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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Rigetti Computing, Inc.operates as an integrated systems company.The company builds quantum computers and the superconducting quantum processors that power them.


Its machines are integrated into various public, private, or hybrid clouds through its Quantum Cloud Services platform.The company was founded in 2013 and is based in Berkeley, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on RGTI

Rigetti Computing's recent performance is driven by advancements in quantum computing technology and expanded global partnerships, as seen in its expected strong Q3 2024 performance. The company's growing influence in the quantum computing space, expanding clientele, and increasing adoption of its services have contributed to its rising stock price. Additionally, Rigetti's recent news of a significant development could have long-term implications for shareholders, further boosting investor confidence.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Rigetti's Q4 2025 Earnings: A Year of Technical Validation and Disciplined Execution

Rigetti reported revenue of $1.9 million for Q4 2025, down from $2.3 million in Q4 2024. The gross margin for the quarter was 35%, compared to 44% in the same period last year. The GAAP net loss for Q4 2025 was lower than the GAAP loss for Q4 2024, primarily due to the non-cash change in the fair value of derivative warrant and earn-out liabilities. The actual EPS came out at -$0.03, beating estimates of -$0.05. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 133.9%, indicating a significant increase in sales.

Publication Date: Mar -08

📋 Highlights
  • Gate Fidelity Progress: Achieved 99.9% 2-qubit gate fidelity at 28ns speed using Adiabatic CZ, with 99.7% median fidelity on 150+ qubit systems by late 2026.
  • System Deployments: Delivered 84-qubit cloud systems and 36-qubit chiplet-based systems, validating scalable architecture for thousands of qubits.
  • Partnerships: Collaborated with NVIDIA on NVQLink integration and Riverlane for real-time error correction, enhancing hybrid quantum-AI capabilities.
  • Financials: Ended 2025 with $590M cash, Q4 revenue of $1.9M (down from $2.3M in 2024), and expects $5.7M Novera order revenue in Q1 2026.
  • Quantum Roadmap: Targets 1,000+ qubit systems with 99.8% fidelity in 2 years, 3-year timeline for commercial quantum advantage.

Financial Performance and Guidance

For the first quarter of 2026, Rigetti expects significant revenue growth driven by the portion of the $5.7 million Novera on-premises system purchase orders expected to ship in Q1. The company also expects to recognize revenue from the C-DAC order in the second half of 2026. With a cash balance of approximately $590 million, Rigetti has the flexibility and runway to execute its roadmap through the quantum advantage timeframe.

Operational Highlights and Roadmap

Rigetti achieved several key milestones in 2025, including a 2-qubit gate fidelity as high as 99.9% at 28 nanosecond gate speed on a ProDrive platform. The company deployed multiple systems to the cloud, including an 84-qubit monolithic chip system and a 36-qubit chiplet-based system. Looking ahead, Rigetti plans to deploy a 108-qubit system at 99.5% median 2-qubit gate fidelity by the end of March and a system with more than 150-qubits with an anticipated 99.7% median 2-qubit gate fidelity around the end of December 2026.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/S Ratio of 792.01 and an EV/EBITDA of -21.7, Rigetti's valuation suggests that the market is pricing in significant growth prospects. The company's ROE is -51.53%, and ROIC is -12.89%, indicating that it is still in the investment phase. As Rigetti approaches quantum advantage, expected to be around three years from now, the interest in its technology is likely to increase, driving revenue growth and potentially improving valuation metrics.

3. NewsRoom

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Can Rigetti's Technology Breakthroughs Accelerate Quantum Progress?

Mar -09

Source: zacks.com

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Rigetti Is Starting To Look Interesting Again

Mar -09

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) Stock Price Down 4.4% on Analyst Downgrade

Mar -06

Source: defenseworld.net

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Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Mar -05

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Why Is Rigetti Computing Stock Sinking Today

Mar -05

Source: gurufocus.com

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Rigetti Computing shares slump on Q4 revenue miss

Mar -05

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

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RGTI Stock Down Despite Q4 Earnings Top Estimates, Revenues Decline Y/Y

Mar -05

Source: zacks.com

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Thursday's Earnings Movers: RGTI Narrows Losses, AEO & STUB Sell Off

Mar -05

Source: youtube.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (38.08%)

6. Segments

Collaborative Research, Other Professional Services and Related Materials

Expected Growth: 39.1%

Rigetti Computing, Inc.'s 39.1% growth in Collaborative Research, Other Professional Services, and Related Materials is driven by increasing adoption of quantum computing solutions, strategic partnerships, and expansion into new markets. Growing demand for quantum-inspired AI and machine learning applications, as well as government investments in quantum research, also contribute to this growth.

Quantum Computing Systems

Expected Growth: 32.95%

Rigetti Computing's 32.95% growth in Quantum Computing Systems is driven by increasing adoption in industries like finance, healthcare, and materials science, where complex simulations and optimizations are critical. Government investments in quantum research, advancements in quantum algorithms, and growing demand for cloud-based quantum computing services also contribute to this growth.

7. Detailed Products

Rigetti Quantum Cloud

A full-stack quantum computing platform that provides access to quantum processors, a quantum machine learning platform, and a suite of software development tools.

Rigetti Quantum Machine Learning (QML)

A software platform that enables the development of quantum machine learning models and integrates with popular machine learning frameworks.

Rigetti Quantum Development Environment (QDE)

A suite of software development tools for building, testing, and deploying quantum algorithms and applications.

Rigetti Quantum Processor Units (QPUs)

A cloud-based quantum computing platform that provides access to Rigetti's quantum processors.

Rigetti Quantum Consulting Services

Expert consulting services to help organizations explore the potential of quantum computing and develop quantum-enabled solutions.

8. Rigetti Computing, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Rigetti Computing, Inc. faces moderate threat from substitutes due to the presence of alternative quantum computing technologies and classical computing methods.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Rigetti Computing, Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers, giving the company an upper hand in negotiations.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Rigetti Computing, Inc. relies on a few key suppliers for its quantum computing hardware and software components, giving them moderate bargaining power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The quantum computing industry is rapidly evolving, and new entrants with significant resources and expertise can easily disrupt the market, posing a high threat to Rigetti Computing, Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The quantum computing industry is highly competitive, with multiple players vying for market share, leading to a high intensity of rivalry among companies like Rigetti Computing, Inc.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 18.13%
Debt Cost 16.20%
Equity Weight 81.87%
Equity Cost 16.20%
WACC 16.20%
Leverage 22.14%

11. Quality Control: Rigetti Computing, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Rigetti Computing

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 0.3

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Fathom Digital

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 0.7

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Stratasys

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 9.0

Growth: 2.3

Quality: 3.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 3.0

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Corsair Gaming

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 2.7

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 3.0

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Key Tronic

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 2.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 4.0

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Red Cat Holdings

A-Score: 2.6/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 2.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 0.3

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

17.6$

Current Price

17.6$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows