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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

PayPal Holdings, Inc.operates a technology platform that enables digital payments on behalf of merchants and consumers worldwide.It provides payment solutions under the PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, Zettle, Hyperwallet, Honey, and Paidy names.


The company's payments platform allows consumers to send and receive payments in approximately 200 markets and in approximately 100 currencies, withdraw funds to their bank accounts in 56 currencies, and hold balances in their PayPal accounts in 25 currencies.PayPal Holdings, Inc.was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on PYPL

PayPal's recent performance was negatively impacted by intensifying competition in the digital payments space, slowing revenue growth, and increasing operational risks. Despite delivering strong Q3 results, including growth in revenues, EPS, and TPV, and lifting its 2025 outlook, the market reaction remained muted. Analyst downgrades, such as those from Dbs Bank and Sanford C. Bernstein, have also contributed to the stock's decline. Furthermore, PayPal's growth metrics, including TPV and transaction margin dollars, continue to show a year-over-year slowdown, implying a muted 4Q outlook.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. PayPal Holdings' Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

PayPal Holdings, Inc. reported a robust financial performance in Q3 2025, with total payment volume (TPV) accelerating to 8% growth at spot and 7% on a currency-neutral basis to over $458 billion. The company's transaction margin dollars grew 7%, driven by value-added services like payouts, adaptive payment optimization, and FX as a service. The company's non-GAAP EPS came in at $1.34, beating analyst estimates of $1.2. Revenue growth was also robust, with currency-neutral revenue growth expected in the mid-single digits for Q4.

Publication Date: Oct -30

📋 Highlights
  • Transaction Margin Growth:: PayPal achieved 7% growth in transaction margin dollars in Q3 2025, up from negative growth two years prior.
  • BNPL Momentum:: Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) TPV is on track to reach $40 billion in 2025, with 20% quarterly volume growth and 35% TPV uplift from engagement flywheel effects.
  • Venmo Expansion:: Venmo’s TPV grew 14% in Q3 (accelerating from 12% in Q2), with 100 million total active accounts and mid-single-digit account growth.
  • PSP Market Growth:: Payment Solutions Provider (PSP) volume growth surged to 6% in Q3 (from 2% prior quarter), driven by value-added services like FX and adaptive payments.
  • EPS Guidance Raised:: Non-GAAP EPS growth is projected at least 15% in 2025, with full-year transaction margin dollar guidance raised to $15.45–$15.55 billion (5–6% growth).

Segment Performance

The company's branded experiences TPV grew 8% on a currency-neutral basis in the quarter, driven by PayPal Everywhere, Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL), Venmo, and debit card programs. Venmo TPV growth accelerated to 14%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. The BNPL business is sustaining 20% volume growth quarter after quarter and is on track to process close to $40 billion in BNPL TPV in 2025.

Operational Highlights

The company is making significant progress in deploying its redesigned pay sheet experience, which now covers close to 25% of its global checkout transactions. As Alex Chriss noted, "We're moving quickly, but untangling a decade or more of legacy integrations is complex and taking more time than planned." The company is also investing in growth initiatives, including agentic commerce, which is expected to drive future growth.

Valuation

With a P/E Ratio of 13.72 and an ROE of 24.26%, PayPal Holdings, Inc. appears to be reasonably valued. The company's P/B Ratio is 3.34, indicating a premium valuation relative to its book value. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 6.0%, which is in line with the company's long-term growth expectations. As the company continues to invest in growth initiatives, its valuation multiples may be justified by its strong financial performance and growth prospects.

Outlook

The company expects accelerated growth in its PSP volume, driven by the adoption of value-added services and the launch of its omnichannel solution with Verifone. For the full year, the company is raising its transaction margin dollar guidance to a range of $15.45 to $15.55 billion, representing 5% to 6% growth. With its strong financial performance and growth prospects, PayPal Holdings, Inc. is well-positioned for long-term success.

3. NewsRoom

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JPMorgan Benches PayPal, Bets on Toast

Dec -04

Source: gurufocus.com

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PayPal's Branded Checkout & OpEx Concern: Will Growth be Affected?

Dec -04

Source: zacks.com

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Buy Visa, Ignore PayPal. How J.P. Morgan Is Playing Payments Stocks in 2026.

Dec -04

Source: barrons.com

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Here Are Thursday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: AutoZone, BXP, Fiserv, Meta Platforms, PayPal, Salesforce, Toast and More

Dec -04

Source:

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PayPal stock price forecast: Is this fintech giant a buy?

Dec -04

Source: invezz.com

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PayPal Holdings, Inc. $PYPL Holdings Increased by Groupe la Francaise

Dec -04

Source: defenseworld.net

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PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) Shares Down 2.6% Following Analyst Downgrade

Dec -04

Source: defenseworld.net

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PayPal shares fall as CFO flags weaker holiday-quarter spending trends

Dec -03

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.90%)

6. Segments

Services to Financial Companies

Expected Growth: 5.9%

The expected growth rate is based on the global revenue growth hypothesis. The segment is likely to benefit from the increasing adoption of digital payments by financial institutions, which is driving the growth of PayPal's services to financial companies. As the global digital payment landscape continues to evolve, PayPal is well-positioned to capture a significant share of the growing market, thereby driving revenue growth in this segment.

7. Detailed Products

PayPal Payments Standard

A payment processing solution that allows businesses to accept online payments

PayPal Payments Pro

A payment processing solution that allows businesses to accept online payments and manage transactions

PayPal Here

A mobile payment processing solution that allows businesses to accept in-person payments

Venmo

A peer-to-peer payment service that allows individuals to send and receive money

Xoom

A digital money transfer service that allows individuals to send money internationally

PayPal Credit

A digital credit line that allows customers to pay for purchases over time

PayPal Working Capital

A financing solution that provides businesses with access to capital based on their PayPal sales history

PayPal Business Loans

A financing solution that provides businesses with access to capital for various business needs

8. PayPal Holdings, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

PayPal's services are highly specialized and there are limited substitutes available, reducing the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

While customers have some bargaining power due to the availability of alternative payment methods, PayPal's strong brand and large user base mitigate this power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

PayPal has a diverse range of suppliers, including banks and payment processors, reducing the bargaining power of individual suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

While there are some barriers to entry, such as regulatory hurdles and the need for significant investment in technology and infrastructure, new entrants can still disrupt the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The digital payment industry is highly competitive, with many established players and new entrants vying for market share, leading to a high intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 34.46%
Debt Cost 4.57%
Equity Weight 65.54%
Equity Cost 11.00%
WACC 8.79%
Leverage 52.58%

11. Quality Control: PayPal Holdings, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Discover

A-Score: 6.8/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 7.8

Quality: 7.7

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Visa

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 0.8

Growth: 7.8

Quality: 8.8

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Capital One

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 4.4

Growth: 6.3

Quality: 6.3

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Nasdaq

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 2.2

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 6.7

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Amex

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 2.4

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
PayPal

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 5.1

Growth: 7.7

Quality: 7.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

61.73$

Current Price

61.73$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows