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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Personalis, Inc.operates as a cancer genomics company worldwide.The company provides sequencing and data analysis services to support the development of cancer therapies and large-scale genetic research programs.


It offers NeXT Platform, which provides data analysis for tumor and its immune microenvironment, from a single limited tissue or plasma sample; ImmunoID Next for tumor profiling from tissue; NeXT Liquid Biopsy for tumor profiling from plasma; NeXT Personal, a liquid biopsy offering for personalized tumor tracking for patients; NeXT Dx Test, a genomic cancer profiling test enabling composite biomarkers for cancer treatment; and NeXT SHERPA and NeXT NEOPS for neoantigen prediction capabilities.The company also provides ACE platform for clinical and therapeutic applications such as neoantigen prediction, biomarker identification, and novel drug target selection.It serves biopharmaceutical customers, universities, non-profits, and government entities.


The company has partnership with Mayo Clinic; MapKure, LLC; SpringWorks Therapeutics, Inc.; and Moores Cancer Center.Personalis, Inc.was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Menlo Park, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on PSNL

The recent 3 months performance of Personalis, Inc. was negatively impacted by the company's struggles with profitability, despite its strong financial position and promising products like NeXT Personal and ImmunoID NeXT. The company's test reimbursement issues have affected its gross margins, and profitability is projected to be years away, possibly until 2029. Additionally, the company's partnerships with Tempus AI and Merck provide capital and credibility, but have not yet translated into significant revenue growth.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Personalis Delivers Strong Q4 2025 Results with 239% Growth in Biopharma MRD Revenue

Personalis reported revenue of $17.3 million for the fourth quarter of 2025, with a gross margin of 11%. The company's full-year revenue was $69.6 million, reflecting a transitional period. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at -$0.25804, beating estimates of -$0.31. The company's biopharma MRD revenue grew by 239% year-over-year, driven by its winning MRD strategy and scaling Clinical volumes.

Publication Date: Mar -03

📋 Highlights
  • Q4 Clinical Tests Growth:: Delivered 6,183 clinical tests, +41% sequential, +329% YoY.
  • MRD Biopharma Revenue Surge:: 240% YoY growth in MRD biopharma revenue to $17.3M in Q4.
  • 2026 Revenue Guidance:: Total revenue $78–80M, driven by clinical ($10–11M) and biopharma ($20–21M).
  • Medicare Coverage Progress:: Achieved 2 decisions; 3 dossiers submitted, including breast cancer approval.
  • Financial Position:: $240M cash/reserves, net loss guidance of $105M, $100M cash burn expected in 2026.

Clinical Volume Growth

The company delivered 6,183 Clinical tests in the fourth quarter, a 41% sequential growth over the third quarter of 2025 and a 329% increase year-over-year. Personalis is guiding to 43,000 to 45,000 tests in 2026, a 170% growth year-over-year. The company's Clinical business is thriving, with a focus on building market share and driving revenue growth.

Revenue Guidance

Personalis expects total revenue to be in the range of $78 million to $80 million in 2026, driven by Clinical revenue and biopharma MRD revenue. The company's guidance implies a significant acceleration in revenue growth, with Clinical revenue expected to contribute $10 million to $11 million and MRD revenue from pharma test and services expected to contribute $20 million to $21 million.

Valuation Metrics

Using the current stock price, the company's Price-to-Sales Ratio is 11.55, indicating a premium valuation. The EV/EBITDA ratio is -10.02, suggesting that the company's enterprise value is not yet supported by its earnings. With an ROE of -39.13% and an ROIC of -29.9%, the company's profitability metrics remain challenging.

Growth Prospects

Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 37.2%, driven by the company's investments in MRD and Clinical. Personalis is confident in its ability to gain market share against larger players, with a focus on driving deeper within existing accounts and going broader. The company's strong balance sheet, with cash and short-term investments of $240 million and no debt, provides a solid foundation for future growth.

Cash Flow and Margin Expectations

The company expects to use approximately $100 million in cash in 2026, with a net loss of around $105 million. Gross margin is expected to be in the range of 15% to 20%, with the first quarter potentially being the lowest point of the year. As Christopher Hall noted, "We're stepping on the gas and going fast while the window is open," indicating a heightened focus on investment and expansion.

3. NewsRoom

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Personalis, Inc. (NASDAQ:PSNL) Sees Large Increase in Short Interest

Mar -06

Source: defenseworld.net

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Personalis, Inc. (PSNL) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -27

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Personalis (PSNL) Reports Q4 Loss, Misses Revenue Estimates

Feb -26

Source: zacks.com

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Personalis Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results and Recent Highlights

Feb -26

Source: businesswire.com

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Personalis (NASDAQ:PSNL) Shares Down 4.8% – Time to Sell?

Feb -22

Source: defenseworld.net

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Personalis (PSNL) to Release Earnings on Thursday

Feb -19

Source: defenseworld.net

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Personalis to Participate in the TD Cowen 46th Annual Healthcare Conference

Feb -17

Source: businesswire.com

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Personalis Gets Medicare Coverage For Lung Cancer Surveillance Test

Feb -10

Source: feeds.benzinga.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.75%)

6. Segments

Pharma Tests and Services

Expected Growth: 10.8%

Personalis, Inc.'s Pharma Tests and Services segment growth of 10.8% is driven by increasing adoption of precision medicine, growing demand for biomarker discovery, and expansion of its sequencing-based testing services. Additionally, strategic partnerships with pharmaceutical companies and increasing investment in research and development are contributing to the segment's growth.

Enterprise

Expected Growth: 10.43%

Personalis, Inc.'s 10.43% growth is driven by increasing adoption of its precision medicine platform, expansion into new therapeutic areas, and strategic partnerships with pharmaceutical companies. Additionally, growing demand for personalized cancer therapies and increasing investment in genomics research contribute to the company's rapid growth.

Population Sequencing

Expected Growth: 11.67%

Personalis, Inc.'s 11.67% growth in Population Sequencing is driven by increasing adoption of precision medicine, growing demand for genetic testing, and advancements in sequencing technologies. Additionally, partnerships with pharmaceutical companies and government agencies, as well as expanding applications in cancer research and rare disease diagnosis, contribute to the segment's growth.

Other

Expected Growth: 14.07%

Personalis, Inc.'s 14.07% growth is driven by increasing adoption of its neoantigen-based cancer vaccines, expansion into new markets, and growing demand for personalized medicine. Additionally, strategic partnerships, investments in R&D, and a strong intellectual property portfolio contribute to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Neonatal and Pediatric Whole Genome Sequencing

Comprehensive genomic testing for newborns and children to identify genetic disorders and inform personalized care

Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing (NIPT)

Prenatal screening for chromosomal abnormalities and genetic disorders using cell-free DNA from maternal blood

Hereditary Cancer Testing

Genetic testing for hereditary cancer risk, including BRCA1, BRCA2, and other genes associated with increased cancer risk

Pharmacogenomics Testing

Genetic testing to predict response to medications and inform personalized treatment plans

Whole Exome Sequencing

Comprehensive genetic testing for rare genetic disorders and undiagnosed diseases

Genomic Data Interpretation and Reporting

Expert interpretation and reporting of genomic data to inform clinical decision-making

8. Personalis, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Personalis, Inc. has a moderate threat of substitutes due to the presence of alternative genetic testing and analysis services. However, the company's proprietary technology and expertise in neoantigen-based cancer vaccines provide a competitive advantage.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Personalis, Inc. has a low bargaining power of customers due to its strong relationships with pharmaceutical and biotech companies, which rely on its services for cancer vaccine development.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Personalis, Inc. has a moderate bargaining power of suppliers due to its dependence on a few key suppliers for genetic sequencing and other services. However, the company's strong relationships with these suppliers mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

Personalis, Inc. faces a high threat of new entrants due to the growing demand for genetic testing and analysis services, which attracts new companies to the market. However, the company's proprietary technology and expertise provide a barrier to entry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Personalis, Inc. operates in a highly competitive market with several established players, leading to a high intensity of rivalry. The company's competitive advantage lies in its proprietary technology and expertise in neoantigen-based cancer vaccines.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 7.60%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 92.40%
Equity Cost 13.46%
WACC 12.74%
Leverage 8.22%

11. Quality Control: Personalis, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Personalis

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 3.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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VolitionRx

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 6.3

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Bionano Genomics

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 1.0

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T2 Biosystems

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Aclaris Therapeutics

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 6.7

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Inotiv

A-Score: 2.8/10

Value: 9.0

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 2.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

8.31$

Current Price

8.31$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows