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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

PEDEVCO Corp., an oil and gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and production of oil and natural gas assets in the United States.As of December 31, 2021, the company held approximately 32,870 net Permian Basin acres located in Chaves and Roosevelt Counties, New Mexico; and approximately 11,580 net Denver-Julesberg (D-J) Basin acres located in Weld and Morgan Counties, Colorado.It had interests in 385 net wells in Permian Basin Asset; and 78 net wells in (D-J) Basin Asset.


The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.PEDEVCO Corp.is a subsidiary of SK Energy LLC.

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1.b. Last Insights on PED

Recent developments have negatively impacted PEDEVCO Corp.'s outlook. The company's leadership changes, including the appointment of a new CEO and Chief Commercial Officer, may signal uncertainty and potential disruption to its operations. Additionally, the lack of recent earnings releases or updates on its energy projects may have contributed to uncertainty among investors. Furthermore, the company's focus on energy projects may be vulnerable to fluctuations in energy prices and demand, adding to the uncertainty.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. PEDEVCo's Rockies Rollout: A Resilient Surge Amid Oil Price Volatility

Despite a 16% dip in realized crude prices, PEDEVCo surged to $15.4 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q4, up 203% YoY, while revenue hit $23.1 million. Net loss of $10.4 million for 2025, largely non‑recurring merger costs, leaves EPS at –$1.85 versus analysts’ –$0.20, underscoring the company’s aggressive growth strategy amid a modest –0.6% revenue outlook for 2026.

Publication Date: Apr -16

📋 Highlights
  • Production & Reserves Growth:: Merged Juniper portfolios boosted daily production to 5,300 BOE (from 1,500 BOE) and proved reserves to 32.1 million BOE ($27/share valuation).
  • Q4 EBITDA Surge:: Generated $15.4M adjusted EBITDA, a 203% YoY increase despite 16% lower crude oil prices.
  • Cost Optimization:: Identified $10M–13M in capital projects to reduce lease operating expenses by $1M/month ($10M–12M annual savings).
  • 2026 Guidance:: Projects $60M–70M adjusted EBITDA (based on $65/barrel oil) with $16M–20M capital allocated (90% to DJ Basin).
  • Drilling Inventory:: Holds 1,000+ identified drilling locations across Rockies, with 31 wells in production in late 2025.

Q4 Revenue & EBITDA

Q4 revenue climbed to $23.1 million, driven by a 483,159 BOE production uptick. Adjusted EBITDA of $15.4 million reflects a robust 203% YoY rise, even as crude prices fell 16%. This margin expansion highlights operational efficiency gains and the successful integration of Juniper assets, bolstering cash flow prospects.

Full‑Year Loss & Merger Impact

The full‑year net loss of $10.4 million stems chiefly from $30 million of merger fees and deferred tax charges. While the loss tempers EPS, the merger has nearly doubled proved reserves to 32.1 million BOE, positioning the firm for a 2026 adjusted EBITDA target of $60–$70 million under $65/barrel oil and $3.50/Mcf gas assumptions.

Production Growth & Asset Expansion

Production surged from 1,500 to 5,300 BOE/day post‑merger, with 5,300 BOE/day in Q4 alone. The company now controls 310,000 net acres across the D‑J, Powder River, and Permian basins, featuring an 88% liquids mix. “We hold over 1,000 identified drilling locations,” Doug Schick noted, underscoring a deep, high‑quality asset base.

Cost Optimization & Capital Efficiency

An aggressive cost‑cutting program targets $10–$13 million in capex, trimming LOE by up to $1 million/month. Anticipated annual EBITDA lift of $13–$15 million will materialize in late 2026/27, while the 2026 capex budget of $16–$20 million focuses 90% on the DJ Basin, ensuring disciplined spend.

Future Outlook & M&A Ambitions

PEDEVCo aims to scale into a mid‑cap Rockies operator, pursuing opportunistic acquisitions in the Powder River Basin. “We plan to build a larger position over time,” Schick affirmed, while maintaining a strong balance sheet (Net Debt/EBITDA –0.17) and a modest EV/EBITDA of 3.76, signaling upside potential as commodity prices recover.

3. NewsRoom

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Pedevco (NYSEAMERICAN:PED) Stock Crosses Above 50 Day Moving Average – Time to Sell?

08:53

Source: defenseworld.net

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Stonegate Capital Partners Initiates Coverage on Pedevco Corp. (PED)

Apr -07

Source: newsfilecorp.com

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PEDEVCO Corp. (PED) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Apr -02

Source: seekingalpha.com

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PEDEVCO Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results

Mar -31

Source: globenewswire.com

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PEDEVCO Announces Participation in the 38ᵗʰ Annual ROTH Conference

Mar -20

Source: globenewswire.com

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PEDEVCO Stock Scheduled to Reverse Split on Friday, March 13th (NYSE:PED)

Mar -05

Source: defenseworld.net

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PEDEVCO Reports Year-End 2025 Proved Reserves

Feb -25

Source: globenewswire.com

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Contrasting Extraction Oil & Gas (OTCMKTS:XOGAQ) and PEDEVCO (NYSE:PED)

Feb -07

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.90%)

6. Segments

Oil

Expected Growth: 5%

PEDEVCO Corp.'s 5% growth in oil production is driven by increased drilling activities in the Permian Basin, improved operational efficiency, and higher crude oil prices. Additionally, the company's focus on cost reduction and strategic acquisitions have contributed to the growth. Furthermore, increasing demand for oil and gas, particularly in the Asian market, has also supported the growth.

Natural Gas

Expected Growth: 4%

PEDEVCO Corp.'s natural gas segment growth is driven by increasing demand from power generation and industrial sectors, coupled with strategic acquisitions and exploration activities. Additionally, favorable government policies and declining production costs contribute to the 4% growth rate.

Natural Gas Liquids

Expected Growth: 3%

PEDEVCO Corp.'s Natural Gas Liquids segment growth is driven by increasing demand for petrochemical feedstocks, growing global energy demand, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, improving operational efficiencies, expanding midstream infrastructure, and favorable pricing environment contribute to the 3% growth rate.

7. Detailed Products

Pacific Energy

Pacific Energy is a leading provider of oil and gas production services, offering a range of solutions for the exploration, production, and transportation of hydrocarbons.

Pacific Energy Drilling

Pacific Energy Drilling provides drilling services for oil and gas wells, offering a range of drilling technologies and expertise.

Pacific Energy Production

Pacific Energy Production provides production services for oil and gas wells, offering a range of solutions for well optimization, production enhancement, and facilities management.

Pacific Energy Midstream

Pacific Energy Midstream provides midstream services for oil and gas transportation, storage, and processing, offering a range of solutions for pipeline transportation, terminaling, and processing.

8. PEDEVCO Corp.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for PEDEVCO Corp. is medium, as the company operates in a niche market with limited alternatives, but still faces some competition from other oil and gas companies.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for PEDEVCO Corp. is low, as the company's customers are largely dependent on the company's oil and gas products, giving the company significant pricing power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for PEDEVCO Corp. is medium, as the company relies on a few key suppliers for its operations, but still has some flexibility to negotiate prices and terms.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for PEDEVCO Corp. is high, as the oil and gas industry is highly competitive and new companies can easily enter the market, posing a threat to the company's market share.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for PEDEVCO Corp. is high, as the company operates in a highly competitive industry with many established players, leading to intense competition for market share and pricing power.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 0.32%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 99.68%
Equity Cost 6.44%
WACC 6.43%
Leverage 0.32%

11. Quality Control: PEDEVCO Corp. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Talos Energy

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 9.2

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
PEDEVCO

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 8.9

Growth: 7.3

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Calumet Specialty Products Partners

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 2.4

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Ring Energy

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 9.3

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Vivakor

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 2.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
USE

A-Score: 2.5/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 2.2

Quality: 2.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

15.05$

Current Price

15.05$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows