expectations, driven by efficient execution and strong asset performance. The company's impressive earnings surprise history and current combination of key ingredients suggest a likely beat in its next quarterly report. Additionally, Chord Energy's 4-mile lateral drilling program is driving industry-leading capital efficiency and expanding its inventory of economically viable acreage.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Chord Energy Corporation Delivers Strong Q4 2025 Results

Chord Energy Corporation reported a robust financial performance in Q4 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of $1.28, beating analyst estimates of $1.17. The company's revenue growth was driven by its operational improvements, with oil volumes at the high end of guidance and capital spending below the low end of guidance. The company's adjusted free cash flow was substantial, with approximately 50% returned to shareholders. The company's ability to generate strong free cash flow is reflected in its Free Cash Flow Yield of 11.58%, indicating a relatively attractive return for investors.

Publication Date: Mar -01

📋 Highlights
  • Free Cash Flow Growth:: Generated $160 million in 2025 free cash flow, representing 23% of the $700 million projected for 2026.
  • Operational Efficiency:: Exceeded oil production guidance by 1,000 barrels/day and reduced capital spending by $60 million in 2025.
  • Shareholder Returns:: Returned $6.7 billion to shareholders since the pandemic, surpassing the company’s current market cap.
  • Cost Optimization:: Lowered weighted average breakeven cost by >10% and reduced future development costs by 22% over recent years.
  • Production Resilience:: Delivered 6,000 barrels/day higher oil production post-merger with Enerplus while cutting capital spending by nearly $100 million.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was impressive, with oil production exceeding original guidance by 1,000 barrels per day. Chord Energy Corporation has been focused on optimizing its capital allocation, and its efforts have yielded significant results, with a $160 million improvement in free cash flow in 2025. As CEO Danny Brown noted, "We have built organizationally tremendous momentum around this, and we have seen success through a combination of multiple efforts." The company's move to longer laterals has significantly lowered its cost of supply, with a more than 10% reduction in the weighted average breakeven of its inventory.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/E Ratio of 138.55, Chord Energy Corporation's valuation appears to be relatively high, suggesting that the market has already priced in significant growth expectations. However, the company's ROE of 0.54% and ROIC of 0.31% indicate that it is generating returns on its investments, albeit modest. Analysts estimate revenue growth of 8.5% for the next year, which may be achievable given the company's operational improvements and focus on cost control. The company's Dividend Yield of 4.8% provides a relatively attractive return for income-seeking investors.

Growth Prospects

Chord Energy Corporation is well-positioned for future growth, with a deep inventory of high oil cut production base and conservatively spaced oil-weighted locations. The company's focus on organic growth is evident, with 150 locations planned for TILing in 2026. The company's ability to weather commodity price cycles and generate meaningful free cash flow and shareholder returns is a testament to its resilience. As Danny Brown stated, "We think we are able to weather through some of these commodity price cycles and still generate really meaningful free cash flow and shareholder returns."

Midstream and Capital Activities

The company's midstream activities are also showing promise, with investments in water disposal expected to boost productivity. Darrin J. Henke noted that the full impact of the lateral length extensions has not been fully captured in the reserves, but the company is optimistic about the potential for future growth. The company's capital activities are expected to remain focused on organic growth, with a potential evaluation of M&A opportunities when they make sense.

3. NewsRoom

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American Century Companies Inc. Sells 107,318 Shares of Chord Energy Corporation $CHRD

Mar -03

Source: defenseworld.net

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Chord Energy Q4 Earnings Call Highlights

Mar -01

Source: defenseworld.net

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Citigroup Inc. Grows Stock Holdings in Chord Energy Corporation $CHRD

Mar -01

Source: defenseworld.net

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Iran Attack Will Launch Energy Stocks – 5 Strong Buy High-Yield Companies You Have To Own

Feb -28

Source: 247wallst.com

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Chord Energy: This U.S. Oil Gem's Valuation Disconnect Is Too Big To Ignore

Feb -28

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -26

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) Reports Q4 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say

Feb -26

Source: zacks.com

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Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) Q4 Earnings Top Estimates

Feb -26

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.62%)

6. Segments

Crude Oil

Expected Growth: 3.5%

Chord Energy Corporation's 3.5% growth in crude oil is driven by increasing production volumes from its STACK play assets, improved well productivity, and a favorable crude oil price environment. Additionally, the company's focus on operational efficiency and cost reduction initiatives have contributed to the growth.

Purchased Crude Oil

Expected Growth: 3.8%

The 3.8% growth in purchased crude oil from Chord Energy Corporation is driven by increasing global energy demand, improved drilling efficiencies, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, favorable crude oil prices, enhanced oil recovery techniques, and growing production from existing wells also contribute to this growth.

Natural Gas Liquid and Natural Gas

Expected Growth: 4.2%

Chord Energy Corporation's 4.2% growth in Natural Gas Liquid (NGL) and Natural Gas is driven by increased production from its STACK and SCOOP assets, improved well productivity, and higher realized prices. Additionally, the company's strategic acreage acquisitions and efficient operations have contributed to the growth.

Purchased Natural Gas Liquid and Natural Gas

Expected Growth: 4.5%

The 4.5% growth in Purchased Natural Gas Liquid and Natural Gas from Chord Energy Corporation is driven by increasing demand for clean energy, strategic acquisitions, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, favorable government regulations, improved operational efficiency, and strong supply chain management also contribute to this growth.

7. Detailed Products

Crude Oil

Chord Energy Corporation is a leading independent oil and natural gas company that explores, develops, and produces crude oil from its assets in the United States.

Natural Gas

The company produces natural gas from its assets in the United States, which is used as a clean-burning fuel for power generation, industrial processes, and heating.

Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)

Chord Energy Corporation produces NGLs, which are used as a feedstock for the production of plastics, fertilizers, and other petrochemicals.

Oil and Gas Exploration Services

The company provides oil and gas exploration services, including seismic data acquisition and processing, drilling, and well completion services.

8. Chord Energy Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Chord Energy Corporation operates in the oil and gas industry, which has few substitutes. However, the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles poses a moderate threat to the company.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Chord Energy Corporation's customers are primarily large industrial and commercial entities, which have limited bargaining power due to their dependence on the company's oil and gas products.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Chord Energy Corporation relies on a diverse range of suppliers for its operations, which reduces the bargaining power of individual suppliers. However, the company's dependence on a few critical suppliers for specialized equipment and services increases their bargaining power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The oil and gas industry has significant barriers to entry, including high capital requirements, complex regulatory frameworks, and the need for specialized expertise. These barriers limit the threat of new entrants to Chord Energy Corporation.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The oil and gas industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. Chord Energy Corporation faces intense rivalry from its peers, which can lead to downward pressure on prices and profit margins.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 7.47%
Debt Cost 8.57%
Equity Weight 92.53%
Equity Cost 8.57%
WACC 8.57%
Leverage 8.08%

11. Quality Control: Chord Energy Corporation passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Coterra Energy

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 7.6

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 7.7

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Black Stone Minerals

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 5.5

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 7.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 9.3

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Chord Energy

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 8.1

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 6.0

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Kimbell Royalty Partners

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 5.3

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 8.7

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Civitas Resources

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 9.5

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 6.7

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.0

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Ovintiv

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

112.34$

Current Price

112.34$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows