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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Micromidas, Inc., doing business as Origin Materials, produces and commercializes plant-based PET plastic.It develops a platform for turning the carbon found in biomass into useful materials, while capturing carbon in the process.The company serves tire filler, carbon black, agriculture, and activated carbon markets.


Micromidas, Inc.has a strategic alliance with Palantir Technologies Inc.The company was incorporated in 2008 and is based in West Sacramento, California with a facility in Sarnia, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on ORGN

Origin Materials, Inc.'s recent performance was negatively impacted by allegations of fiduciary duty breaches by certain officers and directors, prompting an investigation by Halper Sadeh LLC. Additionally, the company entered into binding agreements to settle shareholder class action and derivative lawsuits. These developments may raise concerns about corporate governance and potentially lead to financial and reputational consequences. The upcoming Q3 2025 earnings release and conference call may provide further insight into the company's current state.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Origin Materials: PET Bottle Cap Technology Takes Off, But Guidance Revised

Origin Materials reported its Q2 2025 earnings, announcing a significant inflection point with its PET bottle caps now on store shelves. Despite OEM manufacturing delays, the company is making progress on its CapFormer line build-out, with the first system producing PET caps in Michigan. However, the company revised its revenue and run rate adjusted EBITDA guidance, estimating an aggregate reduction in manufacturing output of approximately 50% and 15% for 2026 and 2027, respectively.

Publication Date: Aug -17

📋 Highlights
  • Commercialization Milestone:: PET bottle caps now available on store shelves, leveraging superior recyclability and performance features.
  • Strategic Partnerships:: Collaborations with Berlin Packaging and Royal Hordijk expand EU manufacturing footprint, avoiding cross-U.S. border logistics.
  • Financial Guidance Revision:: 50% and 15% reductions in 2026 and 2027 manufacturing output guidance due to OEM delays and CapFormer ramp-up.
  • Balance Sheet Strength:: Ended Q2 with $69 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities.
  • NASDAQ Listing Status:: 51 days remaining in first 180-day grace period to meet $1 stock price threshold, with confidence in recovery.

Financial Performance

The company did not provide specific revenue figures, but analysts expect a 144.8% revenue growth next year. The actual EPS came out at -$0.09, in line with estimates. Origin Materials ended the quarter with a strong balance sheet, including $69 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities. The company's valuation metrics indicate a P/E Ratio of -0.85, P/B Ratio of 0.26, and P/S Ratio of 2.81, suggesting a relatively low valuation.

Strategic Partnerships and Growth Opportunities

Origin Materials has refined its go-to-market strategy, prioritizing high-value opportunities within the $65 billion caps and closures market. The company has announced partnerships with Berlin Packaging and Royal Hordijk, expanding its manufacturing footprint and enabling the production and sale of PET caps without crossing U.S. borders. As John Bissell mentioned, "The Hordijk partnership is an excellent addition, particularly in the EU, with its large capacity for extrusion of PET sheet for thermoforming."

Outlook and Challenges

Origin Materials faces challenges in meeting the NASDAQ listing requirements, with a current stock price below $1. However, the company is confident in its ability to increase its stock value and meet the minimum listing requirements. Matthew T. Plavan stated, "We have 51 days left in our first grace period and are confident we can increase our stock value and meet the minimum listing requirements."

Valuation and Future Prospects

With a strong balance sheet and strategic partnerships in place, Origin Materials is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for sustainable and recyclable PET bottle caps. Despite the revised guidance, the company's growth prospects remain attractive, with a potential upside in the water market and interest from established cap companies. With a P/E Ratio of -0.85 and a P/B Ratio of 0.26, the company's valuation appears relatively low, making it an attractive opportunity for investors.

3. NewsRoom

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Origin Materials Announces Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Release Date and Conference Call

Oct -30

Source: businesswire.com

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Notice to Shareholders Regarding Settlements

Oct -27

Source: businesswire.com

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Halper Sadeh LLC Encourages Origin Materials, Inc. Shareholders to Contact the Firm to Discuss Their Rights

Oct -23

Source: businesswire.com

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Origin Materials, Inc. - Special Call

Oct -01

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Origin Materials, Inc. (ORGN) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Aug -15

Source: seekingalpha.com

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First Origin PET Caps in Stores with Power Hydration Pilot Launch

Aug -14

Source: businesswire.com

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Origin Materials Announces Strategic Customer Relationship with Berlin Packaging for Sustainable PET Bottlecaps

Aug -05

Source: businesswire.com

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Origin Materials Announces Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Release Date and Conference Call

Jul -31

Source: businesswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (13.07%)

6. Segments

Biomass Conversion Technology

Expected Growth: 10.5%

Growing demand for sustainable alternatives to fossil fuels, increasing adoption of renewable energy sources, and government initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions drive the growth of Origin Materials' biomass conversion technology.

Services

Expected Growth: 25.4%

Growing demand for sustainable materials, increasing adoption of carbon-neutral technologies, and partnerships with major companies drive Origin Materials' growth, as companies seek to reduce their carbon footprint and meet ESG goals.

7. Detailed Products

Carbon-Negative Chemicals

Origin Materials, Inc. produces carbon-negative chemicals that replace fossil fuels as the feedstock for the production of various chemicals, such as PET, MDI, and PC.

Carbon-Negative Plastics

The company develops carbon-negative plastics that can replace traditional plastics in various applications, including packaging, textiles, and automotive parts.

Carbon-Negative Fuels

Origin Materials, Inc. produces carbon-negative fuels that can be used as a drop-in replacement for fossil fuels in various industries, including transportation and power generation.

Carbon-Negative Building Materials

The company develops carbon-negative building materials, such as carbon-negative concrete, that can be used in construction and infrastructure projects.

Carbon-Negative Packaging

Origin Materials, Inc. produces carbon-negative packaging materials that can replace traditional packaging materials, reducing waste and greenhouse gas emissions.

8. Origin Materials, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Origin Materials, Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative materials and technologies that can replace the company's products.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Origin Materials, Inc. is low due to the company's strong brand reputation and the lack of alternative suppliers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Origin Materials, Inc. is medium due to the company's dependence on a few key suppliers and the availability of alternative suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Origin Materials, Inc. is high due to the low barriers to entry and the attractiveness of the industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Origin Materials, Inc. is high due to the high level of competition in the industry and the company's small market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 1.30%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 98.70%
Equity Cost 8.05%
WACC 7.99%
Leverage 1.32%

11. Quality Control: Origin Materials, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Valhi

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 9.5

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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AdvanSix

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
LSB Industries

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 2.8

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
ASP Isotopes

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 1.4

Quality: 3.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Rayonier Advanced Materials

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 0.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Origin Materials

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

0.53$

Current Price

0.53$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows